Jump to content

grim22

The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

Recommended Posts

Recommended

Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
Recommended by Cap
  • Like

7 reactions

Go to this post
Recommended

Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
Recommended by Cap
  • Thanks
  • Like

14 reactions

Go to this post
abra Sleeper Hit

abra

Posted
Posted 
Updated by @akvalley: 2018-05-31 02:59:19 Central (Lock time Fridays 11:00:00)
BUY TIME	TICKETS	MOVIE TITLE
--------------------------------------------------
2018-05-31 02:00:00	48	Solo A Star Wars Story
2018-05-31 02:00:00	43	Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom
2018-05-31 02:00:00	32	Deadpool 2
2018-05-31 02:00:00	15	Avengers Infinity War
2018-05-31 02:00:00	15	Incredibles 2
2018-05-31 02:00:00	10	Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom 3D
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites


Stewart Box Office Gold

Stewart

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, abra said: 

Updated by @akvalley: 2018-05-31 02:59:19 Central (Lock time Fridays 11:00:00)
BUY TIME	TICKETS	MOVIE TITLE
--------------------------------------------------
2018-05-31 02:00:00	48	Solo A Star Wars Story
2018-05-31 02:00:00	43	Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom
2018-05-31 02:00:00	32	Deadpool 2
2018-05-31 02:00:00	15	Avengers Infinity War
2018-05-31 02:00:00	15	Incredibles 2
2018-05-31 02:00:00	10	Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom 3D

Who the hell is buying tickets at 2 am ?? :wintf:

Link to comment
Share on other sites
abra Sleeper Hit

abra

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, feasby007 said:

Who the hell is buying tickets at 2 am ?? :wintf:

as someone sees buying, maybe it is related to the time difference between the east and west coast

Link to comment
Share on other sites


Stewart Box Office Gold

Stewart

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, abra said:

as someone sees buying, maybe it is related to the time difference between the east and west coast

Yeah I guess. Time says that's 2-3 central, which I think is like 4-5 east and 12-1 west or something. Maybe it's Hawaii, I think they're at like 10-11, primetime to buy tickets for future.

 

I forget USA has different time zones

Link to comment
Share on other sites


Krissykins Global Phenomenon

Krissykins

Posted
Posted

On Wednesday, Jurassic World opens here in the U.K.

 

My local, a top 10 grossing cinema here:

 

Solo loses 6 showings (down to 12)

Deadpool 2 loses 4 showtimes (down to 8)

Infinity War is down to 4.

 

Avengers and Deadpool are only keeping 1 evening show each. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
dxmatrixdt Summer Tentpole

dxmatrixdt

Posted
Posted

20 theater report.  accumulation of Wednesday shows.  then accumulation of Friday shows.

                       shows / theaters

Solo: Star Wars - 346 / 20

Deadpool 2 - 296 / 20 

Infinity War - 146 / 20

Book Club - 94 / 20

Life of the Party - 89 / 19

Breaking In - 58 / 16 

Overboard - 88 / 19

A Quiet Place - 55 / 15

I Feel Pretty - 33 / 10

Rampage - 21 / 5

 

Rampage - 18 / 5

I Feel Pretty - 17 / 4

A Quiet Place - 47 / 12

Overboard - 80 / 17

Breaking In - 35 / 9

Life of the Party - 59 / 14

Book Club - 94 / 20

Infinity War - 138 / 20

Deadpool 2 - 214 / 20

Solo: Star Wars - 323 / 20

Action Point - 119 / 20 

Adrift - 107 / 19

Upgrade - 101 / 20

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites






filmlover Cinematic Universe

filmlover

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Pulse:

 

1. Solo

2. Deadpool 2

3. Jurassic World

4. Book Club

5. Infinity War

 

lmao @ Adrift not being on here yet

Adrift has sold only 7 seats for tonight but 36 for tomorrow at my theater. I expect a very low preview-to-Friday ratio.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites




dxmatrixdt Summer Tentpole

dxmatrixdt

Posted
Posted (edited)

theater count predictions

Solo: Star Wars - 4,381

Deadpool 2 - 4,349

Infinity War - 3,518 (-250)

Book Club - 2,800 (-10)

Life of the Party - 2,137 (-800)

Breaking In - 1,185 (-800)

Show Dogs - 2,412 (-800)

Overboard - 896 (-300)

A Quiet Place - 1,024 (-500)

Rampage - 438 (-250)

I Feel Pretty - 251 (-300)

 

(-4,010)

 

+2,900 Adrift

+2,400 Action Point

+1,500 Upgrade

 

Hereditary, Hotel Artemis, Oceans Eight the following week.

- predicting theater counts for future weeks is like having a huge hole of -35,000 theater counts, and then finding boulders to fill it with that all match together.  Maybe the top ten represents 27-30k of this, or twenty films represent 35,000-40,000.  The Greatest Showman was still around 2,500 theaters around 6-8 weeks I assume.  This can affect films holding after 3 weeks where they get dropped and the other movies stay, but it works well as a placement like with the following week when Hotel Artemis and Hereditary have yet to be forecasted and this particular film can take up around 7.5%, or 5-10% of the screens in the top twenty films

Edited by Thematrixfilm
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites


Brainbug Global Phenomenon

Brainbug

Posted
Posted

http://deadline.com/2018/05/jurassic-world-fallen-kingdom-box-office-opening-projection-chris-pratt-1202400803/

 

‘Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom’ Eyes $130M-$150M Stateside Start – Early Projection

 

Forecasts are percolating for Universal’s June 22 release Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, and in regards to those figures this far out, know that they can fluctuate wildly for an event film of this size. A safe bet for the dinosaur sequel is an opening range of $130M-$150M range per Deadline sources.

 

Total awareness, unaided, and definite interest are either slightly above or in sync with the first 2015 reboot, with first choice, a few points behind, but not greatly. The first Jurassic World had pre-week projections of $110M-$140M and shocked the industry when it soared to a then all-time record opening record (before Disney’s Force Awakens and Last Jedi) of $208.8M. The notion was that the sampling of $100M openings is small statistically, and therefore more of a challenge to make forecasts from — which is still true. In addition, what clouds some analysts’ projections is when a number of event titles arrive on tracking as they’re all measured against each other, and that can throw off projections (whether they come from the studio or a rival). While Avengers: Infinity War was the huge opener everyone was expecting, Deadpool 2 filed under its low-end $130M opening projection with $125.5M (which is still great), while Solo: A Star Wars Story was well below its $130M bottom end 4-day with $110.3M.  Fallen Kingdom is a sequel, we’ll remind you, so no one is expecting that shock-and-awe legacy opening that the 2015 film yielded; everyone is just expecting another healthy $100M-plus opening this summer.

 

Fallen Kingdom gets a head start abroad before we get to savor it, the overseas schedule is as follows:

Wednesday, June 6  — Belgium, France, Germany, Indonesia, Korea, Philippines, Switzerland (F)

Thursday, June 7   — Croatia, Cyprus, Denmark, Greece, Hong Kong, Hungary, Israel, Italy, Lebanon, Malaysia, Netherlands, Middle East, Portugal, Russia, Serbia & Montenegro, Singapore, Slovenia, Spain, Switzerland (G), Thailand, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates.

Friday, June 8    — Austria, Bulgaria, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, India, Latvia, Lithuania, Mongolia, Norway, Pakistan, Poland, Romania, South Africa, Sweden, Taiwan, Turkey, United Kingdom, Vietnam

Friday, June 15   — China, Egypt

Friday, June 22   — Argentina, Australia, Bolivia, Brazil, Central America, Chile, Colombia, Czech Republic, New Zealand, Paraguay, Peru, Slovakia, Trinidad, Uruguay, Ecuador, Mexico, Venezuela

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites


TalismanRing Global Phenomenon

TalismanRing

Posted
Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

http://deadline.com/2018/05/jurassic-world-fallen-kingdom-box-office-opening-projection-chris-pratt-1202400803/

 

‘Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom’ Eyes $130M-$150M Stateside Start – Early Projection

 

Forecasts are percolating for Universal’s June 22 release Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, and in regards to those figures this far out, know that they can fluctuate wildly for an event film of this size. A safe bet for the dinosaur sequel is an opening range of $130M-$150M range per Deadline sources.

 

Total awareness, unaided, and definite interest are either slightly above or in sync with the first 2015 reboot, with first choice, a few points behind, but not greatly. The first Jurassic World had pre-week projections of $110M-$140M and shocked the industry when it soared to a then all-time record opening record (before Disney’s Force Awakens and Last Jedi) of $208.8M. The notion was that the sampling of $100M openings is small statistically, and therefore more of a challenge to make forecasts from — which is still true. In addition, what clouds some analysts’ projections is when a number of event titles arrive on tracking as they’re all measured against each other, and that can throw off projections (whether they come from the studio or a rival). While Avengers: Infinity War was the huge opener everyone was expecting, Deadpool 2 filed under its low-end $130M opening projection with $125.5M (which is still great), while Solo: A Star Wars Story was well below its $130M bottom end 4-day with $110.3M.  Fallen Kingdom is a sequel, we’ll remind you, so no one is expecting that shock-and-awe legacy opening that the 2015 film yielded; everyone is just expecting another healthy $100M-plus opening this summer.

You'd think with having JW and it's tracking numbers from 3 years ago there wouldn't be so much equivocating in this article.  They have base numbers to compare and they have several more $100m+ and 150m+ movies to make comparisons. I gather they are feeling burned by Solo.

 

Edited by TalismanRing
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites


SoSaysI Indie Sensation

SoSaysI

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

FK is harder to gauge than most from pre-sales, but I still maintain that its nature as a direct sequel means it should be posting pretty huge pre-sales if it's going to have a huge OW. 

Yeah, its presales being this low compared to say Deadpool is interesting.  The first one was a walk-up monster but I'm with you that it feels like a sequel to a $650M movie should have much bigger pre-sales than this and I'd be shocked if walk-ups are nearly as high unless reviews are absolutely stellar given that there isn't close to the same hook for this one as there was for JW which did a brilliant job marketing the park is open concept. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites


Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted

Adrift pops into the Top Five over at Fandango: 

2018-05-31 11:00:00	858	Solo A Star Wars Story
2018-05-31 11:00:00	659	Deadpool 2
2018-05-31 11:00:00	288	Book Club
2018-05-31 11:00:00	273	Avengers Infinity War
2018-05-31 11:00:00	177	Adrift (2018)
2018-05-31 11:00:00	144	Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom
2018-05-31 11:00:00	116	Solo A Star Wars Story 3D
2018-05-31 11:00:00	70	Life of the Party
2018-05-31 11:00:00	67	Upgrade (2018)
2018-05-31 11:00:00	65	Incredibles 2
2018-05-31 11:00:00	63	Show Dogs
2018-05-31 11:00:00	56	Solo A Star Wars Story The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-05-31 11:00:00	44	Breaking In (2018)
2018-05-31 11:00:00	37	Solo A Star Wars Story An IMAX 3D Experience
2018-05-31 11:00:00	34	Oceans 8
2018-05-31 11:00:00	32	A Quiet Place
2018-05-31 11:00:00	30	Veere Di Wedding
2018-05-31 11:00:00	29	Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom 3D
2018-05-31 11:00:00	27	Andy Irons Kissed by God
2018-05-31 11:00:00	21	RBG
2018-05-31 11:00:00	20	Overboard (2018)
2018-05-31 11:00:00	16	Action Point
2018-05-31 11:00:00	16	Avengers Infinity War 3D
2018-05-31 11:00:00	14	Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom An IMAX 3D Experience
2018-05-31 11:00:00	13	Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-05-31 11:00:00	11	Rampage (2018)
2018-05-31 11:00:00	7	Carry On Jatta 2
2018-05-31 11:00:00	6	Pope Francis - A Man of His Word
2018-05-31 11:00:00	5	Kaala (Tamil)
2018-05-31 11:00:00	5	First Reformed
2018-05-31 11:00:00	5	Incredibles 2 3D
2018-05-31 11:00:00	4	Kasal
2018-05-31 11:00:00	4	NT LIVE The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time (2018 Encore)
2018-05-31 11:00:00	4	Despicable Me (2010)
2018-05-31 11:00:00	4	Incredibles 2 The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-05-31 11:00:00	3	Blumhouses Truth or Dare (2018)
2018-05-31 11:00:00	3	Isle of Dogs
2018-05-31 11:00:00	3	I Feel Pretty
2018-05-31 11:00:00	3	Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again
2018-05-31 11:00:00	3	Doctor Who Genesis of the Daleks
2018-05-31 11:00:00	3	Black Panther
2018-05-31 11:00:00	2	THE GATES OF HELLHOUSE BY THE CEMETERY
2018-05-31 11:00:00	2	The Producers 50th Anniversary (1968) presented by TCM
2018-05-31 11:00:00	2	Disobedience (2018)
2018-05-31 11:00:00	2	Chappaquiddick
2018-05-31 11:00:00	2	OFFICER (Telugu)
2018-05-31 11:00:00	2	Parmanu The Story of Pokhran
2018-05-31 11:00:00	2	Incredibles Double Feature The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-05-31 11:00:00	2	Sanky Panky 3
2018-05-31 11:00:00	2	102 Not Out
2018-05-31 11:00:00	2	Dr. Seuss The Lorax
2018-05-31 11:00:00	2	Hereditary
2018-05-31 11:00:00	2	Fatestay night [Heaven’s Feel] THE MOVIE I.presage flower
2018-05-31 11:00:00	2	A Wrinkle in Time
2018-05-31 11:00:00	2	2001 A Space Odyssey
2018-05-31 11:00:00	2	Best F(r)iends Volume Two
2018-05-31 11:00:00	1	Raazi
2018-05-31 11:00:00	1	American Animals
2018-05-31 11:00:00	1	DWF REACH
2018-05-31 11:00:00	1	In Emmas Footsteps
2018-05-31 11:00:00	1	DWF Web Block 1
2018-05-31 11:00:00	1	Keep the Change (2018)
2018-05-31 11:00:00	1	Tully (2018)
2018-05-31 11:00:00	1	2001 A Space Odyssey in 70mm
2018-05-31 11:00:00	1	Game Night (2018)
2018-05-31 11:00:00	1	THE SEA STARES AT US FROM AFAR
2018-05-31 11:00:00	1	Sing
2018-05-31 11:00:00	1	Raiders of the Lost Ark (1981)
2018-05-31 11:00:00	1	My Neighbor Totoro – Studio Ghibli Fest 2018
2018-05-31 11:00:00	1	Grateful Dead Meet-Up 2018
2018-05-31 11:00:00	1	The Iron Giant
2018-05-31 11:00:00	1	Hearts Beat Loud
2018-05-31 11:00:00	1	THE UNTITLED YUPPIE FEAR THRILLERFOXFUR
2018-05-31 11:00:00	1	RiffTrax Live Space Mutiny
2018-05-31 11:00:00	1	Raambo 2
2018-05-31 11:00:00	1	The Gospel According to André
2018-05-31 11:00:00	1	On Chesil Beach
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites




Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.

  I accept