The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[YM!]

4 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

There's a good chance it won't crack the top 5 if the holdovers do well against OW as well as Wonder overperforming

It isn’t but it should do around $10M like tracking suggests. I’m sticking to Arthur Christmas numbers.

[WrathOfHan]

Wonder forecast:

 

Nov 17: 20M (12.5M weekdays, 32.5M Total)

Nov 24: 17M (3M weekdays, 54M Total)

Dec 1: 9.2M (2.3M weekdays, 65.5M Total)
Dec 8: 7.5M (1.8M weekdays, 74.8M Total)

Dec 15: 6M (4.5M weekdays, 85.3M Total)

Dec 22: 3.5M (3.8M weekdays, 93M Total)

Dec 29: 3M (1.4M weekdays, 97.4M Total)

Jan 6: 1M (400k weekdays, 98.8M Total)

 

Final Total: 101M (5.05x)

 

This is very optimistic, but I think it's possible. It's never wise to underestimate an emotionally pleasing, four-quadrant family film. If All the Money in the World can't make the Christmas release date, that would certainly help Wonder keep some theaters (I expect it to be in 1.2-1.5k over Christmas). An opening in the mid-20s would secure 100M IMO.

[YM!]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

Wonder forecast:

 

Nov 17: 20M (12.5M weekdays, 32.5M Total)

Nov 24: 17M (3M weekdays, 54M Total)

Dec 1: 9.2M (2.3M weekdays, 65.5M Total)
Dec 8: 7.5M (1.8M weekdays, 74.8M Total)

Dec 15: 6M (4.5M weekdays, 85.3M Total)

Dec 22: 3.5M (3.8M weekdays, 93M Total)

Dec 29: 3M (1.4M weekdays, 97.4M Total)

Jan 6: 1M (400k weekdays, 98.8M Total)

 

Final Total: 101M (5.05x)

 

This is very optimistic, but I think it's possible. It's never wise to underestimate an emotionally pleasing, four-quadrant family film. If All the Money in the World can't make the Christmas release date, that would certainly help Wonder keep some theaters (I expect it to be in 1.2-1.5k over Christmas). An opening in the mid-20s would secure 100M IMO.

I can see that as well.

[Jonwo]

4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Wonder forecast:

 

Nov 17: 20M (12.5M weekdays, 32.5M Total)

Nov 24: 17M (3M weekdays, 54M Total)

Dec 1: 9.2M (2.3M weekdays, 65.5M Total)
Dec 8: 7.5M (1.8M weekdays, 74.8M Total)

Dec 15: 6M (4.5M weekdays, 85.3M Total)

Dec 22: 3.5M (3.8M weekdays, 93M Total)

Dec 29: 3M (1.4M weekdays, 97.4M Total)

Jan 6: 1M (400k weekdays, 98.8M Total)

 

Final Total: 101M (5.05x)

 

This is very optimistic, but I think it's possible. It's never wise to underestimate an emotionally pleasing, four-quadrant family film. If All the Money in the World can't make the Christmas release date, that would certainly help Wonder keep some theaters (I expect it to be in 1.2-1.5k over Christmas). An opening in the mid-20s would secure 100M IMO.

I think Wonder will do well, maybe not $100m but $75-80m would be decent maybe $90m tops.

 

 

[Eric Duncan]

6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Wonder forecast:

 

Nov 17: 20M (12.5M weekdays, 32.5M Total)

Nov 24: 17M (3M weekdays, 54M Total)

Dec 1: 9.2M (2.3M weekdays, 65.5M Total)
Dec 8: 7.5M (1.8M weekdays, 74.8M Total)

Dec 15: 6M (4.5M weekdays, 85.3M Total)

Dec 22: 3.5M (3.8M weekdays, 93M Total)

Dec 29: 3M (1.4M weekdays, 97.4M Total)

Jan 6: 1M (400k weekdays, 98.8M Total)

 

Final Total: 101M (5.05x)

 

This is very optimistic, but I think it's possible. It's never wise to underestimate an emotionally pleasing, four-quadrant family film. If All the Money in the World can't make the Christmas release date, that would certainly help Wonder keep some theaters (I expect it to be in 1.2-1.5k over Christmas). An opening in the mid-20s would secure 100M IMO.

Seems a touch too optimistic, especially with Coco and Ferdinand waiting in the wings. I'd think $80-85M, which is still impressive either way.

[YM!]

If Wonder does something like $25M OW, I can see $100M happen.

[TalismanRing]

43 minutes ago, YourMother said:

It isn’t but it should do around $10M like tracking suggests. I’m sticking to Arthur Christmas numbers.

It's criminal that the Star should open so high and Arthur Christmas so low.

 

Right now I wouldn't be surprised if it opened around Norm of The North and all the other junk looking animation.

[filmlover]

Wonder is destined to get an A or A+ Cinemascore grade. I won't be surprised if it shows durability until Star Wars comes out and hits everything.

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

It's criminal that the Star should open so high and Arthur Christmas so low.

 

Right now I wouldn't be surprised if it opened around Norm of The North and all the other junk looking animation.

So $10M.

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

It's criminal that the Star should open so high and Arthur Christmas so low.

 

Right now I wouldn't be surprised if it opened around Norm of The North and all the other junk looking animation.

It's still a terrible result for SPA to release three animated films and none of them cracked $100m domestic. 

[YM!]

Just now, Jonwo said:

It's still a terrible result for SPA to release three animated films and none of them cracked $100m domestic. 

They should rebound next year but their future is alright. It’s the worst but many animation studios that did bad his year like WAG and Paramount.

[ZeeSoh]

TLJ dominates social media buzz on JL opening week. This is the last time JL will appear on this chart (as the chart only tracks upcoming movies)

 

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, YourMother said:

They should rebound next year but their future is alright. It’s the worst but many animation studios that did bad his year like WAG and Paramount.

WAG least had one hit to counteract the poor performance of Ninjago, it just seems that they throwing stuff and seeing what sticks. 

[YM!]

Just now, Jonwo said:

WAG least had one hit to counteract the poor performance of Ninjago, it just seems that they throwing stuff and seeing what sticks. 

Lego Batman although a hit was an underperformer. In 2018, both of their films can miss the $100M mark.

[MaxAggressor]

50 minutes ago, Rumpot said:

JL #4 on MT at 7.8%

Is that good, bad or 0k?? Is it doing good enough considering the new openers (DH2 & MOTOE) and the the holdovers (Ragnarok & ABMC) are all looking quite robust after a great weekend.

[Brainbug]

4 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

TLJ dominates social media buzz on JL opening week. This is the last time JL will appear on this chart (as the chart only tracks upcoming movies)

 

 

Black Panther is impressive, especially in comparison with Infinity War.

[ZeeSoh]

5 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Black Panther is impressive, especially in comparison with Infinity War.

Yes it is. But remember BP already had a teaser and a trailer, posters, pictures, toys and what not. IW have had none of that. No posters, no toys, no teasers. Except that leaked cam video teaser from SDCC

 

But yes the numbers for BP are huge compared to other movies like JL

[TalismanRing]

I'd say Infinity War was impressive for releasing nothing official yet except a concept art poster at SDCC

[Olive]

6 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

I'd say Infinity War was impressive for releasing nothing official yet except a concept art poster at SDCC

will you do a sell-out count for JL?

[bruchav]

31 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

TLJ dominates social media buzz on JL opening week. This is the last time JL will appear on this chart (as the chart only tracks upcoming movies)

 

I remember Wonder Woman did not even have 900k total conversations, and Homecoming 2.8 million, and that did not reflect at the box office ...

These data released by Comscore are controversial, when Twitter discloses they are usually quite different, Twitter said that Wonder Woman was the most talked about film in the summer, they are more reliable.
 

Edited November 13, 2017 by bruchav