The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[DAJK]

This thread >>>>> new BOM

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

Any tracking for this odd IMAX Kanye film?

[Porthos]

28 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

May be @Porthos can provide comparitive data with SW8(not sure he was tracking SW7).

I have very little tracking info on TlJ as I didn't get serious about seat level tracking until Black Panther.  I do have sellout and some percentage data* for the last week of tracking but nothing in depth.

 

I also worry that even that won't be as good with the disparity of showtimes that is already developing.

 

*  What I had was:

Near Sellouts: 95%+ sold

Almost Sold Out: 90-95% sold

Front two rows (or equivalent) of seats left

Heavily Sold: 75%+ sold (if not already in the FTR section).

 

So I'll be able to provide some context but nothing super detailed.

[Eric Duncan]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-57 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	164	7,149	28,790	24.83%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 290

 

Like I said, went down to earth. But down to earth that's still close to 300...yeah, that seems okay? I guess?

[Ryan Reynolds]

BO Pro tracking comes out for TRoS this week, predicting a ridiculous range of 180m-230m

[Brainbug]

2 hours ago, Eric loves Rey said:

Terminator: Dark Fate Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	36	165	8,792	1.88%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 14

 

Comp

0.167x of It: Chapter Two 8 days before release (1.75M)

0.182x of Joker 8 days before release (2.42M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.434x of Hobbs & Shaw 7 days before release (2.52M)

 

Terminator about to be terminated. Truly a dark fate for the franchise.

[keysersoze123]

On 10/22/2019 at 8:47 PM, keysersoze123 said:

SW9 Previews

AMC - 218824/761727 (it translates to about ~$3.3m if we assume 10-15% of tickets are kid tickets. )

 

There are 76 sellouts. if you look at shows with < 10 tickets available then there are another 193 near sellouts.

 

SW9 OD

AMC - 116889/988785 (around $1.7m)

 

I would let Menor report Cinemark for now. Good news is when I search for new shows I added another 200 each for previews and OD. So Plexes are already adding based on demand.

 

FYI this data is only for reserved shows and AMC has many classic theaters without reserved seating and even in theaters with reserved seating some digital screens dont have them. Yesterday I remember seeing even AMC Empire have around dozen shows without reserved seating but they disappeared today. Not sure they were for bulk booking. Only Wang can report true AMC numbers. I hope he provides an update later today.

 

I have no comparisons to SW9 as I have been doing this since Joker and they are not in the same ballpark.

AMC previews - 227597/779608 $3488274 10/23 final (4664 show) +9773
AMC OD - 124951/999212 $1863788 (4878 shows) final 10/23 +8062

AMD D2 - 94531/990277 $1237935 (4828 shows) (I did not run it yesterday night but it increased almost 20K compared to yesterday afternoon)

AMC D3 - 41513/960758 $545061 (4691 shows  almost. +10000 since yesterday afternoon)

 

So between just previews and OD it sold almost 18K tickets in past 24 hours. Those are insane numbers. I am still gathering data for d2/d3 at least and tickets sales are moving for those days as well(Roughly Day 2 is 75% of day 1 and Day 3 is 40% of day 2). Minus release day sales, no other movies or combination of movies come close. Also good news is more shows are being added for previews and OD compared to yesterday. That will continue to happen as more shows are getting full.

 

Cin Prev - 118458/269384 $1537101 (2820 shows) +8363
Cin OD - 67305/522150 $786420 (3961 shows) +9638

 

I did not post Cinemark yesterday as Menor did though our numbers dont sync up completely. But from my perspective Cinemark had a great day as well almost keeping pace with AMC.

 

Beyond this tracking I have seen significant sellouts and/or near sellouts in all major chains(Regal, Alamo Drafthouse etc). So this is not specific to big cities like what I saw for Joker.

Edited October 24, 2019 by keysersoze123

[Menor the Destroyer]

23 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

AMC previews - 227597/779608 $3488274 10/23 final (4664 show) +9773
AMC OD - 124951/999212 $1863788 (4878 shows) final 10/23 +8062

 

So between just previews and OD it sold almost 18K tickets in past 24 hours. Those are insane numbers. I am still gathering data for d2/d3 at least and tickets sales are moving for those days as well(Roughly Day 2 is 75% of day 1 and Day 3 is 40% of day 2). Minus release day sales, no other movies or combination of movies come close. Also good news is more shows are being added for previews and OD compared to yesterday. That will continue to happen as more shows are getting full.

 

Cin Prev - 118458/269384 $1537101 (2820 shows) +8363
Cin OD - 67305/522150 $786420 (3961 shows) +9638

 

I did not post Cinemark yesterday as Menor did though our numbers dont sync up completely. But from my perspective Cinemark had a great day as well almost keeping pace with AMC.

 

Beyond this tracking I have seen significant sellouts and/or near sellouts in all major chains(Regal, Alamo Drafthouse etc). So this is not specific to big cities like what I saw for Joker.

Fwiw I have 139k for Cinemark previews (will post tomorrow morning). I wonder what the discrepancy is.

[keysersoze123]

15 minutes ago, Menor said:

Fwiw I have 139k for Cinemark previews (will post tomorrow morning). I wonder what the discrepancy is.

Dont know. May be I am missing some shows. I am searching across 279 cinemark theaters(ones that have reserved shows). May be I am under reporting the sold seats. I will do some digging this weekend.

 

 

[Porthos]

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-57 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	187	12696	22742	10046	44.17%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

348

 

"Day Three" Adjusted Comps #1 

	%		Sold "Day Three"	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
CM	520.99		160	1853		0/81	8755/10608	17.47%		107.85m
EG	57.99		566	16648		9/219	6257/22905	72.68%		34.79m
TROS (adj)	n/a		340	9654		1/187	11826/21480	44.94%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel and Endgame

"DAY THREE" NOTE: The first day of sales cited here are after 1 day and 6 hours or so for Captain Marvel, around 15 to 16 hours for Endgame, and 5+ hours for TROS.

 

"Day Three" Adjusted Comps #2 

	%		Sold "Day Three"	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
IW	159.15		264	5467		1/106	5033/10500	52.07%		62.07m
Solo	298.70		122	2913		0/87	6435/9348	31.16%		42.12m
TROS (adj)	n/a		299	8701		1/187	8895/17596	50.55%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Infinity War and Solo.

"DAY THREE" NOTE: The first day of sales cited here are after 25 hours or so or Solo, around 14 to 15 hours for Infinity War, and 5+ hours for TROS.

 

===

 

Pretty much exactly what I expected as it was on the high end of my initial gut think of 200-400 (though on the low end of my hopeful 300 to 500).  Nearly all of the growth is coming in the "B" and "C" tier theaters, so I expect the slowdown to continue.  Very probably see a sub-200 day tomorrow, if only because of it being 56 days away.

 

Gonna sleep on it, but I'll probably go ahead and add that instant-sellout tomorrow, as I am virtually certain of the seats sold.  Little iffy on doing it, but I don't believe there is usually that much of a discount on a group sale like that, if any.  And even if there is, the SW Marathon I'm tracking will more than cover it.  If I do end up adding it, I'll note the number of seats I added to the count separately from the seats sold tomorrow. 

 

If it ever does show up as being a glitch, I'll make a separate note about it and remove it from the seats sold.  If anyone wants to comment on whether or not I should add it, I'm all ears.  But like I said, I am 95% confident in the amount of seats sold, and if it's off it's only off by around a dozen seats or so.

Edited October 25, 2019 by Porthos
Transposed one entry in my spreadsheet resulting in an over count of 20 seats - now fixed

[keysersoze123]

FYI I added Day 2 and Day 3 BO for AMC. I did not check yesterday night(did not have my laptop power cord and so focused on previews and day 1 updates). Really Solid day overall. I cant see a negative spin unlike the musketeer.

 

Quote

Pretty much exactly what I expected as it was on the high end of my initial gut think of 200-400 (though on the low end of my hopeful 300 to 500).  Nearly all of the growth is coming in the "B" and "C" tier theaters, so I expect the slowdown to continue.  Very probably see a sub-200 day tomorrow, if only because of it being 56 days away.

 

 

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

FYI I added Day 2 and Day 3 BO for AMC. I did not check yesterday night(did not have my laptop power cord and so focused on previews and day 1 updates). Really Solid day overall. I cant see a negative spin unlike the musketeer.

 

 

 

That ain't me being negative, more even-handed.

 

(also, I can see which theaters are selling and which aren't and I know my local market - so it's more prepping folks for the coming slowdown )

[Menor the Destroyer]

7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dont know. May be I am missing some shows. I am searching across 279 cinemark theaters(ones that have reserved shows). May be I am under reporting the sold seats. I will do some digging this weekend.

 

 

I have 2991 shows vs your 2820. Maybe that explains some of it. Also, does your script account for loveseats and dbox vs regular seats?

Edited October 24, 2019 by Menor

[keysersoze123]

59 minutes ago, Menor said:

I have 2991 shows vs your 2820. Maybe that explains some of it. Also, does your script account for loveseats and dbox vs regular seats?

Thank you. Probably that is it. I am looking for Unavailable Seat/Companion Seat or Wheelchair space. Let me check few shows with love seats and dbox.

 

But show count is interesting. I am checking for all the theaters I thought. Let me recheck the theaterlist again. Still the discrepancy cannot be from just 171 shows.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

TROS 10/24 Update #3

Day	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Avg, Ticket Price	Gross	% of Seats Sold	(+) Previous Tickets	(+) Previous Gross
Thursday	1622	2808	$16.94	$28,931.00	57.76%	(+) 35	(+) $541.50
Friday	1788	5117	$14.62	$27,155.75	34.94%	(+) 85	(+) $1,164.50
Saturday	1596	5117	$14.62	$22,999.50	31.19%	(+) 58	(+) $880
Sunday	555	4895	$14.53	$7,923.00	11.34%	(+) 68	(+) $907.75
Total	5561	17937	$15.65	$87,009.25	31.00%	(+) 246	(+) $3,493.75

 

Slowed down quite a bit. Away for the weekend so I'll probably update weekly as we get closer. Strong post-preview sales, starting to see more spillover into Sunday.

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, Menor said:

I have 2991 shows vs your 2820. Maybe that explains some of it. Also, does your script account for loveseats and dbox vs regular seats?

I am getting data for only 2829 shows. But tickets sold have increased.

 

137090/297879, $1794445

 

Still I will keep digging. There may be few more types of seats I am missing. On show count I got 3358 but not all of them are reserved shows.

 

 

 

 

[FlashMaster659]

Still counting the Inland Empire numbers from last night but the AMC Ontario Mills 30 is running 56.71% of Endgame at the same point in time.

[Menor the Destroyer]

13 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am getting data for only 2829 shows. But tickets sold have increased.

 

137090/297879, $1794445

 

Still I will keep digging. There may be few more types of seats I am missing. On show count I got 3358 but not all of them are reserved shows.

 

 

 

 

I will recheck mine as well. Maybe I made an error in the show count somewhere.

[Boxofficerules]

How are the new releases looking?

[Inceptionzq]

https://deadline.com/2019/10/ford-v-ferrari-charlies-angels-box-office-projection-1202768062/

 

Quote

James Mangold’s Ford v. Ferrari which is winning over crowds and critics in early screenings since its world premiere at the Telluride Film Festival is looking at a solid start in the $23M-$30M range in early tracking when the Disney-Fox pic opens on Nov. 15.

 

On the downside, Sony’s reboot of Charlie’s Angels directed by Elizabeth Banks and starring Kristen Stewart, Naomi Scott and Ella Balinska is off to a very slow start in forecasts, ideal now with young females, but right now at $16M, with the studio seeing lower between $12M-$13M for what is being reported as a $48M net production.