The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Yes general trend of MCU becoming more preview heavy, but seems like pandemic may be deflating previews/inflating true Fri’s and IMs, and PS also pointing that way.

Yes, but how much of that was capacity caps mucking with things?  At least before F9.  Don't need shows to actually cap if a person takes a look and decides they'd rather not get a marginal seat and just wait a day or two.

 

Is true that F9 didn't suffer nearly as much from capacity capping (though I still wonder about overall screen space availability from smaller non-MTC chains).  So it could be that there is lingering concerns about overcrowding in an enclosed space.  Maybe, and I am 100 percent spitballing here, there is some threshold where some folks look at a seat map and just nopes out and goes for a less crowded showing later in the weekend (which of course fills out later on, but I digress).

 

I ain't really seeing that in Sacto, for the record.  But it could be a consideration in some spots.

 

[Legion Again]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Yes, but how much of that was capacity caps mucking with things?  At least before F9.  Don't need shows to actually cap if a person takes a look and decides they'd rather not get a marginal seat and just wait a day or two.

 

Is true that F9 didn't suffer nearly as much from capacity capping (though I still wonder about overall screen space availability from smaller non-MTC chains).  So it could be that there is lingering concerns about overcrowding in an enclosed space.  Maybe, and I am 100 percent spitballing here, there is some threshold where some folks look at a seat map and just nopes out and goes for a less crowded showing later in the weekend (which of course fills out later on, but I digress).

 

I ain't really seeing that in Sacto, for the record.  But it could be a consideration in some spots.

 

Uhhh, I agree that this might be what’s going on. But it only reinforces my point, right? Bigger Thursday might get more deflated by informal capacity behavior.

[Menor the Destroyer]

11 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Actually Friday PS is one reason I am still not too sure of 30M.

 

  Hide contents

 

 

I think same-day can go higher than 195k but maybe PA will affect things, we'll see. 

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Lokis Legion said:

Uhhh, I agree that this might be what’s going on. But it only reinforces my point, right? Bigger Thursday might get more deflated by informal capacity behavior.

 

Wasn't so much disagreeing as offering an explanation.  Where it might come into play with BW is capacity caps receding even more (near as I can tell the last of my locals dropped them between F9 and BW [still a little uncertain about SMG's current capping policy]) and folks getting more comfortable in large crowds.  That later one is hella fuzzy though, so it really is hard to try to pin down. 😕 

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, Menor said:

I think same-day can go higher than 195k but maybe PA will affect things, we'll see. 

I haven't accounted anything for PA.

 

Just the general MCU PSm. Lemme remind us 2019, PSm during which were awful. 

 

TLK only 2.25x, TS4 2.7x, SM: FFH 1.87x (Tuesday OD, normal probably 2.1x)

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I haven't accounted anything for PA.

 

Just the general MCU PSm. Lemme remind us 2019, PSm during which were awful. 

 

TLK only 2.25x, TS4 2.7x, SM: FFH 1.87x (Tuesday OD, normal probably 2.1x)

Yeah that's true. Probably a good expectation then but I think the MTC2 ratio will be better than F9 at least (since it's doing relatively better in MTC1) so even that 370k can be 29-30 million. 

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Lokis Legion said:

I am with Menor here, expecting true fri at least 1.9x previews (previews 34.5% or less of OD) and IM 6.25+.   
 

Yes general trend of MCU becoming more preview heavy, but seems like pandemic may be deflating previews/inflating true Fri’s and IMs, and PS also pointing that way.

 

But this is MCU WITH the option for D+ buys...looking at the numbers in J-ville, 1st day (Thurs/Fri) is heavily skewed, even more than F9 was...those who pay to see it day 1 may just borrow friends' accounts for rewatches...and many want to see it day 1 so they can talk about it.  

 

It will set the tone for MCU films this year with Disney keeping day and date for Shang-Chi...but we'll see what that looks like this weekend - it should be exciting one way or the other:)...

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Widow Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

595

1980

30.05%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

623

2428

25.66%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
3119	303	26062	11.97%	15	150

 

F9 comp: 20.97M

AQP2 comp: 19.07M

TLK comp: 16.19M

Black Widow Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

652

2744

23.76%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

711

2956

24.05%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
3500	381	27122	12.90%	15	174

Showings added: 24

Seats added: 1060

Showings removed: 1

Seats removed: 580

 

F9 comp: 19.80M

AQP2 comp: 17.83M

TLK comp: 15.62M

 

Pretty disappointing day, even considering the big jump yesterday had. I was hoping that the gap between TLK and BW's pace would continue to close, but it has just broadened.

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

but we'll see what that looks like this weekend - it should be exciting one way or the other:)...

 

Given how some folks might react in the WE thread if BW doesn't meet some nebulously-defined expectations, you certainly have a gift for understatement at times. 👍

 

Spoiler

Like, I'm not actually sure what the expectations really are for BW on BOT, collectively speaking. Here in the tracking thread I get the sense we have a pretty wide range of potential outcomes, so I don't think the reaction would be too bad (some disappointment/exuberance depending on the extreme, sure).  But I haven't been in the various BW threads enough to get a great handle on expectation outside of the tracking sphere.

 

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Inceptionzq said:

Pretty disappointing day, even considering the big jump yesterday had. I was hoping that the gap between TLK and BW's pace would continue to close, but it has just broadened.

 

...

 

*reflects on post I immediately just made*

 

Yep.  Could be "interesting" in the WE thread alright. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

It's not going all that faster than yesterday in MTC2 so far either. I still think 14 million previews may be more likely than 16 although MTC1 seems to be doing quite well. Although still waiting on the usual Tuesday burst of showtimes added. I think it should happen at some point today and that may boost things. 

Edited July 6, 2021 by Menor

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Widow Megaplex

 

T-3 days Thursday(91 showings): 3779(+339)/25346 in 14 theaters. $52,906 with $14 ATP

 

T-4 days Friday(102 showings): 3289(+411)/36855 in 14 theaters. $44,402 with $13.50 ATP

Black Widow Megaplex

 

T-2 days Thursday(107 showings): 4387(+608)/28553(+3207) in 14 theaters. $61,418 with $14 ATP

 

T-3 days Friday(145 showings): 3919(+630)/44777(+7922) in 14 theaters. $52,907 with $13.50 ATP

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, Menor said:

It's not going all that faster than yesterday in MTC2 so far either. I still think 14 million previews may be more likely than 16 although MTC1 seems to be doing quite well. Although still waiting on the usual Tuesday burst of showtimes added. I think it should happen at some point today and that may boost things. 

 

Just for a data point, of the "MTC2"'s in my local market, none of them have their initial Thursday lineups yet.  In fact, only two of them have any non-BW shows set aside at all.  Some of them have a decent number of showings already for BW, so while they'll go up, it might not be by much.  Others though still have a semi-bare bones number of showings and could see a significant rise in showings.

 

Though, as something of a contra point, there already is a ton of showings when the local market is taken in total.  I always do get a little concerned when Sacto goes positively ape-shit for showings, as I worry it might skew the numbers a bit.  This is, ultimately, what I think happened with Captain Marvel locally, for instance.  Just waaaaaaaay too many showings than the market really needed, which lead to this city over-performing a tad.

[TwoMisfits]

Since final sets got mentioned, one of my Cinemarks has set - they've gone from 5 to 6 screens for BW, so they did add 8 showings (but wait, isn't a screen usually only 4-5 showings - why yes, but they made the decision to have a full set of 10am showings added - 10am, 10:20am, etc, so they have 31 showings now:).  It works out to 8 premium showings and 23 regular ones...

 

The movies kept (ie - the ones likely to get less crushed this weekend) were F9, Boss Baby 2, The Purge, and a AQP2 with full screens and Hitman's Bodyguard and In the Heights sharing 1 and Cruella and private showings sharing 1 (and weirdly, Cruella gets the 2 early shows, but I guess those are least likely to sell out for BW, at least on Friday)...

Edited July 6, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[Menor the Destroyer]

12 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Widow Megaplex

 

T-2 days Thursday(107 showings): 4387(+608)/28553(+3207) in 14 theaters. $61,418 with $14 ATP

 

T-3 days Friday(145 showings): 3919(+630)/44777(+7922) in 14 theaters. $52,907 with $13.50 ATP

Seems to be really overperforming in this chain. Both the absolute numbers and the bumps/pace are way ahead of other areas. 

Edited July 6, 2021 by Menor

[Inceptionzq]

25 minutes ago, Menor said:

Seems to be really overperforming in this chain. Both the absolute numbers and the bumps/pace are way ahead of other areas. 

Utah loves its MCU. 
 

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=%2Fg%2F11h61ybt1y

[Yandereprime101189]

Any idea on when Jungle Cruise's advance tix drop?

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, Yandereprime101189 said:

Any idea on when Jungle Cruise's advance tix drop?

 

Last few Disney ticket drops have been on Fridays.  So probably this Friday, even though that would compete somewhat with the entertainment news coverage of BW (though also the possibility of synergy as well).

 

ETA:

If Disney doesn't want to compete with BW news coverage, then they might shift back to Monday ticket drops.  Don't really see them waiting until next Friday.

 

 

Edited July 6, 2021 by Porthos

[TwoMisfits]

2nd Cinemark set - they also added a single screen (5 showings), and have BW on 5 screens for 25 shows (2 premium, 23 nonpremium - yeah, 3d has fallen so far out of favor)...

 

For the holdovers, this Cinemark held slightly differently (I guess to give the area options) - it kept Boss Baby 2 on TWO screens (here's to counterprogramming) and then kept F9 on 1.5 screens (with private screenings sharing the other 1/2), and AQP2 and The Purge on single screens with Hitman's Bodyguard and Peter Rabbit sharing 1. 

 

So, both added about 25% to their BW show counts - significant, but not hugely significant... 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Cinemark here just added 3 Thursday RealD 3D showtimes (515, 825, 1140 for BW). I have not seen a 3D showtime since Skywalker, maybe. Now the total is 3 XDs and 9 regular showtimes for Thursday