The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Joyous Legion]

V1 looked like it should open in the 40s in the first place to me, so just returning back to earth 👀 
 

If this does open way down, not so long after TSS, I don’t think it will be like, a super super mystery. Normal sequel behavior is to drop on OW and total. Especially if the first entry overperformed. Especially if the first entry has pretty mixed reception.    
 

On the other hand, it’s only been a few days. I don’t want to write any premature obits. Especially as I was down on V1 in 2018 and then it did end up exploding in the final few days. While I’m skeptical that a sequel will massively overperform, say, an F9 comp which also had a big final surge, crazier things have happened.

[Pinacolada]

3 minutes ago, Legion of the Ten Crores said:

V1 looked like it should open in the 40s in the first place to me, so just returning back to earth 👀 
 

If this does open way down, not so long after TSS, I don’t think it will be like, a super super mystery. Normal sequel behavior is to drop on OW and total. Especially if the first entry overperformed. Especially if the first entry has pretty mixed reception.    
 

On the other hand, it’s only been a few days. I don’t want to write any premature obits. Especially as I was down on V1 in 2018 and then it did end up exploding in the final few days. While I’m skeptical that a sequel will massively overperform, say, an F9 comp which also had a big final surge, crazier things have happened.

I see. Thanks!

[charlie Jatinder]

we are in down phase of U curve now. it don't really matter much. all eyes on final 4 days bump now. first day suggested 7M ish previews, let's see if that turns out to be true.

[Porthos]

On 9/11/2021 at 11:14 PM, Porthos said:

 

Venom: Let There Be Carnage Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-19 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	150	24672	25241	569	2.25%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	88
Total Seats Sold Today	62

 

Day 4 Comp

	%		Sold Day 4	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	97.60		34	583		0/92	13400/13983	4.17%		7.26m
TSS	219.69		18	259		0/81	13693/13952	1.86%		9.23m
SC	58.84		121	967		0/101	16035/17002	5.69%		5.18m

COMP NOTE: The F9 Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955). Neither the TSS nor the SC Comp have been adjusted.

 

Day 4 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold Day 4	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	35.31		105	1603		0/104	16583/18186	8.81%		4.88m
V2 (adj)	---		62	566		0/136	22515/230814	2.45%		---

COMP NOTE: The BW Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: V2 (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in BW's track.

 

Regal: 139/6823 [2.04% sold] [+7 tickets]

 

===

 

Compared to other markets, another strong day.  A tad deceptively though as it was pretty top heavy at Century Arden and a couple of other theaters which saw a spurt in sales.  I expect it to come down a fair degree tomorrow.

 

I was thinking about switching to T-X comps tomorrow, but that would mean losing Shang-Chi for a day and rather than muck with my charts two days in a row, just gonna switch to T-x comps on Monday.  The Black Widow comp is gonna take a hit owing to it having a five day head start and likewise the Shang-Chi comp is gonna shoot up due to Venom 2 having a five day head start. The other two comps will see no change (TSS) and a negligible one (one more day of pre-sales).

 

Venom: Let There Be Carnage Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-18 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	150	24618	25241	623	2.47%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

54

 

Day 5 Comp

	%		Sold Day 5	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	97.50		56	639		0/93	13462/14101	4.53%		7.25m
TSS	232.46		9	268		0/81	13684/13952	1.92%		9.76m
SC	58.55		97	1064		0/101	15983/17002	6.26%		5.15m

COMP NOTE: The F9 Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955). Neither the TSS nor the SC Comp have been adjusted.

 

Day 5 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold Day 5	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	35.92		95	1698		0/104	16488/18186	9.34%		4.97m
V2 (adj)	---		44	610		0/136	22471/23081	2.64%		---

COMP NOTE: The BW Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: V2 (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in BW's track.

 

Regal: 146/6823 [2.14% sold] [+7 tickets]

 

====

 

T-x comps for all movies, starting tomorrow.

Edited September 14, 2021 by Porthos

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Venom was such a surprise novelty hit, it was probably presumptuous to suggest the sequel could near it. It was the solo film of one of Marvel's most popular villains with very publicized marketing. The sequel doesn't include anything new besides adding Carnage. Yes, Carnage is popular but that's not enough to draw in new crowd. Similar somewhat to Deadpool. The first was a surprise sensation opening to 132m. The sequel opened to 110m.  

 

And yes, Sony's messy release rollout has probably impacted the buzz/awareness to an extent

[Old Crow]

6 hours ago, filmlover said:

I have seen literally no ads on TV for Cry Macho. Complete dump incoming.

 

Theaters are probably hoping for great holds from Shang-Chi until the October blockbusters get here.

I have seen some light advertising for Cry Macho during football games.

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Venom was such a surprise novelty hit, it was probably presumptuous to suggest the sequel could near it. It was the solo film of one of Marvel's most popular villains with very publicized marketing. The sequel doesn't include anything new besides adding Carnage. Yes, Carnage is popular but that's not enough to draw in new crowd. Similar somewhat to Deadpool. The first was a surprise sensation opening to 132m. The sequel opened to 110m.  

 

And yes, Sony's messy release rollout has probably impacted the buzz/awareness to an extent

Don't know where you got that number for DP2. It opened very close to the first iirc. 

 

Edit: Yeah checking it, opened to 125.5 million. 

Edited September 13, 2021 by Menor

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 9/9/2021 at 10:42 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Day one comps for Venom

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	% Sold
T-21	Suicide Squad	Jacksonville	5	20	3,795	32	0.84%
		Phoenix	5	16	3,146	52	1.65%
		Raleigh	7	23	3,086	56	1.81%
	Suicide Squad Total		17	59	10,027	140	1.40%
T-21	Venom 2	Jacksonville	5	51	8,576	65	0.76%
		Phoenix	6	46	8,738	83	0.95%
		Raleigh	7	31	4,117	74	1.80%
	Venom 2 Total		18	128	21,431	222	1.04%

 

Somehow, T-21 for F9 was my first day of tracking sales; I don't have show counts but F9 had sold 272 tickets in these markets through T-21.  I didn't have time to grab Shang-Chi day 1 sales in Jacksonville or Phoenix, but I have Raleigh down for 175 tickets ~42%.  

 

Rough comps for Venom 2

Shang-Chi (day 1 Raleigh only) - .42x (3.7m)

TSS (day 1 = T-21) - 1.586x (6.5m)

F9 (day ? = T-21) - .816x (5.79m)

 

Average - 5.33m

 

Can probably throw out the SC comp at least until I had full numbers.  Let's say around 6m projection just from day 1 of sales.   As others have mentioned, there are a ton of showtimes, enough to warrant some broad comparisons against final numbers...

 

Venom previews (as of today)

Standard - 1,920 theaters; 9,741 shows

3D - 831 theaters; 1,543 shows

IMAX - 286 theaters; 783 shows

Total: 1,934 unique theaters; 12,067 shows

 

For comparison, here are my highest final preview show counts (done Friday morning after previews)

 

Black Widow - 23,129 (3,409 theaters)

Shang-Chi - 15,697 (3,523)

F9 - 15,241 (3,491)

A Quiet Place 2 - 15,220 (3,320)

Venom 2 - 12,067 (1,934)

The Suicide Squad - 9,701 (3,604)

Jungle Cruise - 9,677 (3,334)

Cruella - 9,435 (3,376)

Free Guy - 8,348 (3,318)

 

Could reach BW volume of shows by preview time.

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-17	Venom 2	Jacksonville	5	51	8,576	106	41*	1.24%
		Phoenix	6	46	8,738	143	60*	1.64%
		Raleigh	7	32	4,286	104	30*	2.43%
	Venom 2 Total		18	129	21,600	353	131*	1.63%
T-3	Copshop	Jacksonville	5	9	862	2	2	0.23%
		Phoenix	4	8	864	1	1	0.12%
		Raleigh	7	14	1,462	1	1	0.07%
	Copshop Total		16	31	3,188	4	4	0.13%
T-4	Cry Macho	Jacksonville	5	17	2,121	3	3	0.14%
		Phoenix	3	8	1,070	4	4	0.37%
		Raleigh	8	27	3,521	24	24	0.68%
	Cry Macho Total		16	52	6,712	31	31	0.46%

 

A few things to unpack here.  First, I don't know what Copshop is, but it seems like everyone else might be in the same boat.  For a few T-3 comps in that range we have Queenpins (6), Joe Bell (6) and House Next Door (5).  Cry Macho is faring a little better, at least in Raleigh.  T-4 comps could be Reminiscence (24), Protege (29), and Stillwater (21).

 

Venom 2 sales look alright, I suppose.  New sales are new since T-21 (four days of sales).  

 

Venom comps

TSS - 1.626x (6.67m)

F9 - .8x (5.68m)

 

Average - 6.18m

[LegendaryBen]

@el sid When you do Cry Macho comparisons, please compare them to Those Who Wish Me Dead, Reminiscence, and Malignant. As for Copshop, I'm thinking it will open at $3m OW at best.

[WrathOfHan]

Universal's rolling out last minute advance screenings of Dear Evan Hansen to colleges this week. They only do this when something is tracking poorly, so uh...  

[CJohn]

4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Universal's rolling out last minute advance screenings of Dear Evan Hansen to colleges this week. They only do this when something is tracking poorly, so uh...  

Is there anything not tracking poorly tho?

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, CJ Sarandos said:

Is there anything not tracking poorly tho?

Nothing is tracking as poorly as Dear Evan Hansen aside from COPSHOP  

[CJohn]

6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Nothing is tracking as poorly as Dear Evan Hansen aside from COPSHOP  

Yeah, I am sure Cry Macho will make millions September is death. Nobody is gonna go to a theater in the middle of a PANDEMIC to see this trash. Similar and better options will be available at home with no COVID risk.

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, CJ Sarandos said:

Yeah, I am sure Cry Macho will make millions September is death. Nobody is gonna go to a theater in the middle of a PANDEMIC to see this trash. Similar and better options will be available at home with no COVID risk.

7M for Cry Macho is better than 6M for DEH  

[CJohn]

11 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

7M for Cry Macho is better than 6M for DEH  

Try maybe 4M for Cry Macho. Maybe.

[filmlover]

Another Broadway adaptation is looking to bite the dust. The only one of these flops that's truly gonna sting though is In the Heights since it was a really good movie that audiences rejected.

Edited September 13, 2021 by filmlover

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Another Broadway adaptation is looking to bite the dust. The only one of these flops that's truly gonna sting though is In the Heights since it was a really good movie that audiences rejected.

[CJohn]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Another Broadway adaptation is looking to bite the dust. The only one of these flops that's truly gonna sting though is In the Heights since it was a really good movie that audiences rejected.

Was it, thought?

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

 

Just now, CJ Sarandos said:

Was it, thought?

A 94% RT score means it had a number of fans. That's more than can be said for Cats or is looking to be the case for DEH.

[lorddemaxus]

51 minutes ago, CJ Sarandos said:

Similar and better options will be available at home with no COVID risk.

No similar or better alternative to a Clint Eastwood movie.