The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[katnisscinnaplex]

They've got Respect showtimes as 4pm and Don't Breathe 2 as 6pm but I haven't seen any earlier than 7pm in the three cities I track.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

JC for #2 this week will be fun.

You expect over 10m for Jungle Cruise? A 65% drop would have Suicide Squad at like 9.2m which I feel should be enough. Jungle Cruise would need a drop better than 45%. 40% would put it around 9.5 so it could be neck and neck if TSS really plunges

[TwoMisfits]

13 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

JC for #2 this week will be fun.

It's gonna be hard...with so many openers and holdovers, JC is getting single-screened into smallest seat theaters (60 seats) at both my Cinemark 12s...hard to get close to double digit numbers in the Covid era when that's the case...

[Krissykins]

9 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

You expect over 10m for Jungle Cruise? A 65% drop would have Suicide Squad at like 9.2m which I feel should be enough. Jungle Cruise would need a drop better than 45%. 40% would put it around 9.5 so it could be neck and neck if TSS really plunges

I’m assuming TSS will perform like Black Widow, Space Jam and F9 and fall 70%. 
 

Will Jungle Cruise be getting the extra double feature money from Free Guy? Wouldn’t expect JC to fall any more than 40%. 

[Porthos]

29 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

They've got Respect showtimes as 4pm and Don't Breathe 2 as 6pm but I haven't seen any earlier than 7pm in the three cities I track.

 

There's a separate Q&A event at 4pm for Respect. Aside from that, the vast majority are in fact starting at 7pm, except for Century Arden which has a 6:15 showing currently.

 

Earliest I see for Don't Breathe 2 is 6:20, with the rest starting at 7pm.  Might just be that theater owners/schedule makers didn't care enough about that film to put in earlier start times.

Edited August 11, 2021 by Porthos
Edited for clarity

[Cooper Legion]

JC will get almost all FG double features — though Free Guy doesn’t look big enough for that to be very important. I assume TSS will fall to around 9M which could make things very close with TSS, JC, DB2, and/or respect.

[Madhuvan]

I am depressed seeing these numbers and I am bracing myself for eventual underperformance of Shang-Chi 

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Madhuvan said:

I am depressed seeing these numbers and I am bracing myself for eventual underperformance of Shang-Chi 

 

.

....... thats the same numbers that the tracking  thread sees mate.... and also what really did you expect even pre covid ?

 

 

[Maggie]

10 minutes ago, john2000 said:

 

.

....... thats the same numbers that the tracking  thread sees mate.... and also what really did you expect even pre covid ?

 

 

Lol people having a breakdown over a Ryan Reynolds movie. Even pre covid i thought this wouldn't do much. The concept is too niche. Anyway, i'm rooting for it now

[AdrianL]

I don't get why people think Free Guy doing less than 20m would signify Shang Chi doing less than Jungle Cruise... lol what

 

I've been lurking this thread for some time, maybe I'll try to track Shang-Chi in my area so I can track some other stuff in the future

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, Maggie said:

Lol people having a breakdown over a Ryan Reynolds movie. Even pre covid i thought this wouldn't do much. The concept is too niche. Anyway, i'm rooting for it now

Video games are niche? 

[Gokira2012]

Aren't movie studios losing money releasing in theaters,i mean HBO had 17 million subs at the end of 2020 and now have 67 million subs, that's 12 billion dollars a year and growing, HBO max could only make $300 million dollar movies and just release on streaming and still make more money than they would in cinema 

[Jamiem]

11 minutes ago, Gokira2012 said:

Aren't movie studios losing money releasing in theaters,i mean HBO had 17 million subs at the end of 2020 and now have 67 million subs, that's 12 billion dollars a year and growing, HBO max could only make $300 million dollar movies and just release on streaming and still make more money than they would in cinema 

HBO added roughly 9m domestic subs and 12m global subs since the quarter that HBO Max launched, which is still good but that good. Also HBO made about $2B last quarter (which would be $8B a year not $12B) as ARPU even in the US is below $15 (it's close to $12) internationally it is much lower.

 

Source from AT&Ts most recent quarterly earnings 

 

Edited August 11, 2021 by Jamiem

[Cap]

I come for an area, even before COVID, that was VERY walk up heavy. I am going to be honest, and this just an Anecdotal feeling, But I would not be pre-buying tickets to the movies right now. There’s too much uncertainty in the air.

 

I have done it twice, and both times I had to cancel, and both times I didn’t get a cash refund, I got credits to use again (it was for In The Heights and Black Widow in IMAX).

 

Since then, we basically bought tickets either the night before or the morning of when we went to go see a show.
 

Just food for thought. 

[poweranimals]

I mean to be fair, Pixels (which was kind of a similar movie) only opened to $24 million and that was obviously pre-pandemic so it really shouldn't be all that surprising.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

The PG-13 film is on track to debut to $15 million and $18 million from 4,100 North American theaters, with some projections showing ticket sales could reach $20 million. A debut below $20 million would be disappointing, since the Disney and 20th Century Studio’s movie cost more than $100 million to produce. Internationally, “Free Guy” is premiering this weekend in most major overseas markets, excluding China, where it doesn’t have a release date yet.

 

Variety has:

Suicide Squad: 10-12m

Respect- 10m
Don’t Breathe- 8-12m

 

 

[Inceptionzq]

On 8/10/2021 at 4:18 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Free Guy Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

43

214

20.09%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

68

421

16.15%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
312	54	8298	3.76%	14	46

 

Showings added: 6

Seats added: 767

 

Jungle Cruise comp: 2.43M

Free Guy Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

67

536

12.50%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

91

580

15.69%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 26 HOURS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
430	118	9513	4.52%	14	51

 

Showings added: 5

Seats added: 1215

 

Jungle Cruise comp: 2.50M

Fast 9 comp: 1.99M

Cruella comp: 1.99M

Adjusted Sonic comp: 1.90M

 

Just threw some comps in there. They are likely slightly inflated since I counted so late. The underperformance of Jungle Cruise here is showing. Unfortunately I may not be able to count on time tomorrow, so just throw me in the under 2M camp for now.

[charlie Jatinder]

How is Megaplex doing @Inceptionzq

[Gokira2012]

3 hours ago, Jamiem said:

HBO added roughly 9m domestic subs and 12m global subs since the quarter that HBO Max launched, which is still good but that good. Also HBO made about $2B last quarter (which would be $8B a year not $12B) as ARPU even in the US is below $15 (it's close to $12) internationally it is much lower.

 

Source from AT&Ts most recent quarterly earnings 

 

streaming is on track to be a 101 billion dollar business, with just 100 million subs, you can replace the revenue from theaters

[Inceptionzq]

14 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

How is Megaplex doing @Inceptionzq

I’ll check Megaplex in a few hours