Wonder Woman 1984 | Dec 16 2020 OS | Dec 25 2020 US and on HBO MAX

[Maggie]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

You have no evidence to suggest it would, and the less-than-stellar reception would have definitely hurt legs. 1B would've been tough even with strong reception, with this reception it would have been extremely unlikely. 

Legs would have been not good, but OW ...would have done huge numbers so it evens out

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Legs would have been not good, but OW ...would have done huge numbers so it evens out

Enough to increase significantly from the first is unlikely. Even a 160*2.3 gets to 370 domestic, would have dropped quite a bit in China as well. I highly doubt it would've made enough up in the rest of the world to even match the first, let alone hit 1B.

[Ms Lady Hawk]

9 minutes ago, Menor said:

Enough to increase significantly from the first is unlikely. Even a 160*2.3 gets to 370 domestic, would have dropped quite a bit in China as well. I highly doubt it would've made enough up in the rest of the world to even match the first, let alone hit 1B.

I disagree! But it’s impossible to tell either way. Why only an atrocious 2.3 multiplier off a huge weekend? Based on Deadline article, it had an 82% positive and most of the audience were women. Younger kids loved it. We tend to forget that a lot of people do not post online. Therefore, the word of mouth may not have been bad enough to kill it to that extent. 
 

It performed better in at least two Asian markets than the first movie. And Australia was very solid. With Europe mostly closed, there’s no way of knowing. But  I think there is at least a fair chance that of increasing there. But as I said, we’ll never know for certain either way. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

9 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

I disagree! But it’s impossible to tell either way. Why only an atrocious 2.3 multiplier off a huge weekend? Based on Deadline article, it had an 82% positive and most of the audience were women. Younger kids loved it. We tend to forget that a lot of people do not post online. Therefore, the word of mouth may not have been bad enough to kill it to that extent. 
 

It performed better in at least two Asian markets than the first movie. And Australia was very solid. With Europe mostly closed, there’s no way of knowing. But  I think there is at least a fair chance that of increasing there. But as I said, we’ll never know for certain either way. 

A huge weekend by necessity will limit the leg potential, and 82% positive isn't all that great for PostTrak. The audience scores (which have an even stronger selection bias than usual) are a bit below Justice League, which had a 2.4 multi off a significantly lower weekend. So 2.3 or lower seems like a good bet if it indeed opened to 160. 

Edited December 28, 2020 by Menor

[Ms Lady Hawk]

5 minutes ago, Menor said:

A huge weekend by necessity will limit the leg potential, and 82% positive isn't all that great for PostTrak. The audience scores are a bit below Justice League, which had a 2.4 multi off a significantly lower weekend. So 2.3 or lower seems like a good bet if it indeed opened to 160. 

But Captain Marvel opened at over 150 and maybe that opening was attributed to the tie in between the two Avengers movies. It had mixed word of mouth too, but managed a multiplier of 2.8. No reason to believe that this wouldn’t manage at least a 2.5 with who comprises the audience. It’s not only fanboys running out to see it. This was geared to families. And the audience tracking showed a diverse audience. 

Edited December 28, 2020 by Ms Lady Hawk

[Menor the Destroyer]

7 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

But Captain Marvel opened at over 150 and maybe that opening was attributed to the tie in between the two Avengers movies. It had mixed word of mouth too, but managed a multiplier of 2.8. No reason to believe that this wouldn’t manage at least a 2.5 with who comprises the audience. It’s not only fanboys running out to see it. This was geared to families. And the audience tracking showed a diverse audience. 

Captain Marvel had an A on Cinemascore vs this one's B+, higher PostTrak scores and a significantly higher definite recommend (despite WW84's theater surveys being inflated by a bigger selection effect than usual), had better reviews, and had higher online audience scores despite being subjected to probably the biggest online troll campaign for a single movie. Its legs were also helped by the imminent release of Endgame. The situations are not comparable. 

Edited December 28, 2020 by Menor

[Ms Lady Hawk]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

Captain Marvel had an A on Cinemascore vs this one's B+, higher PostTrak scores and a significantly higher definite recommend (despite WW84's theater surveys being inflated by a bigger selection effect than usual), had better reviews, and had higher online audience scores despite being subjected to probably the biggest online troll campaign for a single movie. Its legs were also helped by the imminent release of Endgame. The situations are not comparable. 

Al true! Yet, anecdotally in my personal interactions with people and here online, most people thought Captain Marvel was average. Nothing special. I actually liked it more than most. 
 

I don’t think this would have performed on the level of BvS and JL as far as multipliers. The movie just appeals to a different audience. An audience that helped the first movie to a 4X multiplier. Many of those people would have returned in my view. 
 

Anyways, you’ve  said all over this forum for months what you thought and expects from this film at the box office. I get it. I don’t expect that anything would change your mind. Had it gotten stellar reviews, there would have always been some limitation found by those committed to the it wouldn’t have done this or that crew.  Respect your opinion and agree to disagree.

[Menor the Destroyer]

21 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

Al true! Yet, anecdotally in my personal interactions with people and here online, most people thought Captain Marvel was average. Nothing special. I actually liked it more than most. 
 

I don’t think this would have performed on the level of BvS and JL as far as multipliers. The movie just appeals to a different audience. An audience that helped the first movie to a 4X multiplier. Many of those people would have returned in my view. 
 

Anyways, you’ve  said all over this forum for months what you thought and expects from this film at the box office. I get it. I don’t expect that anything would change your mind. Had it gotten stellar reviews, there would have always been some limitation found by those committed to the it wouldn’t have done this or that crew.  Respect your opinion and agree to disagree.

Well before reviews I thought it would be higher than the first WW, lower DOM, higher INT, but probably a bit below 1B. After the audience response was much lower than I expected, I revised that to thinking it probably wouldn't have beaten the first film WW or INT. But yeah, we'll never truly know. 

[Legion Again]

3 hours ago, Maggie said:

Legs would have been not good, but OW ...would have done huge numbers so it evens out

Good OW wouldn’t get it close to 1B. I was tentative about this like 5 days ago when we just had OS stuff, but cmon now people, this is just silly at this point. There is no way for a reasonable box office person to look at these numbers, at WW1, and think it would have had any shot at a billie.

[cax16]

5 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Good OW wouldn’t get it close to 1B. I was tentative about this like 5 days ago when we just had OS stuff, but cmon now people, this is just silly at this point. There is no way for a reasonable box office person to look at these numbers, at WW1, and think it would have had any shot at a billie.

I agree with you but at this point I don’t think anyone is changing anyone else’s mind lol 

[Legion Again]

Like, have you *really* thought about the numbers? What is it the supposed to do, 170*3 DOM, +50% from its actual performance in China, +35% OS-C from WW1... and still miss 1B by 20M??? The path simply isn’t there, numerically, and those are the facts. I wouldn’t agree to some “respect differing opinions” stuff if the claim was “WW84 would have hit 2B in a non-covid world” and the 1B claim is nearly as silly with all the information we now have,

Edited December 28, 2020 by WandaLegion

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, cax16 said:

I agree with you but at this point I don’t think anyone is changing anyone else’s mind lol 

True enough, this should probably be the last I say on the matter. 
 

 

But realistically if I see someone say it could have made a Billie next week, I dunno if I’ll have the discipline to resist 😂

[cax16]

10 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

True enough, this should probably be the last I say on the matter. 
 

 

But realistically if I see someone say it could have made a Billie next week, I dunno if I’ll have the discipline to resist 😂

Lol, I didn’t mean to imply you shouldn’t respond anymore, you’re not being rude or anything. I just don’t think you’ll change specific people’s minds, and that’s fine cause they’re entitled to their own opinions. 
 

But ya, realistically I don’t see how this had a path to a billion. 

Edited December 28, 2020 by cax16

[filmlover]

Don't know if this was mentioned but:

 

 

Private watch parties and large format screens drove ticket sales for Wonder Woman 1984--roughly 10k private rentals were booked this weekend.

— Exhibitor Relations Co. (@ERCboxoffice) December 27, 2020

 

10K is a really big number, but not at all surprising. It was the easiest way to see it on the big screen in a 100% safe and stress-free environment.

Edited December 28, 2020 by filmlover

[TwoMisfits]

6 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Don't know if this was mentioned but:

 

 

 

10K is a really big number, but not at all surprising. It was the easiest way to see it on the big screen in a 100% safe and stress-free environment.

It's big, but the rentals at Cinemark are $149 for new releases (and I gotta think AMC's price is close to that)...so 10K rentals equals about $1.5M of revenue...which is about 9% of the opening weekend revenue, but not so much that I'd say it "drove sales" - what it probably did help do was make all those small 50 and 60 seat theaters profitable, leaving the big 200-250 screens open for 50-80 "open" ticket sales, where they could make about $1K/showing...

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

It's big, but the rentals at Cinemark are $149 for new releases (and I gotta think AMC's price is close to that)...so 10K rentals equals about $1.5M of revenue...which is about 9% of the opening weekend revenue, but not so much that I'd say it "drove sales" - what it probably did help do was make all those small 50 and 60 seat theaters profitable, leaving the big 200-250 screens open for 50-80 "open" ticket sales, where they could make about $1K/showing...

FWIW the theater I saw it at via a private rental (with 15 other people in a 50 seat auditorium) yesterday sold out most of the regular shows Friday night (at half capacity, of course) and seemed very busy on Saturday also but there were also like 20-25 private shows for each day and I'm guessing pretty much all of them were for Wonder Woman. Wouldn't be surprised if they just keep the extra auditoriums for people who want to watch a movie on the big screen but in a private rental with no one to bother them once the pandemic has subsided and things start returning to normal. It's easier than downsizing anyway.

[cax16]

Private theatre rental is the only way I’ll be going back to the movies next year. Our big chain just announced they were about to start these before the latest lockdown so I hope they still offer them next year for some big movies. 

[Cap]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

10K is a really big number, but not at all surprising. It was the easiest way to see it on the big screen in a 100% safe and stress-free environment.

This is how we did ours. It was $190 for the auditorium, and totally worth every penny.  I brought the whole fam as a Christmas gift, so about thirteen of us.  We had masks in the lobby, but could take them off in the theater.  The lobby was empty cause the showing wasn't at a normal time (like 12, 3, 7), but started an hour later.  Didn't see a single other person.  

 

Just a really lovely time.  If it's this same hellscape in May, I'm 100% doing it for Widow on IMAX.  

 

Also, I like, really miss going to the movies.  Just going was so fun! 😔

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

It's big, but the rentals at Cinemark are $149 for new releases (and I gotta think AMC's price is close to that)...so 10K rentals equals about $1.5M of revenue...which is about 9% of the opening weekend revenue, but not so much that I'd say it "drove sales" - what it probably did help do was make all those small 50 and 60 seat theaters profitable, leaving the big 200-250 screens open for 50-80 "open" ticket sales, where they could make about $1K/showing...

 

Good analysis, BTW. 👍

 

Quote

–There were 10K private watch parties for WW1984 (such as Cinemark’s “Private Watch Parties” and AMC’s “Private Theater Rentals”, as well as National Amusements, Alamo Drafthouse, Marcus, Studio Movie Grill, Megaplex, Santikos, B&B Theaters, etc.). I’m told these alone repped 10% of the sequel’s weekend results.

(source: The Ever Reliable Deadline)

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, Wondy said:

This is how we did ours. It was $190 for the auditorium, and totally worth every penny.  I brought the whole fam as a Christmas gift, so about thirteen of us.  We had masks in the lobby, but could take them off in the theater.  The lobby was empty cause the showing wasn't at a normal time (like 12, 3, 7), but started an hour later.  Didn't see a single other person.  

 

Just a really lovely time.  If it's this same hellscape in May, I'm 100% doing it for Widow on IMAX.  

 

Also, I like, really miss going to the movies.  Just going was so fun! 😔

Same! This was my first trip back to the theater since Tenet three months ago and it was definitely a blast. The price (around $160) ended up being about the same as what we would've paid to see it together at a regular show. Could only do this as part of a group though. Already planning the next one for when Raya & the Last Dragon comes out in early March.