The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Alli]

That Dunkirk prediction is ~generous

[John Marston]

1 minute ago, Daxtreme said:

Long Range Forecast: Christopher Nolan’s ‘Dunkirk’

http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-dunkirk-girls-trip-valerian/

 

Dunkirk 60M OW 240M total

 

Valerian...

 

...

 

...

 

24M OW, 70M total 

 

----

 

They also upped their Wonder Woman prediction to $111M OW, 300M total

 

 

 

Nolanite alert 

[That One Girl]

17 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

Long Range Forecast: Christopher Nolan’s ‘Dunkirk’

http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-dunkirk-girls-trip-valerian/

 

Dunkirk 60M OW 240M total

 

Valerian...

 

...

 

...

 

24M OW, 70M total 

 

----

 

They also upped their Wonder Woman prediction to $111M OW, 300M total

 

 

dumb site

[YM!]

46 minutes ago, That One Valerian said:

 

dumb site

Yeah. Their total for Valerian is way off. It should be $55M domestic.

Edited May 26, 2017 by YourMother

[MovieMan89]

60m ow would be incredible for Dunkirk. With typical Nolan WOM it could go over 250 with that. 

[franfar]

28 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

 

Dunkirk 60M OW 240M total

 

Way too high

28 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

Valerian...

 

...

 

...

 

24M OW, 70M total 

Bit too high

 

28 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

Wonder Woman prediction to $111M OW, 300M total

Probably

[Jonwo]

19 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

60m ow would be incredible for Dunkirk. With typical Nolan WOM it could go over 250 with that. 

 

Also the fact August is pretty lacklustre should help legs as well. 

[keysersoze123]

BO.com's dunkirk's prediction is exactly same as mine. Definitely think it can make that number. Great for Spidey as well.

[John Marston]

I feel comfortable sayings Dunkirk had no chance of going that high 

[keysersoze123]

5 hours ago, Alli said:

That Dunkirk prediction is ~generous

 

Your thread will spectacularly fail.

[XO21]

A bigger opening/DOM total than Interstellar which at the time many over-predicted at $250-300m...no chance

 

Imo Dunkirk in NA hasn't the awareness of something like Pearl Harbor

 

"Looking beyond domestic box office for a moment, the Dunkirk evacuation is one of the most famous stories of WWII around the globe"

 

Mmm not at all....

Edited May 27, 2017 by XO21

[Brainiac5]

16 hours ago, Daxtreme said:

Long Range Forecast: Christopher Nolan’s ‘Dunkirk’

http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-dunkirk-girls-trip-valerian/

 

Dunkirk 60M OW 240M total

 

Valerian...

 

...

 

...

 

24M OW, 70M total 

 

----

 

They also upped their Wonder Woman prediction to $111M OW, 300M total

 

So It Begins .

 

Edited May 27, 2017 by Brainiac5

[raegr]

So It Begins:redcapes: .
 

I'm seeing 350 honestly...

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[TalismanRing]

NYC Fandango - The w/e before opening.  I don't have comparative numbers for this for w/e BvS or GOTG2

 

I note reserved seating since non reserved can't be checked and won't show a sellout unless it's complete. Otherwise I use Tele's front only row left = sellout

 

Civil War on 5/1/16 (Sunday)

- 277 showings 
- 62 Reserved
- 27 sellouts (5 complete)

 

[Thur Preview Day - 5/5 - 468 showings /87 sellouts]

Suicide Squad on  7/30/16 (Saturday)
-197 showings
-46 Reserved
-3 sellouts (0 complete)

 

[Tues -  8/2 -  268 showings/11 sellouts]

 

Wonder Woman (5/27/17)  (Saturday)
-161 showings
-86 Reserved
-0 sellouts

 

GOTG2 - (May 4th - Thur Preview Day]

342 showings/ 88 reserved/ 31 sellouts

 

 

[grim22]

^ It's surprisingly tracking close to Suicide Squad shockingly enough considering just how much hype SS came in with. Seeing things very similar in LA as well. The last week push will be all important now. If reviews are even decent, it can push it big time.

[The Panda]

I know I was one of those that way overestimated Interstellar, but that was two years ago.  I think BO.com's Dunkirk prediction is spot on.

 

Also, my 135m OW for WW is looking good.  I'm adjusting what I think about its legs though.  I was thinking 315m for the Summer Game, but I'm thinking 340m - 360m DOM now.

Edited May 27, 2017 by The Panda of the Caribbean

[John Marston]

Just now, The Panda of the Caribbean said:

I know I was one of those that way overestimated Interstellar, but that was two years ago.  I think BO.com's Dunkirk prediction is spot on.

 

 

but why?

 

 

other than Nolan name. why would it  be one of the highest grossing war movies ever? 

[The Panda]

4 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

but why?

 

 

other than Nolan name. why would it  be one of the highest grossing war movies ever? 

 

It has a lot of online buzz, high trailer views, it has a quality trailer and marketing campaign (and a much more straightforward concept than Interstellar).

 

The market is dead after it's released, and I'm seeing an underperformance for Apes, which is its primary adult competition.  It stands out from other major tentpoles, and it appears accessible and not strange for adult audiences.

 

It should have strong August legs given a barren field of releases.

 

I think people are, in general, underestimating how much appeal a movie like Dunkirk is going to have (and this is coming from somebody who's not a Nolanite at all).

 

I can easily see it making the top 5 for the Summer DOM.

Edited May 27, 2017 by The Panda of the Caribbean

[John Marston]

3 minutes ago, The Panda of the Caribbean said:

 

It has a lot of online buzz, high trailer views, it has a quality trailer and marketing campaign (and a much more straightforward concept than Interstellar).

 

The market is dead after it's released, and I'm seeing an underperformance for Apes, which is its primary adult competition.  It stands out from other major tentpoles, and it appears accessible and not strange for adult audiences.

 

It should have strong August legs given a barren field of releases.

 

I think people are, in general, underestimating how much appeal a movie like Dunkirk is going to have (and this is coming from somebody who's not a Nolanite at all).

 

I can easily see it making the top 5 for the Summer DOM.

 

 

yes, because most Nolanites are online, lol 

 

 

 

Interstellar also had crazy online buzz which made some people think 300m was possible

Edited May 27, 2017 by John Marston

[TalismanRing]

22 minutes ago, grim22 said:

^ It's surprisingly tracking close to Suicide Squad shockingly enough considering just how much hype SS came in with. Seeing things very similar in LA as well. The last week push will be all important now. If reviews are even decent, it can push it big time.

 

Right now it's showings are 81.7% of SS.   That also fits in with doing 78% of SS pre-sales we last heard.

 

If it's o/w corresponds that would be around a $103-107m o/w - around where BO.com is now projecting.

 

As you say we'll see more around Tues/Wed when it starts adding more showtimes.