The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Menor the Destroyer]

18 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

It makes sense Cap Marvel is more the heavy as it had previews vs midnight release for Spidey. That said why would PS be depressed with Monday release. Would people not reserve tickets bcos its not opening on a thursday !!!!

 

FYI Raimi 1 had 7m midnights back in 02 when ticket prices were lot lower and there were no imax/plf/3d. Raimi 2 had similar opening and opened to almost 180m which was more than 50% higher than previous 3 day OW record. if compare that to say IW(Endgame was an anomaly), that is equivalent to FFH opening to 400m over 6 days !!!!!!

Midnights will have similar presale heaviness to previews, but FFH has many, many fewer showtimes as its just pure midnights whereas the ones you refer to were throughout the midnights/early morning, so it's not really comparable. As for presales being depressed due to the 6-day opening, it makes sense as demand being more spread out = more seats available for late buying = less pressure to buy in advance. it's also quite clear from the presale pattern, as the presales for Spidey are unbelievably skewed towards OD, way more than Cap. Marvel, I mean it goes from Tuesday 21k to Wednesday 3k. To me that indicates that people who would see the movie on the next 5 days don't feel the pressure to buy tickets in advance, as I highly doubt FFH would be quite that frontloaded.

Edited June 17, 2019 by Menor

[FlashMaster659]

Toy Story 4 - AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Friday)

 

Dolby Cinema

 

8:30 AM - 8/203

11:15 AM - 59/203

2:00 PM - 35/203

5:00 PM - 69/203

8:00 PM - 148/203

10:45 PM - 28/203

 

RealD 3D

 

10:30 AM - 25/78

1:30 PM - 6/78

4:30 PM - 14/78

7:30 PM - 44/78

10:30 PM - 4/78

 

2D

 

10:00 AM - 75/217

1:00 PM - 17/217

4:00 PM - 46/217

7:00 PM - 119/217

10:00 PM - 15/217

 

Total

 

712/2693 (26.4%)

[keysersoze123]

6 minutes ago, Menor said:

Midnights will have similar presale heaviness to previews, but FFH has many, many fewer showtimes as its just pure midnights whereas the ones you refer to were throughout the midnights/early morning, so it's not really comparable. As for presales being depressed due to the 6-day opening, it makes sense as demand being more spread out = more seats available for late buying = less pressure to buy in advance. it's also quite clear from the presale pattern, as the presales for Spidey are unbelievably skewed towards OD, way more than Cap. Marvel, I mean it goes from Tuesday 21k to Wednesday 3k. To me that indicates that people who would see the movie on the next 5 days don't feel the pressure to buy tickets in advance, as I highly doubt FFH would be quite that frontloaded.

I remember us arguing a december movie cannot have huge PS bcos the demand is spread out through the holidays. But SW7 crushed all expectations and despite that its 2nd biggest PS day was christmas day or something like that. So I am not buying movies not having PS bcos it has 6 day OW.

 

Before people berate me for comparing Spidey to SW don’t forget Raimi trilogy used hang around great with SW movies of that era. That was when Spidey was the biggest SH character. Of course post SM3 and TASM movies, its no where near its peak, but it should hang around Cap Marvel for sure.

 

on midnights having few shows, that will increase if Plexes are seeing demand. its easy to add as many screens as required for midnights as almost all the screens are available if required.

[Sunny Max]

7 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Toy Story 4 - AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Friday)

 

Dolby Cinema

 

8:30 AM - 8/203

11:15 AM - 59/203

2:00 PM - 35/203

5:00 PM - 69/203

8:00 PM - 148/203

10:45 PM - 28/203

 

RealD 3D

 

10:30 AM - 25/78

1:30 PM - 6/78

4:30 PM - 14/78

7:30 PM - 44/78

10:30 PM - 4/78

 

2D

 

10:00 AM - 75/217

1:00 PM - 17/217

4:00 PM - 46/217

7:00 PM - 119/217

10:00 PM - 15/217

 

Total

 

712/2693 (26.4%)

Good ??? 

[FlashMaster659]

1 minute ago, Sunny Max said:

Good ??? 

I'd assume so

[Sunny Max]

Just now, FlashMaster659 said:

I'd assume so

means not good ..    

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

I remember us arguing a december movie cannot have huge PS bcos the demand is spread out through the holidays. But SW7 crushed all expectations and despite that its 2nd biggest PS day was christmas day or something like that. So I am not buying movies not having PS bcos it has 6 day OW.

 

Before people berate me for comparing Spidey to SW don’t forget Raimi trilogy used hang around great with SW movies of that era. That was when Spidey was the biggest SH character. Of course post SM3 and TASM movies, its no where near its peak, but it should hang around Cap Marvel for sure.

 

on midnights having few shows, that will increase if Plexes are seeing demand. its easy to add as many screens as required for midnights as almost all the screens are available if required.

To illustrate my point let me do a day-by-day comp of Spidey and CM 6-day. It will become clear that they are not comparable in the slightest after the first two days.

Preview/Midnight - CM is 9x Spidey, so CM = 20.7 million so Spidey should be 2.3 million for midnights. This is reasonable and fits somewhat close to the range which what Porthos and others have been looking at.

OD - Spidey is 1.25x CM, so Spidey = 50 million after CM 40 million. Maybe a tad optimistic but not impossible.

Day 2 - Spidey is 26% of CM, so CM = 52.87 million therefore Spidey should drop to 13.74 million. Huge drop. Would be a historically frontloaded movie.

Day 3 - Spidey is 44% of CM, so CM = 38 million therefore Spidey should get around 17 million, again way below Day 1. Historic frontloading.

Day 4 - Spidey is 6.2x CM, CM = 10.98 million so Spidey should get about 66 million. He's made a comeback! 3rd highest Friday of all time.

Day 5 - Spidey is 1.76 x CM, CM = 14.64 million so Spidey should get about 26 million. Huge drop on a Saturday. 

Day 6 - Spidey is 8.6 x CM, CM = 8.6 million so Spidey should get about 74 million for the day. Second highest Sunday of all time! 285% increase from Saturday!

[Justin4125]

16 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

FYI Raimi 1 had 7m midnights back in 02 when ticket prices were lot lower and there were no imax/plf/3d. Raimi 2 had similar opening and opened to almost 180m which was more than 50% higher than previous 3 day OW record. if compare that to say IW(Endgame was an anomaly), that is equivalent to FFH opening to 400m over 6 days !!!!!!

 

This has to be the zaniest comparison I've ever seen lol. Obviously even with all the inflation and 3d adjustments you can muster, S2's opening was not the equivalent of a 400m 6 day. You're just referring the magnitude with which Spiderman 2 increased over S1 (although its worth noting it fell short of S1's domestic total)

 

You're saying the degree to which Spiderman 2's 6 day OW beat the previous OW record (S1), would be the equivalent of a film today doing doing 400m in 6 days? Comparing this to FFH obviously does not make much sense since Homecoming was far from the OW record holder. Much more appropriate would be comparing AEG to IW, as the former is a sequel to the latter and both were OW record holders.

 

Anyways here is the only relevant comparison I can see using the same logic. The degree to which AEG's 6 day OW beat the previous 3 day OW, would be the equivalent of Spiderman 2 having done 200m in 6 days! Applying the magnitude of S2's increase in 6 days over S1's 3 day gross to FFH's potential 6 day gross makes no sense whatsoever 

 

 

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, Menor said:

To illustrate my point let me do a day-by-day comp of Spidey and CM 6-day. It will become clear that they are not comparable in the slightest after the first two days.

Preview/Midnight - CM is 9x Spidey, so CM = 20.7 million so Spidey should be 2.3 million for midnights. This is reasonable and fits somewhat close to the range which what Porthos and others have been looking at.

OD - Spidey is 1.25x CM, so Spidey = 50 million after CM 40 million. Maybe a tad optimistic but not impossible.

Day 2 - Spidey is 26% of CM, so CM = 52.87 million therefore Spidey should drop to 13.74 million. Huge drop. Would be a historically frontloaded movie.

Day 3 - Spidey is 44% of CM, so CM = 38 million therefore Spidey should get around 17 million, again way below Day 1. Historic frontloading.

Day 4 - Spidey is 6.2x CM, CM = 10.98 million so Spidey should get about 66 million. He's made a comeback! 3rd highest Friday of all time.

Day 5 - Spidey is 1.76 x CM, CM = 14.64 million so Spidey should get about 26 million. Huge drop on a Saturday. 

Day 6 - Spidey is 8.6 x CM, CM = 8.6 million so Spidey should get about 74 million for the day. Second highest Sunday of all time! 285% increase from Saturday!

I would not do day to day comps as release is not similar. But just do overall comps and see how things go.

I checked 2/20 PS(T-15) for Cap Marvel(similar to Monday for Spidey) and Cap Marvel sold another 3650 tickets for 1st 7 days of its release. Spidey is well off that pace looking at 24 hour chart and hourlies. So the comparison between the 2 will continue to separate.

[keysersoze123]

6 minutes ago, Justin4125 said:

 

This has to be the zaniest comparison I've ever seen lol. Obviously even with all the inflation and 3d adjustments you can muster, S2's opening was not the equivalent of a 400m 6 day. You're just referring the magnitude with which Spiderman 2 increased over S1 (although its worth noting it fell short of S1's domestic total)

 

You're saying the degree to which Spiderman 2's 6 day OW beat the previous OW record (S1), would be the equivalent of a film today doing doing 400m in 6 days? Comparing this to FFH obviously does not make much sense since Homecoming was far from the OW record holder. Much more appropriate would be comparing AEG to IW, as the former is a sequel to the latter and both were OW record holders.

 

Anyways here is the only relevant comparison I can see using the same logic. The degree to which AEG's 6 day OW beat the previous 3 day OW, would be the equivalent of Spiderman 2 having done 200m in 6 days! Applying the magnitude of S2's increase in 6 days over S1's 3 day gross to FFH's potential 6 day gross makes no sense whatsoever 

 

 

i did that comps to look at data when uber blockbuster movie that crushed OW record has a 6 day OW for the sequel. I saw Raimi 2 midnights in a small town(NH) back in 2004, and hype was insane. This was before youtube and social networking era and movies released in film and so had to use interlock to play across multiple screens. This limited potential gross for midnights and OD as they were constrained by number of prints available.

 

I just wanted to emphasize how big Raimi trilogy was and compared to record holders of that era. I am not saying it would open to 400m over 6 days in today’s terms.

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I would not do day to day comps as release is not similar. But just do overall comps and see how things go.

I checked 2/20 PS(T-15) for Cap Marvel(similar to Monday for Spidey) and Cap Marvel sold another 3650 tickets for 1st 7 days of its release. Spidey is well off that pace looking at 24 hour chart and hourlies. So the comparison between the 2 will continue to separate.

Problem is even if we discount the different behavior of the six-day vs the 3-day (which doesn't make sense to me, as overall presale comps are only useful insofar as they reflect day-by-day numbers) the lack of Thursday previews makes a significant difference that's hard to adjust for. You are correct about the pace though, needs a good pickup today.

[Cooper Legion]

43 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Oh shit, you guys wanted numbers?  I was just dropping by to say hi...

Hi  

[keysersoze123]

7 minutes ago, Menor said:

Problem is even if we discount the different behavior of the six-day vs the 3-day (which doesn't make sense to me, as overall presale comps are only useful insofar as they reflect day-by-day numbers) the lack of Thursday previews makes a significant difference that's hard to adjust for. You are correct about the pace though, needs a good pickup today.

That said with Atom and chains themselves selling directly, fandango data is still a tiny part of overall PS. We have Deepwang data for Cap Marvel and extrapolate overall PS from these numbers. Good part of Fandango data is its spread out across the country and so cannot skew unlike say our Musketeer’s data from one city.

 

I hope DeepWang was not yanking our chain and posted just for likes. his data would be way more likely to be correct that all other data.

[Cooper Legion]

6PM previews are a huge driver for presales for normal movies, but not a huge driver of actual gross. Any comparison of Spider-man’s overall sales to CM which includes CM’s previews is going to look bad for Spidey, but not in a particularly meaningful way.

 

Atm it looks like previews:midnights ratio gives a solid indication of true midnights, and pure OD:pure OD gives a reasonable figure for the pure OD. I doubt Fandango numbers for the next 5 are that useful until we’re literally in July. 

[Deep Wang]

TS4 - 3m

CP - 104k

A - 34k

 

ACH - 63k

 

FFH - 2.9m

 

 

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

TS4 - 3m

CP - 104k

A - 34k

 

ACH - 63k

 

FFH - 2.9m

 

 

is that good for ffh and ts4 ?

[cdsacken]

Interesting parallels for Incredibles 2. Many were forecasting 140+ some 150+ for it right before it premiered for OW. 

[john2000]

Just now, cdsacken said:

Interesting parallels for Incredibles 2. Many were forecasting 140+ some 150+ for it right before it premiered for OW. 

animated movies that are big like this, is hard to predict, as the walkups are generally stronger than other blockbusters

[Taruseth]

8 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

TS4 - 3m

CP - 104k

A - 34k

 

ACH - 63k

 

FFH - 2.9m

 

 

Isn't the first rather bad and the latest quite good?

 

I don't know where you posted your overview otherwise I would have quoted that.

Also thanks for posting some numbers.

I only remember B&tB which was at like 10m I think the day before release or something like that.

Edited June 17, 2019 by Taruseth

[Sunny Max]

1 minute ago, john2000 said:

is that good for ffh and ts4 ?

according to this list .. FFH doing better than TS4  ... though TS4 is very near to release ...