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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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XXR vs XXR Global Phenomenon

XXR vs XXR

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Menor said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/16/star-wars-the-force-awakens-surpasses-100m-in-advanced-ticket-sales-report.html

 

So opening weekend presales for TFA were only $50-60 million (holiday boost). And with Endgame I think it's reasonable to assume that 90%+ of presales are for OW, which makes this performance significantly more impressive than it already was (which was a lot).

 

Absolutely true. As I recall, Christmas Day was actually the 4th biggest presale day, ahead of OW Sunday. 

I can't remember who dug up the numbers, but I believe IW presales for OW were 93% of the presale total. Assuming a similar (if not exact) number for EG, we could be looking at $120m in presales just for OW 😱

 

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Legion Again Global Phenomenon

Legion Again

Posted
Posted
On 4/16/2019 at 8:17 PM, Thanos Legion said:

17:00 Pacific 4/16/19 (End of Tues)   


1	17.6%	Shazam!
2	17.1%	Avengers: Endgame
3	12.8%	Little
4	8%	Dumbo
5	7.5%	Captain Marvel

 

Shazam edged it out. Also CM was 85% of Dumbo on MT yesterday, but 97.5% BO. Today it’s 94% on MT, very curious what the ratio of actuals will be (maybe >100%?)

 

48 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

MT

 

Endgame - 33.57%

Shazam! - 10.6%

Dumbo - 6.2%

CM - 6.1%

Breakthrough - 5.8%

I was too slow today, but I’ll give a brief commentary on the numbers still just to maintain my streak. Also, this update was for the time 17:00 Pacific 4/17/19 (End of Wednesday).   

 

Little dropped out! Admittedly its Tuesday bump was crazy, and it’s probably just behind Breakthrough, but I’m still surprised. Breakthrough is releasing today, sneaks on at 5th. CM over 98% of Dumbo this time, not that close in BO Tues in the end but fingers crossed again.     

 

Oh, and I guess AEG is over 3x the biggest in-release movie. This overlong, gloomy, character study by the Community and Arrested Development guys might just do alright in the end.

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Ledmonkey96 Box Office Gold

Ledmonkey96

Posted
Posted (edited)

As of 4/11/19 Tickets Sold Total Tickets % sold
Thursday 858 874 98.17%
Friday 1153 1389 83.01%
Saturday 1276 1651 77.29%
Sunday 745 1651 45.12%
Total 4032 5565 72.45%

 

 

Sold 142 today. Kind of strange that Fandango is marking one theater with 0 seats remaining as open.... so we are up to 9/11 showings being sold out for Thursday night, Friday has several that are close as does Saturday.

 

Also we are at 68.7% of total OW ticket sales for IW, not pre-sales mind you.

Edited by Ledmonkey96
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stfletch Straight-to-DVD

stfletch

Posted
Posted (edited)

Updated...

 

AIW Date Days to Open AIW Tickets AEG Date AEG Tickets AEG/AIW Notes
2018-03-16 41 29,410        
2018-03-17 40 16,237        
2018-03-18 39 10,631        
2018-03-19 38 14,574        
2018-03-20 37 9,366        
2018-03-21 36 8,281        
2018-03-22 35 6,101        
2018-03-23 34 3,753        
2018-03-24 33 2,426        
2018-03-25 32 3,655        
2018-03-26 31 5,191        
2018-03-27 30 4,647        
2018-03-28 29 4,241        
2018-03-29 28 3,060        
2018-03-30 27 2,134        
2018-03-31 26 2,471        
2018-04-01 25 3,662        
2018-04-02 24 7,257        
2018-04-03 23 6,866 2019-04-02 330,000   Pulse down entire day
2018-04-04 22 7,917 2019-04-03 40,000   Pulse down until around 7pm CST
2018-04-05 21 5,692 2019-04-04 30,292 5.3  
2018-04-06 20 3,618 2019-04-05 17,428 4.8  
2018-04-07 19 3,383 2019-04-06 11,697 3.5  
2018-04-08 18 6,363 2019-04-07 16,137 2.5  
2018-04-09 17 10,828 2019-04-08 28,219 2.6  
2018-04-10 16 8,670 2019-04-09 24,701 2.8  
2018-04-11 15 13,960 2019-04-10 25,617 1.8  
2018-04-12 14 13,332 2019-04-11 23,680 1.8  
2018-04-13 13 7,614 2019-04-12 15,554 2.0  
2018-04-14 12 5,602 2019-04-13 11,720 2.1  
2018-04-15 11 9,314 2019-04-14 17,436 1.9  
2018-04-16 10 18,403 2019-04-15 26,081 1.4  
2018-04-17 9 19,431 2019-04-16 28,287 1.5  
2018-04-18 8 23,790 2019-04-17 34,783 1.5  
2018-04-19 7 18,788        
2018-04-20 6 14,281        
2018-04-21 5 12,368        
2018-04-22 4 27,180        
2018-04-23 3 48,861        
2018-04-24 2 55,376        
2018-04-25 1 68,137        
2018-04-26 0 76,734        
* Estimate based on using Fandango Comment that AEG outsold AIW 5:1 in first week  
**Estimate based on the fact we had about 1/4th of the days data
Edited by stfletch
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JB33 Blockbuster

JB33

Posted
Posted

Cineplex Scotiabank Theatre Chinook - Calgary, AB

Avengers: Endgame

Thursday April 25, 2019

 

UltraAVX (3D Atmos

7:00PM - 322/363 seats sold (89%)

11:00PM - 248/363 seats sold (68%)

 

UltraAVX 3D

10:00PM - 260/406 seats sold (64%)

 

UltraAVX

6:00PM - 324/406 seats sold (80%)

 

IMAX (3D)

6:30PM - 271/279 seats sold (97%) *Basically a sellout. 4 handicapped seats + 4 handicapped companion seats remaining.

 

IMAX

10:30PM - 267/279 seats sold (96%) *4 regular seats remaining.

 

Regular (3D)

6:15PM - 55/366 seats sold (15%)

8:00PM - 234/330 seats sold (71%)

8:30PM - 2/163 seats sold (1%)

10:15PM - 9/366 seats sold (2%)

 

Regular

6:45PM - 106/234 seats sold (45%)

7:30PM - 27/162 seats sold (17%)

9:00PM - 180/234 seats sold (77%)

10:45PM - 43/234 seats sold (18%)

 

 

I wish I had comps for you guys but this is my first time tracking my go-to theatre. I'm going to try to start doing this for all big-ish releases from now on, though, so I have comps to refer to.

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JB33 Blockbuster

JB33

Posted
Posted

Oh, and to put things in perspective: @RthZam would have to confirm this but I'm pretty sure "my theatre" is the biggest in Calgary. I might also start tracking my other go-to theatre, which is smaller so all the shows naturally look "more sold out".

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

As of 4/11/19 Tickets Sold Total Tickets % sold
Thursday 858 874 98.17%
Friday 1153 1389 83.01%
Saturday 1276 1651 77.29%
Sunday 745 1651 45.12%
Total 4032 5565 72.45%

 


Sold 142 today. Kind of strange that Fandango is marking one theater with 0 seats remaining as open

Wheelchair/wheelchair assistant?  

 

If not, sometimes Fandango doesn't update very quickly on sellout to grey out.  That is, sometimes when you click on a legit sold out showing, it'll still pull up a completely sold out seat map (including wheelchair slots).  And sometimes it'll bring up the "number of tickets" page, but say "this showing is sold out, please choose another showing" (or something like that) without any possible way to buy a seat (but a drop down menu to change to another time).

 

Mostly I reckon various flags/variables in the background that haven't been fully set and/or propagated throughout the Fandango ecosystem.  It should be greyed out on Fandango soon enough.

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Ledmonkey96 Box Office Gold

Ledmonkey96

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Wheelchair/wheelchair assistant?  

 

If not, sometimes Fandango doesn't update very quickly on sellout to grey out.  That is, sometimes when you click on a legit sold out showing, it'll still pull up a completely sold out seat map (including wheelchair slots).  And sometimes it'll bring up the "number of tickets" page, but say "this showing is sold out, please choose another showing" (or something like that) without any possible way to buy a seat (but a drop down menu to change to another time).

 

Mostly I reckon various flags/variables in the background that haven't been fully set and/or propagated throughout the Fandango ecosystem.  It should be greyed out on Fandango soon enough.

The wheel chair spots are pre-emptively greyed out and not sellable online because idiots keep buying them.

Edited by Ledmonkey96
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charlie Jatinder Global Phenomenon

charlie Jatinder

Posted
Posted 
Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-04-17 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	45.106%	31241	Avengers Endgame (2019)
2	07.594%	5260	Shazam!
3	05.240%	3629	Breakthrough (2019)
4	05.022%	3478	Avengers Endgame  (2019)
5	04.972%	3444	Captain Marvel (2019)
6	04.031%	2792	Little (2019)
7	03.957%	2741	The Curse of La Llorona
8	02.642%	1830	Dumbo (2019)
9	02.527%	1750	Pet Sematary (2019)
10	02.391%	1656	Us (2019)
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)

Avengers: Endgame Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 Days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

17

243

5347

24576

78.24%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                  200

 

Infinity War Comps:

1.9172x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 8 days before release [Infinity War has 41 days of pre−sales compared to Endgame's 23 days]
1.2212x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at stop of tracking on release night.
1.0864x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at stop of tracking on release night at the exact same theaters in town.

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio. It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in more theaters locally.

 

IW (T-8)              207 tickets sold that day   [4 sellouts/135 showings   | 4628/13013 seats left  | 64.44% sold]      

EG (adj*):              154 tickets sold today       [17 sellouts/243 showings | 4057/20133 seats left  | 79.85% sold]

EG (exact**):           143 tickets sold today       [17 sellouts/217 showings | 3619/17920 seats left  | 79.80% sold]

---

IW (final):   13164 tickets sold at stop [59 sellouts/182 showings | 1195/15159 seats left  | 86.64% sold]

EG (adj*):   16076 tickets sold so far   [17 sellouts/243 showings | 4057/20133 seats left  | 79.85% sold]

EG (exact**):  14301 tickets sold so far   [17 sellouts/217 showings | 3619/17920 seats left  | 79.80% sold]

----

* EG (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

** EG (exact) is the number of tickets sold at the EXACT same theaters in town for a pure like-for-like comparison.

 

OTHER COMPS:

Spoiler

Captain Marvel:

Spoiler

 

4.2788x as many tickets sold as Captain Marvel 8 days before release. [CM had 58 days of pre−sales versus EG's 23 days]
1.8221x as many tickets sold as Captain Marvel at stop of tracking.

 

CM (T-8):          113 tickets sold that day [0 sellouts/107 showings  | 8399/12893 seats left  | 34.86% sold]

CM (final):     10553 tickets sold at stop   [8 sellouts/216 showings  | 9439/19992 seats left  | 52.79% sold]

EG:                19229 tickets sold so far    [17 sellouts/243 showings | 5347/24576 seats left | 78.24% sold]

NOTE: I have the same sources of tracking info for Endgame as I did Captain Marvel, so the unadjusted comp is being used here, even though Endgame is playing in a couple more theaters locally. Check the main stat box for the number of tickets sold today if you want to compare it to the number of tickets Captain Marvel sold on its second day.

 

Selected Other Comps (T-9 and Final):

Spoiler

4.6543x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 8 days before release. [BP had 30 days of pre−sales versus EG's 23 days]
5.0003x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 8 days before release. [DP2 had 29 days of pre−sales versus EG's 23 days]
4.4226x as many tickets sold as Solo 8 days before release. [Solo had 30 days of pre−sales versus EG's 23 days]
8.6014x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 8 days before release. [JW2 had 22 days of pre−sales versus EG's 23 days]

 

BP (T-8)             175 tickets sold that day [3 sellouts/73 showings     |  4147/7601 seats left    | 45.44% sold]

DP2 (T-8)          152 tickets sold that day [0 sellouts/121 showings   | 10252/13467 seats left | 23.87% sold] 

Solo (T-8)          101 tickets sold that day [1 sellout/92 showings      |  6511/10146 seats left  | 35.83% sold]

JW2 (T-8)             94 tickets sold that day [0 sellouts/111 showings   |  9394/11263 seats left | 16.59% sold]

EG(adj*) (T-8)      154 tickets sold today     [17 sellouts/243 showings | 4057/20133 seats left  | 79.85% sold]

*EM (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

 

----

 

1.9837x as many tickets sold as Black Panther at stop of tracking.
1.9766x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 at stop of tracking.
2.7770x as many tickets sold as Solo at stop of tracking.
2.5812x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom at stop of tracking.

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio. It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in more theaters locally.

 

BP (final):     8104 tickets sold at stop [26 sellouts/136 showings |  3377/11481 seats left  | 70.59% sold]

DP2 (final):   8133 tickets sold at stop [3 sellouts/169 showings   |  8357/16490 seats left  | 49.32% sold]

Solo (final):  5789 tickets sold at stop [5 sellouts/143 showings    |  7732/13521 seats left | 42.81% sold]

JW2 (final):   6228 tickets sold at stop [1 sellout/147 showings     |  7487/13715 seats left | 45.41% sold]

EG (adj*):   16076 tickets sold so far   [17 sellouts/243 showings | 4057/20133 seats left  | 79.85% sold]

*EM (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

 

 

 

WEEKEND INFO: (all IW information is for 8 days before release)

Fri:   1 sellout/364 showings (+0/+7)    [IW: 0/215]

Sat:  0 sellouts/354 showings                 [IW: 0/216]

Sun: 0 sellouts/335 showings (+0/+6)   [IW: 0/209]

 

Sellouts:  17/243 [2D: 17/195 | 3D: 0/44]

 

Breakdown of seat information in spoiler box:

Spoiler

Reserved seating information: 214 screens [IW: 98 reserved seating info at same point in time]

 

100%:    17* [nc]  [IW: 4]

90-95%: 48  [+3] [IW: 11]

80-89%: 58  [-3]  [IW: 20]

70-79%: 34  [+4] [IW: 20]

60-69%: 21  [-1]  [IW: 15]

50-59%: 10  [+2] [IW: 5]

40-49%:   9  [-1] [IW: 4]

30-39%:   6  [-1] [IW: 2]

20-29%:   5  [-2] [IW: 6]

10-19%:   6  [+1] [IW: 3]

0-9%:       1  [-2] [IW: 8]

 

* includes two sellouts from non-reserved seating showings

Edited by Porthos
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charlie Jatinder Global Phenomenon

charlie Jatinder

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Avengers: Endgame Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 Days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

17

243

5347

24576

78.24%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                  200

 

Infinity War Comps:

1.9172x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 8 days before release [Infinity War has 41 days of pre−sales compared to Endgame's 23 days]
1.2212x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at stop of tracking on release night.
1.0864x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at stop of tracking on release night at the exact same theaters in town.

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio. It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in more theaters locally.

 

IW (T-8)              207 tickets sold that day   [4 sellouts/135 showings   | 4628/13013 seats left  | 64.44% sold]      

EG (adj*):              154 tickets sold today       [17 sellouts/243 showings | 4057/20133 seats left  | 79.85% sold]

EG (exact**):           143 tickets sold today       [17 sellouts/217 showings | 3619/17920 seats left  | 79.80% sold]

---

IW (final):   13164 tickets sold at stop [59 sellouts/182 showings | 1195/15159 seats left  | 86.64% sold]

EG (adj*):   16076 tickets sold so far   [17 sellouts/243 showings | 4057/20133 seats left  | 79.85% sold]

EG (exact**):  14301 tickets sold so far   [17 sellouts/217 showings | 3619/17920 seats left  | 79.80% sold]

----

* EG (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

** EG (exact) is the number of tickets sold at the EXACT same theaters in town for a pure like-for-like comparison.

 

OTHER COMPS:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

WEEKEND INFO: (all IW information is for 8 days before release)

Fri:   1 sellout/364 showings (+0/+7)    [IW: 0/215]

Sat:  0 sellouts/354 showings                 [IW: 0/216]

Sun: 0 sellouts/335 showings (+0/+6)   [IW: 0/209]

 

Sellouts:  17/243 [2D: 17/195 | 3D: 0/44]

 

Breakdown of seat information in spoiler box:

  Reveal hidden contents

Can final occupancy be 95%. That's what I am concerned about.

Edited by Charlie Jatinder
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Can final occupancy be 95%. That's what I am concerned about.

I doubt it, personally.  Sacto might not have as high of a 3D ratio as some, but the showings are still out there.  Plus even though they're doing better than normal, the underperforming theaters in the region (no names given) will still underperform relative to the powerhouses.

 

Now will the powerhouses in the region approach 95%?  Sure, that's much more likely. :)

 

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Porthos said:

I doubt it, personally.  Sacto might not have as high of a 3D ratio as some, but the showings are still out there.  Plus even though they're doing better than normal, the underperforming theaters in the region (no names given) will still underperform relative to the powerhouses.

 

Now will the powerhouses in the region approach 95%?  Sure, that's much more likely. :)

 

The other thing to add is, I'll be doing my final track check, oh let's say from 4:30/4:45 to 5:30/5:45 (it's taking me about an hour to compile the data currently).  I simply can not and will not be able to track the ticket sales that happen after 5:30pm my time. 

 

So I fully expect the 10pm+ showings to still have some tickets left. 

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Taruseth Box Office Gold

Taruseth

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Porthos said:

Avengers: Endgame Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 Days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

17

243

5347

24576

78.24%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                  200

 

those daily updates are incredible.

 

But 243 showings and 24576 seats in total means that one auditorium has just 100 seats (okay, 101.14).

That sounds incredibly small...

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charlie Jatinder Global Phenomenon

charlie Jatinder

Posted
Posted (edited)
51 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

those daily updates are incredible.

 

But 243 showings and 24576 seats in total means that one auditorium has just 100 seats (okay, 101.14).

That sounds incredibly small...

I think there may be 3-4 premium (more perhaps) audis with 20-40 seats bringing average down. They may be having 4 shows each.

 

Edit: Now that I did the math, it still is pretty small for rest.

 

I thereby, requests @Porthos to report number of theatres and screen/audi. 

Edited by Charlie Jatinder
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Taruseth said:

those daily updates are incredible.

 

But 243 showings and 24576 seats in total means that one auditorium has just 100 seats (okay, 101.14).

That sounds incredibly small...

Reserved Seating Information:  214/243 theaters

 

Smallest auditorium:  25 seats

Largest auditorium: 376 seats

 

Average auditorium: 115 seats (rounded)

Median auditorium:    94 seats

Mode auditorium:     110 seats

 

---

 

Number of screenings 300+ seats (w/reserved seating info):         6

Number of screenings 200-299 seats (w/reserved seating info):  15

Number of screenings 150-199 seats (w/reserved seating info):  34
Number of screenings 100-149 seats (w/reserved seating info):  47

Number of screenings     75-99 seats (w/reserved seating info):  53 

umber of screenings       50-74 seats (w/reserved seating info):  35

Number of screening  under 50 seats (w/reserved seating info):  24

 

(note: I never keep track of DBOX screenings [which are listed separately on Fandango] - I manually adjusted a couple of screenings above to reflect those seats that I don't track)

((second note: I also do not keep track of wheelchair slots or wheelchair assistant seating - I have NOT adjusted the screenings above to reflect those seats))

 

====

 

That 25 seat auditorium is an incredible outlier (the theater in question has a bit of a history behind it, which I just learned about recently).  Most of them are in the 80 to 120 range.  Not that small, really.  Most of them are luxury recliners of some sort or another after all.   With what could be called a 'mid-range' screen, I suppose.

 

It does get smaller once it drops below the 80s.

 

There's also a bit of a drag on the seat count with one chain which does the dinner and a movie thing.  It only has 30 to 45 seats available. Not sure about the screen size, however. 

 

Put in a chart of sorts, as you can see, so you can get a sense of the seat spread. :)

Edited by Porthos
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

I think there may be 3-4 premium (more perhaps) audis with 20-40 seats bringing average down. They may be having 4 shows each.

 

Edit: Now that I did the math, it still is pretty small for rest.

 

I thereby, requests @Porthos to report number of theatres and screen/audi. 

Check the post I made at the same time as you. ;)

 

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