The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Eric the Fall Guy]

1 hour ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

May 13–15	82	$6,351	+18.9%	9	-8	$706	$199,714,630	25
May 20–22	12	$910,502	+14,236%	191	+182	$4,767	$200,627,301	26

WHAT AN INCREASE, HOLY SHIT  

 

 

 

(Still, at least it's not Spectre.)

Passengers is a pretty underrated one. Shiz had three different theater expansions between February and March.

[TalismanRing]

2 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Passengers is a pretty underrated one. Shiz had three different theater expansions between February and March.

And if I recall correctly a movie download give away with ticket purchase.

[MovieMan89]

5 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=rapunzel.htm

Oh wow, I had no idea that happened, but yeah that had to be some definite studio fuckery there. Even ignoring the expansion tactic itself, there's no way it should have grossed nearly 1m on 191 tc through any natural means. It hadn't grossed that much since back when it was still in 1k+ theaters. 

Edited April 18, 2018 by MovieMan89

[Porthos]

FWIW, that's the weekend POTC4 debuted.  If we don't want to be conspiratorial, there might have been twin bills in a very limited number of locations.

[TalismanRing]

Fandango Tracker: 4.17 daily total (EST)

 

Avengers Infinity War	18,479
A Quiet Place	10,492
Rampage	7,175
Blockers	3,445
RPO	3,252
Super Troopers	3,203
Truth or Dare	3166
I Feel Pretty	1,540
Traffik	156

[The Mad Titan]

Lots of interesting numbers. I still don't know what to make of the preview total. I'm leaning towards it being right around DH2 and TLJ but I'm I'm hoping for $50 million. If this fails to beat TFA's opening weekend I think it will solely lie on those previews because I'm expected it to beat TFA's true Fri-Sun.

 

[Porthos]

IW GREATER SACRAMENTO SELLOUT UPDATE: T-9 Days and counting  

 

Sellouts: 

4/131 (nc/+11)

 

2D:  2/87 (nc/+8)

3D:  2/44 (nc/+3)        

 

<<Reserved Theater Info: 95 showings [+9]>>

 

Almost Sold Out (95%+ sold out)

5 (nc)         

 

Nearly Sold Out (90% to 94% sold out)

6 (nc)

 

Front Two Rows Only (or equivalent)

33 (+2)

 

Heavily Sold (75% to 89% sold out)

5 (+3)

 

Weekend Showings

Fr: 0/215 (nc)    

St: 0/216 (nc)

Su: 0/209 (nc)  

 

—

 

Reserved Seating Breakdown (95/131 showings [+9/+11]):

100%:      4  (nc)

90-99%:  11 (nc)

80-89%:  18 (nc)

70-79%:  20 (+2)

60-69%:  16 (nc)

50-59%:   3  (nc)

40-49%:   6 (-1)

30-39%:   1 (-1)

20-29%:   6 (+3)

10-19%:   2 (-1)

0-9%:      8 (+7)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	4	131	4495	12673	64.53%

 

Total Shows Added Today:    11 (9 reserved seating)

Total Seats Added Today:  1045

Total Seats Sold Today:       200

---

2.4941 times as many seats sold as Black Panther at this point in time (8178 vs 3279)

 

======

 

A few theaters set their tentative Thr schedule, hence the bump up in showtimes.

[Stewart]

5 hours ago, The Mad Titan said:

Lots of interesting numbers. I still don't know what to make of the preview total. I'm leaning towards it being right around DH2 and TLJ but I'm I'm hoping for $50 million. If this fails to beat TFA's opening weekend I think it will solely lie on those previews because I'm expected it to beat TFA's true Fri-Sun.

 

On that topic, does anybody know the highest Fri-Sun OW adjusted? (I.e. Removing previews entirely)

[ZeeSoh]

46 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

On that topic, does anybody know the highest Fri-Sun OW adjusted? (I.e. Removing previews entirely)

Pretty close call between the Avengers and Jurassic World. 

 

You can see the adjusted opening weekends here - http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/?adjust_yr=2018&p=.htm

 

Avengers is about 2.2m higher than JW. They both did about 18.7 and 18.5 in previews so I will give the edge to Avengers and say it had the highest adjusted OW minus previews

[MCKillswitch123]

1 hour ago, ZeeSoh said:

Pretty close call between the Avengers and Jurassic World. 

 

You can see the adjusted opening weekends here - http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/?adjust_yr=2018&p=.htm

 

Avengers is about 2.2m higher than JW. They both did about 18.7 and 18.5 in previews so I will give the edge to Avengers and say it had the highest adjusted OW minus previews

You win a million dollars, cause it is indeed Avengers.

 

All of these are the adjusted real Fri-Sun, without previews/midnights:

 

The Avengers - 212.3M

Jurassic World - 211.1M

Star Wars: The Force Awakens - 200.8M

Spider-Man 3 - 188.2M

The Dark Knight - 178.8M

Black Panther - 176.8M

Star Wars: The Last Jedi - 175M

Avengers: Age Of Ultron - 174.6M

 

Unadjusted, The Force Awakens takes the cake.... but no movie has ever grossed 200 real FSS unadjusted yet. This is how it looks:

 

Star Wars: The Force Awakens - 191M

Jurassic World - 190.3M

The Avengers - 188.7M

Black Panther - 176.8M

Star Wars: The Last Jedi - 175M

Edited April 18, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[WrathOfHan]

Pulse:

 

1. Infinity War

2. A Quiet Place

3. Super Troopers 2

4. Infinity War 3D

5. Rampage

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

8:40 AM ET - MT Update

 

18.1% Avengers: Infinity war

17.9% Quiet Place, A

15.5% Rampage

6.5% Blockers

6% Blumhouse's Truth or Dare

[Lothar]

Now it's time for A IW to take the crown on MT and Pulse. until DP2

[The Panda]

10 minutes ago, Lothar said:

Now it's time for A IW to take the crown on MT and Pulse. until DP2

I reckon Friday and Saturday the weekend movies will boos over it then IW will Be First again.

[The Mad Titan]

1 hour ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

You win a million dollars, cause it is indeed Avengers.

 

All of these are the adjusted real Fri-Sun, without previews/midnights:

 

The Avengers - 212.3M

Jurassic World - 211.1M

Star Wars: The Force Awakens - 200.8M

Spider-Man 3 - 188.2M

The Dark Knight - 178.8M

Black Panther - 176.8M

Star Wars: The Last Jedi - 175M

Avengers: Age Of Ultron - 174.6M

 

Unadjusted, The Force Awakens takes the cake.... but no movie has ever grossed 200 real FSS unadjusted yet. This is how it looks:

 

Star Wars: The Force Awakens - 191M

Jurassic World - 190.3M

The Avengers - 188.7M

Black Panther - 176.8M

Star Wars: The Last Jedi - 175M

 

Something is off about the TFA/JW adjusted numbers. TFA did $700,000 more than JW unadjusted but is now over $10 million behind it and they only came out 6 months apart?

 

That’s not possible unless ticket prices or inflation went up more in 6 months than they did the previous 3 years. 

[el sid]

And I thought I would tell you something new about Super Troopers 2 . I should have looked at the previous pages with the Monday-buzz but I just expected nothing...

Ok, I know that we have more compact sources now but I just like that manual counting.
5 minutes of counting showed that ST 2 more than doubled its sold tickets compared to yesterday ca. at the same time of day. Now I counted 57 and 58/5 minutes.
I Feel Pretty: 32/5 - ca. 3x of yesterday
Traffik: 4/5

Edited April 18, 2018 by el sid

[MCKillswitch123]

1 hour ago, The Mad Titan said:

 

Something is off about the TFA/JW adjusted numbers. TFA did $700,000 more than JW unadjusted but is now over $10 million behind it and they only came out 6 months apart?

 

That’s not possible unless ticket prices or inflation went up more in 6 months than they did the previous 3 years. 

Well, don't be too surprised if my calculations are off. But I was calculating the adjusted numbers WITHOUT Thursday night previews, as I mentioned. And here's the situation: the unadjusted OW's for both The Force Awakens and Jurassic World are, as we all know, 248M and 208.8M. If we take out Thursday night preview numbers - JW did 18.5M, TFA did 57 - it would be the 191 and 190.3M I had already mentioned. For adjusted grosses, Jurassic World's opening was 232.3M, while TFA's was 261.6M. That's obviously accounting for Thursday night previews, though. And instead of just removing the actual Thursday number from the adjusted openings (and like I mentioned, JW's would be 18.5, and TFA's would be 57.... so, JW would already be ahead of TFA by 9M), I tried to figure out what the (adjusted) raw FSS gross of each of these openers was.

 

To do this, I had to remove the Thursday gross from the unadjusted OD number, then figure out the increase or decrease that the unadjusted real Friday had to Saturday, and then simply use that real Fri/Sat increase-decrease in the adjusted numbers (adjusted Sat - or + the percentage change from real Fri to Sat) to discover the adjusted real Friday number. Going by this route, both their Thursday night grosses adjust to a bigger number and their FSS adjusted go down as a result. JW was already comfortably ahead of TFA without unadjusted Thursday preview grosses, and because TFA's Thursday was much, much, MUCH bigger than JW, its adjusted, non-Thursday included FSS takes an even bigger dive this way (a 10M difference between these two).

Edited April 18, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[narniadis]

The Rapunzel issue in 2011 was due to double billings with POTC4 - I should know since I went to one

 

Then the next weekend was still inflated by being a Holiday (memorial weekend) and still being coupled to POTC4. And remember 3D was still a HOT commodity at that point and if I recall correctly (this was still during the BOM days) most of that was goosed by the 3D surcharge, as was all of On Stranger Tides grosses.

[George Parr]

I have to say, I find adjusting single days or weekends to be kind of useless. Adjusting a whole run already gives nothing more than a very rough guideline due to taking average ticket prices of all movies (at best using a 3 month period, at worst using one number of the entire year), but it gets far worse when doing that with single days. There are way too many special circumstances, especially at the start of a movie, to apply this method for single days or weekends.

 

Any adjustment like that completely ignores the shares different screen-formats had, both for a day on its own and when judged over longer periods. It also fails to take into account that any difference in average ticket prices from one year to another one may not properly represent the increase in price among the screen-formats that were most common. E.g. a yearly average ticket price can rise if only normal 2D tickets got more expensive, while 3D, IMAX and all that sort of stuff stayed as expensive as before. In such a case, using the average ticket price to inflate a gross would give completely wrong numbers for movies that relied heavily on more expensive screen-formats.

 

The change of the average ticket price over the years is extremely unlikely to match the proper adjustment for a single movie, regardless of whether it is a big blockbuster that runs in all sorts of expensive formats, or a smaller one that doesn't get that luxury.

[Lordmandeep]

Unless I am mistaken?

 

Based on adjustments?

 

The biggest True Friday, Saturday and Sunday belong to the Avengers?