The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[YM!]

1 minute ago, Jonwo said:

Previews aren't a great indicator for the OW, Beauty and the Beast did $16m previews for example although that was in March. I get the feeling once the reviews hit, we'll see a surge in bookings. 

 

To be fair, although we didn't see it at the time, Beast was much more of a family movie OW.

[TalismanRing]

6 minutes ago, Tele Came Back said:

 

Tentatively I agree with you. It'll be interesting to see if it gets closer to MJ1. 

 

MJI had $17m previews for a huge $55m Friday but a $122m w/e - for a 7.11x  

 

From pre-sales in NY I don't see it anywhere near GOTG2 which had $17m in previews.  

[Plain Old Tele]

1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

 

MJI had $17m previews for a huge $55m Friday but a $122m w/e - for a 7.11x  

 

From pre-sales in NY I don't see it anywhere near GOTG2 which had $17m in previews.  

 

Most movies have a large surge in the final few days of release, especially the final day. That's why it's hard to make a direct comparison, even when you compare with the exact day before release. 

[TalismanRing]

6 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

Previews aren't a great indicator for the OW, Beauty and the Beast did $16m previews for example although that was in March. I get the feeling once the reviews hit, we'll see a surge in bookings. 

 

 

 

They were to  if you compared them to other Disney Fairy Tale movies or even family movies.  Also the pre-sale numbers we were given weren't just for Thur and they were if I recall doing them doing CW/BvS numbers pointing toward a huge w/e.

[Jonwo]

Just now, TalismanRing said:

 

MJI had $17m previews for a huge $55m Friday but a $122m w/e - for a 7.11x  

 

From pre-sales in NY I don't see it anywhere near GOTG2 which had $17m in previews.  

 

GOTG V2 is a sequel and they tend to be more frontloaded, likewise with MJI. 

 

 

[Plain Old Tele]

Just now, TalismanRing said:

 

They were to  if you compared them to other Disney Fairy Tale movies or even family movies.  Also the pre-sale numbers we were given weren't just for Thur and they were if I recall doing them doing CW/BvS numbers pointing toward a huge w/e.

 

The last presale # we had for WW was pointing toward a 100-110m OW. 

[TalismanRing]

Just now, Tele Came Back said:

 

Most movies have a large surge in the final few days of release, especially the final day. That's why it's hard to make a direct comparison, even when you compare with the exact day before release. 

 

They do but there are also signs early on how well they're filling premium seats, especially IMAX locations.  We're now a week out and there's quite a bit comparative data for other films in the blockbuster range.  When some were calling for GOTG2 to do $170-80m a week out I didn't buy it at all.  Ditto SS.

[Barnack]

12 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

Previews aren't a great indicator for the OW, Beauty and the Beast did $16m previews for example although that was in March. I get the feeling once the reviews hit, we'll see a surge in bookings. 

 

 

 

Not sure I follow, those were great previews for a great OW, previews are an excellent indicator of the OW. It is rare that people are wrong by more than 15% of the OW post previews, they tend to be really close.

[TalismanRing]

4 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

 

GOTG V2 is a sequel and they tend to be more frontloaded, likewise with MJI. 

 

 

 

GOTG had a 8.6 internal multiplier - it wasn't front loaded as concerns a blockbuster at all.  It was bigger than it's multi for GOTG about - 8.39  (11.2/94m) though that was August.

 

SS wasn't a sequel and it's internal multi was 6.6 though that was somewhat shrunk by the T Mobile free tickets for the previews. 

 

 

[filmlover]

I think we can all agree that Wonder Woman should've been the big Memorial Day weekend opener this year and not Pirates 5/Baywatch.

[Plain Old Tele]

Just now, TalismanRing said:

 

They were to  if you compared them to other Disney Fairy Tale movies or even family movies.  Also the pre-sale numbers we were given weren't just for Thur and they were if I recall doing them doing CW/BvS numbers pointing toward a huge w/e.

 

The last presale # we had for WW was pointing toward a 100-110m OW. 

[Jonwo]

6 minutes ago, Tele Came Back said:

 

The last presale # we had for WW was pointing toward a 100-110m OW. 

 

$100-110m would be fantastic, I think it'll go a bit higher given the positive reaction so far. I'm not expecting Jurassic World OW 2.0 but I think a lacklustre two weeks with Alien Covenant and likely Pirates and Baywatch will help rather than hinder WW

Edited May 26, 2017 by Jonwo

[Barnack]

On 5/24/2017 at 10:40 AM, keysersoze123 said:

@Barnack,

    You seem to have all the data around Post Theater revenue. Can you capture the known data in some thread. It would be useful to keep track off.

 

I just did (but I don't know how to convert an excel table into presentable text on this message board):

 

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/24070-the-never-ending-debate-around-the-break-even-point-study-using-sony-leaked-accounting-data/#comment-3018507

[trifle]

45 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

I just did (but I don't know how to convert an excel table into presentable text on this message board):

 

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/24070-the-never-ending-debate-around-the-break-even-point-study-using-sony-leaked-accounting-data/#comment-3018507

 

That was a lot to ask of you.

 

Thank you.

Edited May 26, 2017 by trifle

[Biggestgeekever]

I'm at the Boeing IMAX (the best screen in the state) and it's barely a third full for Pirates. 

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

I'm at the Boeing IMAX (the best screen in the state) and it's barely a third full for Pirates. 

It barely sold 40% on the Cinemark XD screen here tonight. How far removed we are from the feverish anticipation leading up to Dead Man's Chest.

[TalismanRing]

16 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It barely sold 40% on the Cinemark XD screen here tonight. How far removed we are from the feverish anticipation leading up to Dead Man's Chest.

 

Before Iron Man was a twinkle in Kevin Feige's eye.

[keysersoze123]

19 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It barely sold 40% on the Cinemark XD screen here tonight. How far removed we are from the feverish anticipation leading up to Dead Man's Chest.

 

Pirates 2 had 10m midnights which was 2nd biggest behind Sith at that time. Hype was ginormous and it crushed the Supes movie which opened previous week(took away all the buzz).

[MattW]

At world's end did $16.24 from Thursday previews and midnights, leading to a $153m 4-day weekend. That ratio would give approx:

 

7m previews, 66m 4-day

8m previews, 75m 4-day

9m prev, 85m 4-day

10m prev, 94m 4-day

[Daxtreme]

Long Range Forecast: Christopher Nolan’s ‘Dunkirk’

http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-dunkirk-girls-trip-valerian/

 

Dunkirk 60M OW 240M total

 

Valerian...

 

...

 

...

 

24M OW, 70M total 

 

----

 

They also upped their Wonder Woman prediction to $111M OW, 300M total