The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[lorddemaxus]

2 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

It will be very saddening if AQP2 failed to beat GvK's opening. It is a full theatrical release with higher capacity allowance and theater count  , combined with the fact that AQP1 made more money than KOTM and 2 months worth of progress in term of vaccination and reduction in outbreak.  

 

If all those improvement don't warrant a at least 40m 3 days opening (Ideally 50m), I don't know what else need to be done.  

I think considering that GvK wouldve opened to double of AQP2 normally, I think AQP2 opening below GvK's opening wouldn't be that bad. I think the comparison here should be with MK. Both movies would've probably opened similarly normally and it would be fine if it opens high-20s or low-30s.

[titanic2187]

3 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

I think considering that GvK wouldve opened to double of AQP2 normally, I think AQP2 opening below GvK's opening wouldn't be that bad. I think the comparison here should be with MK. Both movies would've probably opened similarly normally and it would be fine if it opens high-20s or low-30s.

Why simply refuse to demand more when clearly there should be an appetite and capacity to do more?  

[Cooper Legion]

12 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Why simply refuse to demand more when clearly there should be an appetite and capacity to do more?  

You can’t just wish a movie into doing more than it would have in normalcy, and for all we know AQP2 in normalcy could have debuted at low 30s or something.  
 

We’re past the point when a weak debut necessarily tells us where the market ceiling is — now sometimes a weak debut will just be a movie having a weak debut for normal reasons, below the market ceiling.

Edited May 15, 2021 by WandaLegion

[titanic2187]

1 minute ago, WandaLegion said:

You can’t just wish a movie into doing more than it would have in normalcy, and for all we know AQP2 in normalcy could have debuted at low 30s or something.  
 

We’re past the point when a weak debut necessarily tells us where the market ceiling is — now sometimes a weak debut will just be a movie having a weak debut for normal reasons, below the market ceiling.

All tracking for AQP2 before the world went down suggest 50m-70m in the range. If i can recall properly, even the PS confirm the range. 

 

Also, 30m-35m isn't bad but simply not good enough because by now, we should have already started to gauge how close we can recover to pre-pandemic level. Not only theater attendance, but also GDP, unemployment rate, all sort of metrics.     

 

 

[john2000]

25 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

You can’t just wish a movie into doing more than it would have in normalcy, and for all we know AQP2 in normalcy could have debuted at low 30s or something.  
 

We’re past the point when a weak debut necessarily tells us where the market ceiling is — now sometimes a weak debut will just be a movie having a weak debut for normal reasons, below the market ceiling.

sorry , but for a quit place 2 as of now what are the ow predictions ?

[Tinalera]

16 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

Is it possible the covid situation got people to postpone their ticket booking due to concern of the theater may be closed or movie could be postponed?

At least that is the case in my country where online booking during pandemic era have been backloaded,   

It wouldn't surprise me. Alot of confused messaging can be out there. I know where I am in Canada (Ontario) its been pretty much all stuff shutdown till June 2, and because the theatres pretty much are under one umbrella (Cineplex), there isn't the situation where it is in the states where are competing movie chains that may have very different opening and operating depending on county, city and state.

[Tinalera]

15 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

It will be very saddening if AQP2 failed to beat GvK's opening. It is a full theatrical release with higher capacity allowance and theater count  , combined with the fact that AQP1 made more money than KOTM and 2 months worth of progress in term of vaccination and reduction in outbreak.  

 

If all those improvement don't warrant a at least 40m 3 days opening (Ideally 50m), I don't know what else need to be done.  

Also with the film announcing it's going to streaming 45 days after theatre release, how much will that affect people who may have gone but now will be "Ill just wait a month and a half and watch it".

 

The other side of course is also people wanting to get out for ANY sense of normality to get to a theatre. So just more variables really. Tales will be in the numbers

 

Edited May 15, 2021 by Tinalera

[Tinalera]

3 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

delete

 

Edited May 15, 2021 by Tinalera

[Inceptionzq]

On 5/14/2021 at 3:55 PM, Inceptionzq said:

A Quiet Place 2 Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

79

1594

4.96%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

43

1415

3.04%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
254	26	12668	2.01%	14	68
$150 PWPs:	3
$200 PWPs:	1
$250 PWPs:	1
$300 PWPs:	1
Total	6

 

Showings added: 11

Seats added: 1418

 

Adjusted GvK comp: 3.29M

A Quiet Place 2 Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

81

1594

5.08%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

45

1415

3.18%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
273	19	12828	2.13%	14	70
$150 PWPs:	3
$200 PWPs:	1
$250 PWPs:	1
$300 PWPs:	1
Total	6

 

Showings added: 2

Seats added: 160

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Cruella Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

2

654

0.31%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

19

749

2.54%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
27	N/A	4013	0.67%	11	32
$150 PWPs:	3
$200 PWPs:	1
$250 PWPs:	1
$300 PWPs:	1
Total	6

 

Just to note, the PWPs will be the same for A Quiet Place and Cruella since they're releasing on the same day.

Cruella Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

8

654

1.22%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

32

749

4.27%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
62	35	4317	1.44%	11	34
$150 PWPs:	3
$200 PWPs:	1
$250 PWPs:	1
$300 PWPs:	1
Total	6

 

Showings added: 2

Seats added: 304

[babz06]

9 hours ago, john2000 said:

sorry , but for a quit place 2 as of now what are the ow predictions ?

BO.com is predicting 30-50m OW range for the 4-day weekend.

I personally think thats too high.

 

 

Edited May 15, 2021 by babz06

[charlie Jatinder]

AQP2 wait till final weekdays. It will do well.

 

[Eric Prime]

On 5/14/2021 at 11:07 PM, Eric the Jigsaw Killer said:

A Quiet Place Part II Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting (Thu+Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	152	402	14577	2.76%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 8

Total Seats Added Today: 1,872

Total Seats Sold Today: 30

 

Comp

0.417x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-13 Before Release (4.04M)

1.415x of Mortal Kombat T-13 Before Release (12.9M)

 

I know the seat count addition seems pretty extreme, but I updated all the seat counts because a lot of theaters I only put at 40% capacity. There was an allowance of 50% capacity here in PA starting Monday IIRC, so I'm just updating accordingly.

 

Anyways, pretty meh day today. This will be a bit of a pattern, let me tell you

A Quiet Place Part II Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting (Thu+Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	152	453	14577	3.11%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 51

 

Comp

0.457x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-12 Before Release (4.43M)

1.420x of Mortal Kombat T-12 Before Release (12.91M)

[Eric Prime]

23 hours ago, Eric the Jigsaw Killer said:

Cruella Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting (Thu+Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	79	67	7377	0.91%

 

Some people will probably start to proclaim doom and gloom, and I'll admit this is a soft start, especially considering the promo and reaction blitz just hit today. However, it's still a bit early IMO to really say anything definitive, so I guess we'll just see what happens

Cruella Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting (Thu+Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	79	87	7377	1.18%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 20

[Eric Prime]

23 hours ago, Eric the Jigsaw Killer said:

The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-21 and Counting (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	41	23	4426	0.52%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 9

The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-20 and Counting (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	41	38	4426	0.86%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 15

[Porthos]

You know, I think I have to give Regal some credit.  Looks like they are letting us peons know which movie is getting a PWP on their site.

 

Take a look at this screenshot:

 

 

and this one:

 

 

Yesterday (and for about a week now) the PWP had a 7pm and a 10pm showing as being available while there was not a separate sold out 10pm showing for AQP Part II.

 

Seems like a pretty massive coincidence for a 10pm PWP to disappear and for a 10pm sold out showing to show up on AQP Part II; on a separate field no less.

 

Occam's Razor tells me that it ain't a coincidence.  No idea if other Regal theaters are operating this way, but I presume so.

 

That means, if they continue with this, that we will know how many PWPs are being sold for various flicks at Regals.  Presuming that we catch the showings available for a PWP before they get shifted.

 

(in the middle of the AQP II report, but I have some jiggering of my sheets to add a Regal PWP field, plus actually gathering the data)

Edited May 16, 2021 by Porthos

[Porthos]

On 5/14/2021 at 10:57 PM, Porthos said:

A Quiet Place Part II Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	5	69	2516	3061	545	17.80%

 

Total Sellouts Removed Today	1
Total Showings Added Today	6
Total Seats Added Today	333
Total Seats Sold Today	31

 

T-13 Comp      VERY LOL AT THIS POINT - USE AT OWN RISK

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
GvK	67.70		126	805		1/99	3170/3976	20.25%		6.50m

NOTE: Tickets have been on sale for five days longer for AQP Part II than GvK had been on sale locally this far from their respective premieres. 

 

===

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Cinemark ($149)

8

 

A Quiet Place Part II Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	5	71	2472	3061	589	19.24%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2*
Total Seats Added Today	n/a
Total Seats Sold Today	44

* NOTE: The two new showings added were from a theater which is non-reserved seating, and thus has no seat count available.

 

T-12 Comp      VERY LOL AT THIS POINT - USE AT OWN RISK

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
GvK	57.07		227	1032		3/101	3138/4170	24.75%		5.48m

NOTE: Tickets have been on sale for five days longer for AQP Part II than GvK had been on sale locally this far from their respective premieres. 

 

===

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Cinemark ($149)

8

 

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Regal ($199)	1
Adjusted Seats	22

NOTE: PWP adj = 16 seats for Cinemark [$149/$9.25 - rounded down], 14 seats for Cinema West [$130/$9.25 - rounded down], and 22 seats for Regal [$199/$9.25 - rounded up]

See further explanation for why I am approximating PWPs and why they should be viewed with at least some skepticism for Cinemark and Cinema West in this post.  However, it appears that we can track Regal PWPs to the movie purchased, as mentioned in this later post.

 

SECOND NOTE:  Since A Quiet Place Part II and Cruella are both debuting on the same day and both have PWPs available for purchase, I am not approximating the tickets sold at Cinemark and Cinema West locations for either movie on this track.  For the record, however, 8 PWP showings were purchased before tickets for Cruella  went on sale, for an approximation of 128 tickets.

Edited May 16, 2021 by Porthos

[Cookson]

So GvK is 5m away from 100m. No way WB doesn’t fudge that to 100m. Most likely will put it as a double feature and do whatever to get it there. 
 

With still Japan to open to, 450 worldwide could happen.

Edited May 16, 2021 by Cookson

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

A Quiet Place 2 Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

81

1594

5.08%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

45

1415

3.18%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
273	19	12828	2.13%	14	70
$150 PWPs:	3
$200 PWPs:	1
$250 PWPs:	1
$300 PWPs:	1
Total	6

 

Showings added: 2

Seats added: 160

A Quiet Place 2 Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

86

1594

5.40%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

48

1415

3.39%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
294	21	12828	2.29%	14	70
$150 PWPs:	3
$200 PWPs:	1
$250 PWPs:	1
$300 PWPs:	1
Total	6

 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Cruella Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

8

654

1.22%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

32

749

4.27%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
62	35	4317	1.44%	11	34
$150 PWPs:	3
$200 PWPs:	1
$250 PWPs:	1
$300 PWPs:	1
Total	6

 

Showings added: 2

Seats added: 304

Cruella Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

13

654

1.99%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

34

749

4.54%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
81	19	4317	1.88%	11	34
$150 PWPs:	3
$200 PWPs:	1
$250 PWPs:	1
$300 PWPs:	1
Total	6