The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[WrathOfHan]

Final sales:

 

Venom:

 

5:00: 44/78

6:00 3D: 23/78

7:00: 69/78

8:00 3D: 37/78

9:00 3D: 27/78

Total: 200/390 (113 2D/87 3D)

 

A Star Is Born:

 

7:00: 65/78

8:00: 11/60

8:45: 11/78

Total: 87/216

 

Venom comps:

 

19% of Infinity War (49M)

40% of Black Panther (80.8M)

47% of Deadpool 2 (59M)

59% of Thor: Ragnarok (72.4M)

62% of Justice League (58.2M)

74% of Ant-Man and the Wasp (56.1M)

 

Given the 5 PM start and weak reviews, I'm pretty wary about this hitting 60M. BP and Thor skewed much more towards families and actually had strong reviews.

 

A Star Is Born:

 

95% of Mamma Mia! (33.3M)

105% of A Quiet Place (52.7M)

135% of Ocean's 8 (56.2M)

195% of Wonder (53.6M)

215% of The Post (41.7M)

250% of Red Sparrow (42.3M)

280% of Book Club (38.1M)

 

I'll go with mid-40s on this one. IDK how younger skewing it'll be this weekend

[WeneedtotalkaboutKevin]

By the way, does anyone know the numbers of The Trump Prophecy? I am really curious. 

 

For your information, 

The Trump Prophecy is scheduled to be screened by Fathom Events in theaters throughout the U.S. on October 2 and October 4, 2018.

The film was made with a budget of about $2 million

[DAJK]

2 hours ago, WeneedtotalkaboutKevin said:

By the way, does anyone know the numbers of The Trump Prophecy? I am really curious. 

 

For your information, 

The Trump Prophecy is scheduled to be screened by Fathom Events in theaters throughout the U.S. on October 2 and October 4, 2018.

The film was made with a budget of about $2 million

[La Binoche]

Wait, Gravity only did $1.4M from Thursday shows? https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-gravity-takes-flight-643374

[DAJK]

9 minutes ago, La Binoche said:

Wait, Gravity only did $1.4M from Thursday shows? https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-gravity-takes-flight-643374

To be fair, Gravity came out 5 years ago (holy fucking shit that's crazy... 5 years ago wow) when previews were a lot less prominent in the weekend figure. 

[Firepower]

I think Venom will be less front-loaded than MCU/DCEU movies, so it should hit 70 without any problems. A lot of hype about this movie wasn't from cbm fans, but from average Joes. There should be a lot of walk-ups.

Edited October 5, 2018 by Firepower

[Napoleon]

7 hours ago, WeneedtotalkaboutKevin said:

By the way, does anyone know the numbers of The Trump Prophecy? I am really curious. 

 

For your information, 

The Trump Prophecy is scheduled to be screened by Fathom Events in theaters throughout the U.S. on October 2 and October 4, 2018.

The film was made with a budget of about $2 million

If it was any similar to Trump's performance as president, numbers were certainly very embarrassing and laughable.

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

https://deadline.com/2018/10/halloween-box-office-projection-franchise-record-jamie-lee-curtis-danny-mcbride-jason-blum-1202472084/

 

Universal/Blumhouse/Miramax’s Halloween is flying off the tracking charts. Soon after our sources said around $40M last Thursday for the David Gordon Green-directed movie, tracking services have upped their bets on the horror sequel’s opening to $60M. This morning, Fandango announced that tickets are already on sale for the Oct. 19 release.

[dxmatrixdt]

I think Halloween should be good around 40-50.  It is such an old movie brought back to life and Blade Runner 2049 recently opened under 40.  

The sky is the limit though.  Halloween should spend the same amount with advertising to build the same levels of awareness that IT had.  

They could launch Halloween in the same amount of screens that IT was launched into, gearing for a 100M opening weekend only to see 60% full theaters and a 50 OW.  

Or they could disappoint with 2x screens per theater that reaches full capacity and puts up Conjuring #'s to 50M.  

[Boxofficerules]

2018-10-05 08:00:00	1221	A Star Is Born (2018)
2018-10-05 08:00:00	718	Venom (2018)
2018-10-05 08:00:00	125	Smallfoot
2018-10-05 08:00:00	89	Venom 3D
2018-10-05 08:00:00	68	Night School (2018)
2018-10-05 08:00:00	66	The House with a Clock in its Walls
2018-10-05 08:00:00	60	Venom The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-10-05 08:00:00	56	Halloween (2018)
2018-10-05 08:00:00	34	A Simple Favor

[MCKillswitch123]

39 minutes ago, dtairdryZid said:

I think Halloween should be good around 40-50.  It is such an old movie brought back to life and Blade Runner 2049 recently opened under 40.  

The sky is the limit though.  Halloween should spend the same amount with advertising to build the same levels of awareness that IT had.  

They could launch Halloween in the same amount of screens that IT was launched into, gearing for a 100M opening weekend only to see 60% full theaters and a 50 OW.  

Or they could disappoint with 2x screens per theater that reaches full capacity and puts up Conjuring #'s to 50M.  

Blade Runner 2049 was a near-3 hour slow paced neo noir sequel to a cult classic. Halloween is a dormant franchise, sure, but don't compare its success potential to that of 2049.

[dxmatrixdt]

1 minute ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Blade Runner 2049 was a near-3 hour slow paced neo noir sequel to a cult classic. Halloween is a dormant franchise, sure, but don't compare its success potential to that of 2049.

original Halloween had similar fuzzy background like the original Blade Runner.  old movies remembered on VHS.  Halloween = Halloween H40.  

BR2049 had high expectations and even 4 million in previews to start with.  

[MCKillswitch123]

3 minutes ago, dtairdryZid said:

original Halloween had similar fuzzy background like the original Blade Runner.  old movies remembered on VHS.  Halloween = Halloween H40.  

 BR2049 had high expectations and even 4 million in previews to start with.  

Yeah, but Halloween was a hit, while BR was not. 2049 was frontloaded due to its anti-commercial nature, otherwise it would have done 45-50M, but Halloween is arguably even more anticipated. And you know how hot horror is nowadays? It's not an apt comparison.

[dxmatrixdt]

3 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Yeah, but Halloween was a hit, while BR was not. 2049 was frontloaded due to its anti-commercial nature, otherwise it would have done 45-50M, but Halloween is arguably even more anticipated. And you know how hot horror is nowadays? It's not an apt comparison.

Happy Death Day with 25, slashers don't do much.  50 would be great.  i'm wonder what is already 'pre-sold' to teens on their cell phones, etc.  a lot of movies seem to open well on social media concept alone.  Halloween knives might be asking for a lot, and Jamie Lee Curtis has a way of sneaking into hits

[Amorphous]

Happy Death Day was a brand new original IP slasher film that still managed to make over $110m WW.

 

HALLOWEEN is a well-known established horror brand, that has been dormant for about 10 years. Pile that with the nostalgia factor, great reviews, JLC's performance... $60m is a lock. $50m is the floor imo.

[Eric the Minion]

Sales for all forthcoming films this week

 

Movie/Day	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday
El Royale	39	43	63	49
First Man	189	152	177	130
Goosebumps 2	57	61	63	61
Bohemian	4	4	209	167
Green Book	1	0	0	2

[dxmatrixdt]

Star is Born is ahead of Venom here, but Venom should finish 25 million ahead of Star is Born.  

soon predictions might have to just be based on presumption

Edited October 5, 2018 by dtairdryZid

[Barnack]

Final sales:

 

49337	2018-10-04	THU	Venom

18311	2018-10-04	THU	A Star Is Bor

 

Venom sold 270% of ASIB sales.

 

thursday box office 10m vs 3.2m, Venom had 312.5% of ASIB box office.

 

Would we correct for IMAX and 3D bigger revenues by ticket sales we probably would have not much of a difference, but ASIB start was as if not more pre-sales heavy than a superhero Venom one.

 

If it continue to be the same :

42118	2018-10-05	FRI	Venom

37866	2018-10-05	FRI	A Star Is Bor

This friday box office should much much closer than thursday, with Venom making 130% of ASIB Friday with ASIB having a chance of getting ahead by sunday.

 

But it would not surprise me if Venom BO/fandango sales shift more into family territory mode a little bit for the weekend afternoon and stay ahead.

 

Edited October 5, 2018 by Barnack

[KeepItU25071906]

4 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Final sales:

 

49337	2018-10-04	THU	Venom

18311	2018-10-04	THU	A Star Is Bor

 

Venom sold 270% of ASIB sales.

 

thursday box office 10m vs 3.2m, Venom had 312.5% of ASIB box office.

 

Would we correct for IMAX and 3D bigger revenues by ticket sales we probably would have not much of a difference, but ASIB start was as if not more pre-sales heavy than a superhero Venom one.

 

If it continue to be the same :

42118	2018-10-05	FRI	Venom

37866	2018-10-05	FRI	A Star Is Bor

This friday box office should much much closer than thursday, with Venom making 130% of ASIB Friday.

 

May be:

Venom - 30 - 32 (20-22 True Friday)

ASIB - 20-21  (15,4 - 16,4)

[TalismanRing]

48 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Final sales:

 

49337	2018-10-04	THU	Venom

18311	2018-10-04	THU	A Star Is Bor

 

Venom sold 270% of ASIB sales.

 

thursday box office 10m vs 3.2m, Venom had 312.5% of ASIB box office.

 

Would we correct for IMAX and 3D bigger revenues by ticket sales we probably would have not much of a difference, but ASIB start was as if not more pre-sales heavy than a superhero Venom one.

 

If it continue to be the same :

42118	2018-10-05	FRI	Venom

37866	2018-10-05	FRI	A Star Is Bor

This friday box office should much much closer than thursday, with Venom making 130% of ASIB Friday.

Venom had 5pm pre-sales vs 7pm for ASIB so the % would be skewed there.

 

If the Friday % sales hold pattern there could be a 11% or less diff. 

 

So if ASIB did a $16m Friday it would be a $12.75m - previews and 11% higher would mean a $14.15m true Friday for Venom.

 

Edit: Deadline says the early ASIB estimate is 15-16  including the Wed special shows so that's minus $4.55m for a $10.5-11.5m true Friday.  Hmmm

Edited October 5, 2018 by TalismanRing