The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[charlie Jatinder]

On 7/2/2021 at 12:11 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Black Widow Harkins T-7 Days

 

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross
Normal	294	69,797	2,296	3.29%	$25,414
Cine 1	17	4,999	1,316	26.33%	$19,204
Cine Capri	9	3,201	407	12.71%	$4,958
IMAX	3	1,335	165	12.36%	$2,475
Total	323	79,332	4,184	5.27%	$52,051

 

 

First off, damn. How do you guys do it. It took me 4 hours to track these, thanks to @Lokis Legion for his assistance. Though to be fair, tracking wouldn't have taken that much time, but filling capacities did.

 

Anyhow, in last 3 days, 142 shows added and sold 916 seats. Simply using usual Harkins ratio give $2.75M Nationwide previews estimate, but that doesn't mean much since the sales seems backloaded in the chain. 

 

However, using this + Megaplex, can estimate the USA non-MTC numbers.

  Reveal hidden contents

	T-17	T-10	T-7
A	1.00	1.35	1.72
R	0.75	1.02	1.25
C	0.49	0.65	0.79
M+H	0.06	0.08	0.09
US-R	0.50	0.68	0.84
CA	0.02	0.03	0.15
	2.82	3.80	4.84

 

Black Widow Harkins T-3 Days

 

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross
Normal	307	72,831	3,435	4.72%	$38,115
Cine 1	17	4,999	1,747	34.95%	$25,461
Cine Capri	7	2,603	496	19.05%	$6,053
IMAX	3	1,335	226	16.93%	$3,390
Total	334	81,768	5,904	7.22%	$73,019

 

Added 13 shows, while 2 are currently non-trackable. Sold 1720 seats in last 4 days, adding $21K gross.

 

Combined with Megaplex, these two have $128K sales at T-3 days. Based on that non-MTC chains in USA are probably at $1.1M for previews. Let's see if @keysersoze123 give MTC 1 data for today. Nationwide sales are expected around $16M including $6.25M for THU.

[Eric Duncan]

14 hours ago, Eric Belov said:

Black Widow Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	90	3359	17786	18.89%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 294

 

Comp

1.556x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-4 Before Release (15.1M)

2.397x of F9 T-4 Before Release (17.02M)

 

This is a pretty muted final Sunday, though it is a touch forgivable as this was a holiday full of distractions. I just hope this really picks up momentum these final few days

Black Widow Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	93	3656	18063	20.24%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 3

Total Seats Added Today: 277

Total Seats Sold Today: 297

 

Comp

1.694x of Godzilla vs. Kong 3 Days Before Release (16.44M)

2.258x of F9 T-3 Before Release (16.03M)

 

Yeah this was not a good Monday, but it seems I'm an outlier as the other bumps from July 4th were far more prominent. It could also be that people are waiting for more showtimes to pop up. While not all of them are filled up, a lot of the good times are already very populated so I think some people could be waiting for that. I dunno, I'm just theorizing here.

[charlie Jatinder]

F9 over indexed heavily in Philly so that $16M is probably like worth $20M right now. Ofcourse, BW can't match the final day ramp up of F9, so that will probably fall at $13M in time.

I would like to see the comp with TROS.

[Eric Duncan]

14 hours ago, Eric Belov said:

Space Jam: A New Legacy Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	40	160	7554	2.12%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 15

 

Comp

1.839x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-12 Before Release (14.17M)

Space Jam: A New Legacy Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	43	208	7824	2.66%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 3

Total Seats Added Today: 270

Total Seats Sold Today: 48

 

Comp

1.944x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-11 Before Release (14.98M)

 

By contrast, this did surprisingly well today. Not sure why though.

[Menor the Destroyer]

13 hours ago, Menor said:

Black Widow MTC2

 

Thursday:

Showtimes: 3188 (+29)

Seats Sold: 70818/470745 (+5604)

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 5193 (+10)

Seats Sold: 56103/796795 (+6726)

 

As I alluded to last night, pretty meh bumps especially for Thursday. Hopefully today sees stronger results. 

Black Widow MTC2

 

Thursday:

Showtimes: 3220 (+32)

Seats Sold: 80059/472972 (+9241)

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 5258 (+62)

Seats Sold: 68709/805462 (+12606)

 

Excellent jump. It's even better than it looks as the quoted data from yesterday is gains from Sat afternoon to Sunday night, while these are just from a straight-up 24-hour period. 

[RRA]

11 minutes ago, Eric Belov said:

Space Jam: A New Legacy Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	43	208	7824	2.66%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 3

Total Seats Added Today: 270

Total Seats Sold Today: 48

 

Comp

1.944x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-11 Before Release (14.98M)

 

By contrast, this did surprisingly well today. Not sure why though.

Maybe Sixers fans want to vicariously live through a movie what winning the big game feels like this year?

[charlie Jatinder]

MTC2 say,

 

THU

 

T-3 : 81 (for remaining 3 hours in West Coast)

TUE : 95 (+14)

WED : 123 (+28)

THU : 210 (+87) (1.7x PSm)

 

That will be $14-17.5M depending on how it goes, more likely toward higher end.

 

FRI

T-3 : 69

TUE : 87 (+18)

WED : 125 (+38)

THU : 175 (+50)

 

OD: 370 (2.1x PSm)

 

26-31M depending on MTC 2 ratio. 

 

Ofc above two are just projections.

[Inceptionzq]

36 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I would like to see the comp with TROS.

The comp won't be useful until the day of. For instance, a comp in Denver is 9.16M. Though we can estimate some kind of pace. If Black Widow starts keeping pace with TLK(which it has been behind), TRoS comp will end at 14.98M. Realistically, I don't think Black Widow will start matching TLK's pace if it hasn't started by now, so TRoS comp will probably end up low to mid 14Ms. Obviously, pre-pandemic comp, so take what you will from that...

[charlie Jatinder]

31 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

The comp won't be useful until the day of. For instance, a comp in Denver is 9.16M. Though we can estimate some kind of pace. If Black Widow starts keeping pace with TLK(which it has been behind), TRoS comp will end at 14.98M. Realistically, I don't think Black Widow will start matching TLK's pace if it hasn't started by now, so TRoS comp will probably end up low to mid 14Ms. Obviously, pre-pandemic comp, so take what you will from that...

yeah yeah. day wise comp wont be of much use, just the final comp instead of F9 one, since TROS was last big film, only in Philly since F9 overindexed there.

Edited July 6, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Porthos]

On 7/4/2021 at 10:37 PM, Porthos said:

 

Black Widow Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	193	22688	27313	4625	16.93%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

305

 

T-4 Adjusted Comp #1

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	228.57		200	1806		0/89	11678/13484	13.39%		16.23m
BW (F9 adj)	---		270	4128		0/161	19043/23171	17.82%		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  BW (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps during F9's track.

 

T-4 Adjusted Comp #2

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II	356.73		115	1271		7/85	2254/3525	36.06%		17.12m
BW (AQP adj)	---		305	4534		0/193	22629/27163	16.69%		---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: BW (adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted, which started to be tracked with F9's track.

 

VERY UNOFFICIAL COMP: 

0.78541x tickets sold as Captain Marvel at T-4 [16.26m] [296 tickets sold at equivalent theaters]

 

Black Widow Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	193	22219	27313	5094	18.65%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

469

 

T-3 Adjusted Comp #1

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	219.34		257	2063		0/122	15198/17261	11.95%		15.57m
BW (F9 adj)	---		397	4525		0/161	18646/23171	19.53%		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  BW (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps during F9's track.

 

T-3 Adjusted Comp #2

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II	330.58		240	1511		11/98	2360/3871	39.03%		15.86m
BW (AQP adj)	---		461	4995		0/193	22168/27163	18.39%		---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: BW (adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted, which started to be tracked with F9's track.

 

VERY UNOFFICIAL COMP: 

0.78283x tickets sold as Captain Marvel at T-3 [16.20m] [417 tickets sold at equivalent theaters]

[charlie Jatinder]

First bad day in Sacramento. Should have been close to 600.

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

First bad day in Sacramento. Should have been close to 600.

 

I was not expecting that, for the record. I was expecting more like 500, so it came close, but not quite there.

 

It's the F9 and AQP II comps which are more... interesting. 

[Porthos]

Also for the record, I was a bit bored had some free time at 4pm and was looking for something to do, so I took another sample at 4pm to see if there was more of a post-5pm bounce today than yesterday.

 

13 hours ago, Porthos said:

Sample taken at 4:15pm - 4:55pm:  185 tickets sold since Sat night.

Sample taken at 9:45pm - 10:25pm: 120 tickets sold since 4pm sample.

 

 

Sample taken at 4:10pm - 4:55pm:     261 tickets sold since Sun Night.

Sample taken at 10:00pm - 10:45pm: 208 tickets sold since 4pm sample.

 

Yesterday 39% of tickets sold were in the 5pm-10pm window while today 44% of tickets sold were in the 5pm-10pm window. 

 

Also sold about 80 more tickets in the daytime portion today than yesterday (41% more).  Don't want to take the time to see if that is normal-ish growth or not from yesterday.  Either way, it didn't explode locally.  But, then again, I didn't expect it to.  Little under expectations on the main comp.  

 

More than a little under pace on the F9/AQP II front, however.  And given both of those two exploding the next couple of days, Black Widow has its work cut out for it these last three days.

[Porthos]

16 minutes ago, Porthos said:

More than a little under pace on the F9/AQP II front, however.  And given both of those two exploding the next couple of days, Black Widow has its work cut out for it these last three days.

 

I want to talk about this a bit more.

 

One of the reasons I wasn't expecting 600 or so tickets in Sacto tonight is that there were little to no indications that it would do that... if one looked at the trendline against F9/AQP II and not CM (which I am only posting info on nearly under protest).

 

See, it was barely doing 2.2x F9 the last few days. And in those days, F9 wasn't in its expansion phase yet.  @Lokis Legion brought up this point a couple of weeks ago that BW need to, in my words not his, bank seats ahead of time before F9 started its own surge in the MTWTh window before release.  Well instead of banking seats to get ahead of that 2.2x pace he was looking for, it more or less matched that 2.2x pace those days.  Sometimes a tiny bit ahead, sometimes somewhat behind.

 

I for one did not 'expect' BW to continue to sell 2.2x F9 tickets the rest of the way starting today.  It could mind.  It absolutely could explode the next couple of days, as the showtimes are there to be bought.   But... Just think it's a tall ask for 2.2x F9 during days where F9 was surging is more or less my stance.  Not an unreachable ask... Just not one I was expecting.

 

Am concerned about it hitting 15.5m just based on a Sacramento comp in other word.  We'll see how much ground it loses to F9 over the last few days.  On the other hand, and this is a bit of a spoiler, I was already planning on bumping up the F9 comp by about 5% or so whenever I reported the final Sacto numbers (more PLF penetration, 3D [however slight], less caps/social distancing from smaller theaters, etc). So don't freak out if the F9 comp gets too low.

 

That being said, I've been sounding notes of caution for a reason as I was looking ahead to these last few days and not exactly loving the pace that BW was setting after the review drop.

 

NB:::::

 

I want to make it clear that I think BW is doing well in pre-sales.  Just not exploding is all.

Edited July 6, 2021 by Porthos

[john2000]

14 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I want to talk about this a bit more.

 

One of the reasons I wasn't expecting 600 or so tickets in Sacto tonight is that there were little to no indications that it would do that... if one looked at the trendline against F9/AQP II and not CM (which I am only posting info on nearly under protest).

 

See, it was barely doing 2.2x F9 the last few days. And in those days, F9 wasn't in its expansion phase yet.  @Lokis Legion brought up this point a couple of weeks ago that BW need to, in my words not his, bank seats ahead of time before F9 started its own surge in the MTWTh window before release.  Well instead of banking seats to get ahead of that 2.2x pace he was looking for, it more or less matched that 2.2x pace those days.  Sometimes a tiny bit ahead, sometimes somewhat behind.

 

I for one did not 'expect' BW to continue to sell 2.2x F9 tickets the rest of the way starting today.  It could mind.  It absolutely could explode the next couple of days, as the showtimes are there to be bought.   But... Just think it's a tall ask for 2.2x F9 during days where F9 was surging is more or less my stance.  Not an unreachable ask... Just not one I was expecting.

 

Am concerned about it hitting 15.5m just based on a Sacramento comp in other word.  We'll see how much ground it loses to F9 over the last few days.  On the other hand, and this is a bit of a spoiler, I was already planning on bumping up the F9 comp by about 5% or so whenever I reported the final Sacto numbers (more PLF penetration, 3D [however slight], less caps/social distancing from smaller theaters, etc). So don't freak out if the F9 comp gets too low.

 

That being said, I've been sounding notes of caution for a reason as I was looking ahead to these last few days and not exactly loving the pace that BW was setting after the review drop.

 

NB:::::

 

I want to make it clear that I think BW is doing well in pre-sales.  Just not exploding is all.

i guess , it depends on what data we are seeing

[Porthos]

19 minutes ago, john2000 said:

i guess , it depends on what data we are seeing

 

Well, yes.   Plus, and this should go without saying, but I'll say it anyway: Sacramento is just ONE market.  

Don't over-interpret any one market, in other words.  Could be that (both) F9 and AQP II over-performed relative to the rest of the US.  Could be that BW is under-performing here.  Or both.  Could also be that there is more market recovery since even F9 than I am accounting for and we are nearer to 2019 than I think (though I should also add that CM over-performed something fierce locally as Sacto was pointing to something like a 22m-23m comp based on local numbers, IIRC).

 

Could be lots of moving parts here.  But that's just one more reason for me to be cautious.  Leaves room to be pleasantly surprised.

 

(also, as I said, BW could absolutely explode in the last three days here, as the seats are there — just have to see if it happens)

Edited July 6, 2021 by Porthos

[Menor the Destroyer]

Local market bumps yesterday were a lot worse than at MTC2, odd. From the MTC2 data was expecting 550-600 in Sacramento and similar in Philly.

[TwoMisfits]

It will be interesting to see how much expansion Black Widow gets in showings today/tomorrow.  My Cinemark 12s have it on 4 and 5 screens right now in presales...I'm not sure how many more showings/screens they will give it, knowing they'll definitely keep at least 3 movies (Boss Baby 2, The Purge, and F9) and probably 2-3 more (thinking AQP2 at least) that they can dump for the July 16 opens...

 

EDIT TO ADD: Checked my 2 Regals (a 10 and 12) - both have presold for 3 screens, so there may be a little more room for late showing expansions in that chain...

 

 

Edited July 6, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[Eric Duncan]

@charlie Jatinder I had to adjust this BW/TROS comp, because I added in three new theaters since the pandemic.

 

Adjusted, BW is 0.202x of TROS. That translates to...8.09M. This shows just how preview-driven SW is, because at this point in time, TROS sold 13,050 tickets. That's lightyears ahead of every other comp I have from 2019 (didn't track Endgame just for clarification). So yeah, maybe don't pay any mind to this comp in the future.

 

The closest to this is Lion King, which (again, adjusted), translates to about 0.426x for Black Widow. That's about...9.8M.

 

So yeah, I don't think I'm doing 2019 comparisons anymore.

[charlie Jatinder]

Black Widow Cineplex T-3 Days

 

Montreal + Quebec City - 1964 (9)

Calgary - 1235 (8)

Edmonton - 1307 (6)

Vancouver + (Victoria, Surrey, etc.) - 3898 (13/15)

New Brunswick State - 431 (5)

Newfoundland State - 270 (2)

Nova Scotia - 538 (11/12)

Prince Edward Island - 100 (2)

Saskatchewan - 387 (6)

 

Total - 10,130 (62/65) ~$126K

 

So I tracked these manually. Literally 75% of open Canada Cineplex theaters (85).

 

 

 

Assuming they cover about 80% of open Cineplexes, i.e. $155K Approx. The No. 2 chain in Canada, Landmark has 31/46 open. That isn't as easy to track as Cineplex, so I won't attempt that. After doing some calculations, Landmark is probably around $50K, so $205K approx Canada previews so far on 110 theaters. 100 other are confirmed Closed. Usually Cineplex + Landmark are 85-90% of Canada. So I am gonna just use that ratio for overall $225K pre-sales.

 

 

Edited July 6, 2021 by charlie Jatinder