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Weekend Thread | Actuals ~ BR2049 32.753M :((, TMBU 10.551M, It 9.972M, MLP:TM 8.885M, K:TGC 8.675M, AM 8.446M, TLNM 7.002 M, V&A 4.171M | All those posts will be lost in time, like tears in rain. Time to die

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2nd Update, Friday 7:31 AM: The numbers are in and Warner Bros. is reporting $4M for Alcon Entertainment/Sony’s Blade Runner 2049. That’s on the high end of what we reported late last night. The Denis Villeneuve-directed sci-fi sequel to Ridley Scott’s 1982 cult classic expands to 4,058 theaters today.

http://deadline.com/2017/10/ryan-gosling-blade-runner-2049-harrison-ford-opening-weekend-box-office-1202183063/

 

Kingsman2 was 11.5x and Fury Road was 13.35x (summer).

12-14x gives 48-56m ow.

Edited by a2knet
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If it follows Covenant:

 

14.6M

11.4M

8.4M

34.4M Weekend

 

Golden Circle:

 

18M

17.3M

10.7M

46M Weekend

 

It:

 

14.9M

13.3M

8.3M

36.5M Weekend

 

GOTG2:
 

13.2M

12.1M

9.2M

34.5M Weekend

 

Logan:

 

13.9M

13.2M

10.2M

37.3M Weekend

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1.044m Thu for K2, could do 9m over the weekend

 

2.7 (+159%) + 3.95 (+46%) + 2.35 (-40.5%) = 9.0 (-46.9%)

Last weekend FSS holds were +149.9%, +54.1%, -40.7%

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3 minutes ago, a2knet said:

1.044m Thu for K2, could do 9m over the weekend

 

2.7 (+159%) + 3.95 (+46%) + 2.35 (-40.5%) = 9.0 (-46.9%)

Last weekend FSS holds were +149.9%, +54.1%, -40.7%

 

I don't see why the Friday increase would be better than last week with BR2049 being out. Maybe I'm forgetting something

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4 minutes ago, a2knet said:

1.044m Thu for K2, could do 9m over the weekend

 

2.7 (+159%) + 3.95 (+46%) + 2.35 (-40.5%) = 9.0 (-46.9%)

Last weekend FSS holds were +149.9%, +54.1%, -40.7%

I considered going into the high-8's but settled at 8.3M. A lot of people lowballed It and AM in the Derby (but not me :sparta: )

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I think this has a solid shot at $50M and here's why...

 

Let's look at the target demographic for Blade Runner, the GA, older audiences and Ryan Gosling fans + cinephiles who loved the original.

 

The older audiences will most likely not see until later in the weekend. It's mostly the cinephiles and nerds who are seeing this on preview night, that's why I think this will be much more backloaded than expected...

 

$56.4M 

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5 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

I don't see why the Friday increase would be better than last week with BR2049 being out. Maybe I'm forgetting something

Yeah I may have been blindsided by MAG7 which posted a bigger jump on it's 3rd Friday and felt that's how movies perform as numbers get smaller. But IT showed a much smaller jump on the 3rd Friday (130% vs 160%) cause it faced competition from K2 and lost premium screens. So K2 also could end up lower on Friday than my jump (+160%). So going in a different direction:

 

2.5 (+140%) + 3.75 (+50%) + 2.25 (-40.5%) = 8.5m (-50%) or a tad less could also happen.

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3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Pretty solid numbers to me. Keep in mind it's a long movie so a lot of theaters could only squeeze in 2-3 shows at most.

I agree.  And that second showing was 10:35-10:55 at theaters I checked.  So for one you're talking about getting out at 1:30am....and this is a movie to stay awake for and pay attention to detail.  At my theater ~77% of all sales were the three 7-730pm shows yesterday.  BR selling quite well all of today here (Northern VA) and may close to quadruple yesterday (will try to keep tabs)

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Projections For Weekend:

 

Blade Runner 2049:

 

23M

21.9M (-5%)

13.2M (-40%) 

$58.1M - $60.5M Weekend

 

My Little Pony: 

 

6M

8.1M (+35%)

5.2M (-36%)

$19.3M - $20M Weekend

 

TMBU:

 

5.1M

4.3M (-15%)

2.5M (-43%)

$11.9M - $12.5M Weekend

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