The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[von Kenni]

8 hours ago, von Kenni said:

I've been out of analyzing box offices about 15 years. I feel that I know Dune and its generational impact that spans beyond the novels into Lynch's version, its computer games in the 90s and early 2000s including the 90s Dune II that pioneered real-time strategy games and gave birth to Command & Conquer and began the whole genre. The unit sold amounts weren't huge in today's standards but we're talking about a time when we copied all the games ten-fold. That said, I might be too close to Dune...

 

Long story short, what's your thoughts on these about Dune:

 

1. Dune's demographics are older for sure than MCU but younger than NTTD, so expecting more walk-ins and curious eyes to see it than with NTTD.

2. Timmy, Zendaya, and the misleading trailers lure in more young people but WOM is probably weaker among them than with the older viewers due to pacing and storytelling style being different than in MCU, and what was expected.

3. Overall WOM is better than with NTTD or other comps.

4. Some, although minority, who view it first time on HBO Max go to cinema to see it a second time, but even if they watch it just on HBO Max they add to the positive WOM, and lure more people to cinema.

 

Overall I'm expecting good legs and WOM that might mitigate HBO Max's downward pull somewhat, and expect a preview multiplier on bar with NTTD or better.

 

What am I missing or where am I going astray?

 

Thanks for clarifying the thread topic. I meant to write things regarding the OW but I can see that I took it also to longer term issues.

 

Summing up the data & comps here looks like $4.5-5.5m previews are probable and with all the numerous variables OW could be anything between $30-55m depending on walk-ins, DaD effect, etc. Based on the great data and analysis everyone is sharing here and my earlier assessment I'll predict that it'll hit between $45-50m.

[XXR & Friends]

2 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

Based on the great data and analysis everyone is sharing here and my earlier assessment I'll predict that it'll hit between $45-50m.

Drop that by about $10m and you’ll be a lot closer.

[keysersoze123]

12 minutes ago, el sid said:

Dune counted today at 10am EST for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 211 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 476 (11 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 30 (4 showtimes, new)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 14 (2 showtimes, new)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 110 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 798 (8 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 880 (12 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 2.519.
 

Up 35.5% since Monday.
Comps (always counted on Thursday for Thursday): NTTD (5.2M Thursday previews) had 2.378 sold tickets = x1.05 = 5.5M,
TSS (4.1M) had 1.929 sold tickets = 1.31x = 5.4M,
SC (8.8M) had 3.617 sold tickets = 69.5% = 6.1M.
And Ad Astra (1.5M) had in 1 theater, that in NY, 160 sold tickets (can't find the rest even if I'm pretty sure that I posted it here 2019). I think that number can be ignored because the theater in NY is the weakest of all big theaters for Dune.
So averagely that would be 5.6M in previews and 5.4M in comparison with the other movie with an HBO Max co-start.
 

Dune counted today at 10am EST for tomorrow:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 300 (9 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 421 (13 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 117 (12 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 46 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 107 (9 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 1.513 (17 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 1.016 (11 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 3.520.
 

Up 20.5% since Tuesday. Honestly, I never expected it to have over 3.500 tickets in the end with all the difficulties.
Comps (always counted on Thursday for Friday): NTTD (17.1M true Friday) had 2.715 sold tickets = x1.29 = 22.1M true Friday for Dune,
TSS (8.0M) had 1.560 sold tickets = 2.26x = 18.1M,
SC (20.7M) had 3.740 sold tickets = 94% = 19.5M.
Even if I take the worst comp, TSS, Dune would still get ca. 23.5M on Thursday + Friday and an OW of 45M+ would be likely then. But @Menor and @keysersoze123 have worse numbers (than mine) today and are normally right. So I hope for 40M.

I want to project Friday based on how walkups are today. I am thinking its PS for friday will be around 90% of NTTD by EOD. But its PS multi can be projected from walkups today. So let us wait and watch. Its definitely not bombing but very fan driven from what we have seen so far. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I want to project Friday based on how walkups are today. I am thinking its PS for friday will be around 90% of NTTD by EOD. But its PS multi can be projected from walkups today. So let us wait and watch. Its definitely not bombing but very fan driven from what we have seen so far. 

MTC2 presales are looking to be closer to 70% of NTTD, so using the MTC1 comp alone may overindex. That said MTC2 may be underindexing more than MTC1 over, especially with little IMAX in the chain. 

Edited October 21, 2021 by Menor

[keysersoze123]

Just now, Menor said:

MTC2 presales are looking to be closer to 70% of NTTD, so using the MTC1 comp alone may overindex. 

MTC2 could underperform but its overperforming in Canada/Megaplex and I hope @charlie Jatinder will provide data for Harkins. Overall it could be a wash. MTC1 has twice the share of MTC2 and so overall will make bigger impact. But I dont want to jump ahead until we see walkups today. 

[von Kenni]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

MTC2 could underperform but its overperforming in Canada/Megaplex and I hope @charlie Jatinder will provide data for Harkins. Overall it could be a wash. MTC1 has twice the share of MTC2 and so overall will make bigger impact. But I dont want to jump ahead until we see walkups today. 

Yes, definitely narrows the predictions when we know the walk-ins. I would be surprised if they aren't considerably better than with NTTD. I just checked the google trends interest data and Dune is having 4-times higher numbers than NTTD had on its Thursday preview day. The Dune interest is actually the same already that it was with NTTD at its height on Saturday Oct 9th. Plus the more younger demo appeal, plus I think the size of the fandom is generally underestimated, plus expecting better WOM to help the OW too.

[Steele131]

2 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

Yes, definitely narrows the predictions when we know the walk-ins. I would be surprised if they aren't considerably better than with NTTD. I just checked the google trends interest data and Dune is having 4-times higher numbers than NTTD had on its Thursday preview day. The Dune interest is actually the same already that it was with NTTD at its height on Saturday Oct 9th. Plus the more younger demo appeal, plus I think the size of the fandom is generally underestimated, plus expecting better WOM to help the OW too.

Let’s hope ! 
I think once the HBO Max DaD was announced that the Domestic Box Office was always going to be a wash. Sounds like they’re gearing up for the sequel either way, and anything else is gravy. 

[famicommander]

3 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

Yes, definitely narrows the predictions when we know the walk-ins. I would be surprised if they aren't considerably better than with NTTD. I just checked the google trends interest data and Dune is having 4-times higher numbers than NTTD had on its Thursday preview day. The Dune interest is actually the same already that it was with NTTD at its height on Saturday Oct 9th. Plus the more younger demo appeal, plus I think the size of the fandom is generally underestimated, plus expecting better WOM to help the OW too.

I don't know that Google trends is a fair comparison considering the massive rush of ancillary Dune media that has been going on from 2019-present. We're talking graphic novel adaptations (3 parts) of the original book, ongoing comic series, one-shot comic specials, the HBO Max prequel, a reissue of the classic board game and expansion, an updated and modified new version of the old game, two brand new board games, a brand new tabletop RPG, prequel novels coming out at a clip of one per year, Dune characters in Fortnight, a new short story compilation early next year, the 4K Blu Ray release of the David Lynch abomination, new printings of the ~20 novels in the series, etc.

 

No Time To Die is a pretty specific thing to search whereas with Dune it could be the movie, any of the above ancillary media, or people actually searching for information about literal sand dunes.

[DAJK]

Dune’s last 24h of presales have really slowed down here. But I can 100% chalk it up to limited capacity; all of our early evening shows are sold out, and even the 10PM and lager shows are filling up. 
 

Good news is that now that my province is requiring proof of full vaccinations this weekend, that next week we are back to full capacity. Box office is truly back baby!

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, famicommander said:

I don't know that Google trends is a fair comparison considering the massive rush of ancillary Dune media that has been going on from 2019-present. We're talking graphic novel adaptations (3 parts) of the original book, ongoing comic series, one-shot comic specials, the HBO Max prequel, a reissue of the classic board game and expansion, an updated and modified new version of the old game, two brand new board games, a brand new tabletop RPG, prequel novels coming out at a clip of one per year, Dune characters in Fortnight, a new short story compilation early next year, the 4K Blu Ray release of the David Lynch abomination, new printings of the ~20 novels in the series, etc.

 

No Time To Die is a pretty specific thing to search whereas with Dune it could be the movie, any of the above ancillary media, or people actually searching for information about literal sand dunes.

Yep. Google Trends to predict the OW is only useful when you're really far in advance and have little other data. When we're this close and have specific presale data, it's useless. For example, people would likely search "Bond" rather than "No Time to Die", and while Google's Topics usually capture that sort of thing, it isn't perfect. 

[von Kenni]

3 minutes ago, famicommander said:

I don't know that Google trends is a fair comparison considering the massive rush of ancillary Dune media that has been going on from 2019-present. We're talking graphic novel adaptations (3 parts) of the original book, ongoing comic series, one-shot comic specials, the HBO Max prequel, a reissue of the classic board game and expansion, an updated and modified new version of the old game, two brand new board games, a brand new tabletop RPG, prequel novels coming out at a clip of one per year, Dune characters in Fortnight, a new short story compilation early next year, the 4K Blu Ray release of the David Lynch abomination, new printings of the ~20 novels in the series, etc.

 

No Time To Die is a pretty specific thing to search whereas with Dune it could be the movie, any of the above ancillary media, or people actually searching for information about literal sand dunes.

I hope I'm not again taking this off-topic. Good points and all those add to the top of mine and brand recognition that drive people to see the movie too. Before Angry Birds' SW edition no one new about Star Wars in China. More specifically I checked details on the queries and if I'm not totally lost with the data there, it was pretty much Dune movie related. I also checked James Bond which was aligned with NTTD. However, I don't have a clue what's the real relevance of this but it sure should translate to movie ticket buyers or HBO Max viewers (that was a recurring search there too...) to some extent, though not 4x

[Porthos]

13 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Dune Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 Day and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	109	12686	14793*	2107	14.24%

* NOTE:  A theater switched one of their showings to a smaller auditorium, resulting in 18 fewer seats available region wide.

 

Total Seats Sold Today

365

 

T-1 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
NTTD	74.66		556	2822		1/178	21896/24718	11.42%		4.63m
SC	50.07		929	4208		1/183	20777/24985	16.84%		4.41m
V2	41.10		1372	5127		0/244	28009/33136	15.47%		4.77m

 

T-1 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	66.67		439	2899		0/168	17632/20531	14.12%		4.96m
Dune (adj)	---		324	1933		0/99	11444/13377	14.45%		---

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp have been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: DUNE (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps in this point in F9's track.

 

Regal: 531/5259 [10.10% sold] [+91 tickets]

 

===

 

Sigh.  At least the F9 comp went up?

 

Dune Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT): [12:00pm - 12:20pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	109	12402	14793	2391	16.16%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night

284

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-0 [Mid-Day]	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
NTTD [12-12:35]	76.51		303	3125		1/178	21593/24718	12.64%		4.74m
TSS [12:00-12:45]	143.17		327	1670		0/111	15173/16843	9.92%		5.87m
SC [12:00-12:55]	49.38		634	4842		1/192	20608/25450	19.03%		4.35m
V2 [12:00-12:50]	36.93		1346	6473		3/247	27183/33656	19.23%		4.28m

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-0 [Mid-Day]	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9 [12:00-12:45]	64.54		491	3390		0/170	17331/20721	16.36%		4.80m
Dune (adj)	---		255	2188		0/99	11189/13377	16.36%		---

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp have been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: DUNE (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps in this point in F9's track.

 

Regal: 622/5259 [11.83% sold] [+91 tickets]

 

====

 

"Not great, not terrible."

 

Anywho, zeroing in on just what the hell the local SMG is currently capping at (been watching it off and on the last couple of weeks) and should I become satisfied with a number, I'll adjust all prior movies where it mattered, which should raise the comps of NTTD, V2, and SC a bit.  Not gonna move it a whole hell of a lot, tho.

 

For those who care:

 

PLF: 1386/4901 [28.28% sold] | 57.97% of all tickets sold.

3D:      65/1198 [5.43% sold]   |   2.72% of all tickets sold. (lol) 

Edited October 21, 2021 by Porthos

[Sano]

10 hours ago, von Kenni said:

I've been out of analyzing box offices about 15 years. I feel that I know Dune and its generational impact that spans beyond the novels into Lynch's version, its computer games in the 90s and early 2000s including the 90s Dune II that pioneered real-time strategy games and gave birth to Command & Conquer and began the whole genre. The unit sold amounts weren't huge in today's standards but we're talking about a time when we copied all the games ten-fold. That said, I might be too close to Dune...

 

Long story short, what's your thoughts on these about Dune:

 

1. Dune's demographics are older for sure than MCU but younger than NTTD, so expecting more walk-ins and curious eyes to see it than with NTTD.

2. Timmy, Zendaya, and the misleading trailers lure in more young people but WOM is probably weaker among them than with the older viewers due to pacing and storytelling style being different than in MCU, and what was expected.

3. Overall WOM is better than with NTTD or other comps.

4. Some, although minority, who view it first time on HBO Max go to cinema to see it a second time, but even if they watch it just on HBO Max they add to the positive WOM, and lure more people to cinema.

 

Overall I'm expecting good legs and WOM that might mitigate HBO Max's downward pull somewhat, and expect a preview multiplier on bar with NTTD or better.

 

What am I missing or where am I going astray?

Definitely feel like these things will be important factors as well. Hard to say where it will end up, but somewhere between 35-50 million OW seems about right. If WOM is anything like Europe I think that, combined with the factors your mentioned, it can hit that upper range. We'll see soon enough.

[motionpic05]

I'm new to this! I frequent the box office subreddit and just started looking at this website and I decided to make an account.

 

I'll update my local theatre's results so far for Dune and Eternals today and start to do comps when I have more data!

 

[WrathOfHan]

Dune:

6:00 IMAX: 115/372

7:00 Dolby: 128/236

7:45: 31/107

8:45 3D: 5/67

9:30 IMAX: 97/372

Total: 376/1,154

 

Comps:

 

59% of Black Widow (7.8M)

74% of Shang-Chi (6.5M)

108% of Venom 2 (12.2M)

136% of F9 (9.5M)

148% of No Time to Die (9.3M)

180% of AQP2 (8.6M)

254% of The Suicide Squad (10.4M)

 

Fantastic finish. 2D sales have picked up a bit but still aren't anything great. Given how Shang-Chi over performed at my theater and Dune looks to be doing the same, my guess for the range is 5.5-6.5M with a prediction of 5.8M.

[Dementeleus]

30 minutes ago, motionpic05 said:

I'm new to this! I frequent the box office subreddit and just started looking at this website and I decided to make an account.

 

I'll update my local theatre's results so far for Dune and Eternals today and start to do comps when I have more data!

 

Welcome!  

[Porthos]

34 minutes ago, motionpic05 said:

I'm new to this! I frequent the box office subreddit and just started looking at this website and I decided to make an account.

 

I'll update my local theatre's results so far for Dune and Eternals today and start to do comps when I have more data!

 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

Afternoon update: Dune is at 39270/259745, $537532. Think it's headed for a 60k finish, which would point at right around the 5m range I think? Let's see where MTC1 lands. 

[Cmasterclay]

Going 5/12/14/8 for an opening weekend of 39 for Dune. 

[Ronin46]

BO Pro

 

Dune 40

Ron 6.4

 

HK  16

NTTD 12.6

Venom  9