The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Alli]

Dunkirk-35M OW  and good legs through august

[Wonder89]

2 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

NYC Fandango - The w/e before opening.  I don't have comparative numbers for this for w/e BvS or GOTG2

 

I note reserved seating since non reserved can't be checked and won't show a sellout unless it's complete. Otherwise I use Tele's front only row left = sellout

 

Civil War on 5/1/16 (Sunday)

- 277 showings 
- 62 Reserved
- 27 sellouts (5 complete)

 

[Thur Preview Day - 5/5 - 468 showings /87 sellouts]

Suicide Squad on  7/30/16 (Saturday)
-197 showings
-46 Reserved
-3 sellouts (0 complete)

 

[Tues -  8/2 -  268 showings/11 sellouts]

 

Wonder Woman (5/27/17)  (Saturday)
-161 showings
-86 Reserved
-0 sellouts

 

GOTG2 - (May 4th - Thur Preview Day]

342 showings/ 88 reserved/ 31 sellouts

 

 

What is reserved?

[TalismanRing]

59 minutes ago, Wonder89 said:

What is reserved?

 

Reserved is when you can see the seating chart in order to choose your specific seat ahead of time.  If a theater doesn't have this I can't see how many seats have sold or how close any showing is to a sell out.

[excel1]

Previews are much stronger in August than early June. A Wonder Woman preview over $20m would mean weekend is heading to $150m+.

[YM!]

Just now, excel1 said:

Previews are much stronger in August than early June. A Wonder Woman preview over $20m would mean weekend is heading to $150m+.

Many factors to consider too. GV2 got $17M in previews and did $146.5M OW in May, SS did $20M and did $133M OW, BVS did $27M in previews and did $166M OW and CW did $25M in previews and did $179M OW. Given the frontloaded nature of CBMs, I'd say $22M-$23M in previews for $150M for WW to happen. However considering the evidence of WW ~80% of SS at the same point. And judging by @grim22 preview Thursday count, it should head from $11M-$17M in previews.

[excel1]

Jurasic World $18m lead to $208

[YM!]

15 minutes ago, excel1 said:

Jurasic World $18m lead to $208

But JW had no competition, Fathers Day, nostalgia, and didn't have the frontloadedness of a CBM.  Assuming Wonder Woman has the typical 6.4x multiple that most DCEU movies have it'd need about $31M in previews for a $200M+ OW.

Edited May 28, 2017 by YourMother

[Jonwo]

13 minutes ago, excel1 said:

Jurasic World $18m lead to $208

 

Jurassic World is an exception, WW is likely slightly more frontloaded.

[excel1]

1 hour ago, YourMother said:

But JW had no competition, Fathers Day, nostalgia, and didn't have the frontloadedness of a CBM.  Assuming Wonder Woman has the typical 6.4x multiple that most DCEU movies have it'd need about $31M in previews for a $200M+ OW.

 

There is zero reason to think the previews to opening weekend ratio will be comparable to other dceu films.

 

$31m in previews would signal a collosal number incoming.

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, Jonwo said:

 

Jurassic World is an exception, WW is likely slightly more frontloaded.

 

 

 

Nice understatement.

[YM!]

4 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

There is zero reason to think the previews to opening weekend ratio will be comparable to other dceu films.

 

$31m in previews would signal a collosal number incoming.

Still unlike past $200M+ openers, WW has no nostalgia or a strong enough hook (A1 was the first time we got a team of superheroes in live action format and that is the only CBM that's done $200M+ OW). Beast which had way more hype and family appeal did $174M OW and unlike Beast it's tracking the most at males. Not to mention, WW doesn't have a holiday to benefit from like World nor does it have no competition (Underpants which targets families will take enough a chuck to stop $150M+ OW, no $150M+ opener has dealt with something that doing $30M-$50M OW). 

[Nova]

41 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

There is zero reason to think the previews to opening weekend ratio will be comparable to other dceu films.

 

$31m in previews would signal a collosal number incoming.

There are plenty of reasons to think that its previews to opening weekend will be comparable to other DCEU films. For one it's a DC film. Two it's aimed at females and female films tend to be more frontloaded. Three it's also a comic book film and those tend to be more frontloaded. 

 

Having said all of that....there are some who believe that its presales will kick in, in the coming week and that it'll get really good WOM which would help its OW multiplier and legs down the stretch. 

 

But like I don't understand this notion of acting like WW isn't going to be  frontloaded...and this is someone who thinks it will be backloaded...but it's not because I have actual evidence/reasons of it. Just that it's a hunch I have. But like I don't expect $12M in previews to become a $140M OW anymore than I expect a $17M OW to become a $200M+ OW for WW. And $31M in previews? There's zero evidence to show it's doing that. Absolutely none. 

Edited May 28, 2017 by Nova

[SoSaysI]

10 minutes ago, Nova said:

There are plenty of reasons to think that its previews to opening weekend will be comparable to other DCEU films. For one it's a DC film. Two it's aimed at females and female films tend to be more frontloaded. Three it's also a comic book film and those tend to be more frontloaded. 

 

Having said all of that....there are some who believe that its presales will kick in, in the coming week and that it'll get really good WOM which would help its OW multiplier and legs down the stretch. 

 

But like I don't understand this notion of acting like WW isn't going to be  frontloaded...and this is someone who thinks it will be backloaded...but it's not because I have actual evidence/reasons of it. Just that it's a hunch I have. But like I don't expect $12M in previews to become a $140M OW anymore than I expect a $17M OW to become a $200M+ OW for WW. And $31M in previews? There's zero evidence to show it's doing that. Absolutely none. 

 

I would actually say the evidence shows that there is no way WW is doing anywhere near $31 million in previews.

[Arlborn]

Wonder Woman is doing anywhere from 110m to 150m OW. That's my Deadline style prediction right there.

[franfar]

140m OW

[jj99]

Why do people enjoying over estimating so much? Nothing in the tracking has suggested an over 115M opening.

 

This will only lead to disappointment.

[Krissykins]

Yeh I'm keeping mine in check.

 

Initial industry tracking was $65m. 

 

So given the obvious increase in marketing closer to release I'm going to say $80m. 

 

If anyone is disappointed by $80m when nothing from tracking suggested over $100m, then they're strange. 

[James]

This is dominating social media, especially Twitter. A lot of older people will watch it because of it being the first time an iconic character is on screen, a lot of women will watch it, duh, and apparently a lo of young people as well. I am feeling more and more like this will be the breakout hit of the summer. Wouldn't it be hilarious if this managed to open bigger than BvS?

Edited May 28, 2017 by James

[FantasticBeasts]

37 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Yeh I'm keeping mine in check.

 

Initial industry tracking was $65m. 

 

So given the obvious increase in marketing closer to release I'm going to say $80m. 

 

If anyone is disappointed by $80m when nothing from tracking suggested over $100m, then they're strange. 

Tracking has increased and it is now at $90m.

Consiseeing that tracking is usually conservative, +$100m OW feels more than a safe bet.

[Krissykins]

24 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Tracking has increased and it is now at $90m.

Consiseeing that tracking is usually conservative, +$100m OW feels more than a safe bet.

 

Source?

 

Proboxoffice is not industry tracking.