Monday Numbers: Justice League 7.5M | Wonder 4M | Thor 2.5M

[Ms Lady Hawk]

The drop would make sense that only 35% of schools are closed in Norrh America. If Rth is right and he usually is, the drop is 68%. Under normal circumstances, it would have probably been around the 75% that Thor had. 

 

I think it is not an apples to apples comparison to compare JL to MJ2 and FB. Those two movies were not CBM, who seem to have greater drops than other movies. I will be happy so long as JL makes ~60 million over the 5 days. If that happens, maybe it can pull a 2.5 multiplier, which wouldn’t be bad. Although the final total would be underwhelming. 

[That One Girl]

1 hour ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

 

@CoolioD1 you were right

[ZattMurdock]

Movie is doomed. No way around that. What happens next is what I don't know how it'll go. 

[Lordmandeep]

Thor 3 should do well this week.

 

Likely be at 275 million by Sunday?

[a2k]

93.8 OW

7.3 (Asgard)

10.3 (+41%)

11.5 (+12%)

9.0 (-20%)

17.0 (+90%)

15.5 (-9%)

9.0 (-47%) [41.5 2nd weekend / -56%]

173.4 10-day cume [93.8 ow + 79.6 7-day*]

 

*If it adds 79.6 more to the 10-day total then 173.4 + 79.6 = 253 dom [2.7x]

 

Looks optimistic but I didn't go for that, just used holds off the top my head.

MJ1 did 2.77x and MJ2 did 2.74x.

Edited November 21, 2017 by a2knet

[weresweresweres]

3 minutes ago, a2knet said:

93.8 OW

7.3 (Asgard)

10.3 (+41%)

8.0 (-22%)

7.0 (-12.5%)

14.0 (+100%)

13.0 (-7%)

7.0 (-46%) [34 2nd weekend / -63.8%]

160.4 cume [93.8 + 66.6 next 7 days*]

 

*If it adds 66.6 more to it's cume then will do about 160.4 + 66.6 = 227 dom [2.42x multiplier]

 

Looks conservative but I didn't go for conservatism. Just used those drops off the top of my head looking at FB, MJ1, MJ2 and ended with these numbers.

That 2.42x multiplier honestly is not very low, even if conservative. 2.50x/~235 dom to go more optimistic.

So JL may lose with Logan?

[Ms Lady Hawk]

5 minutes ago, a2knet said:

93.8 OW

7.3 (Asgard)

10.3 (+41%)

8.0 (-22%)

7.0 (-12.5%)

14.0 (+100%)

13.0 (-7%)

7.0 (-46%) [34 2nd weekend / -63.8%]

160.4 cume 10-day [93.8 OW + 66.6 next 7 days*]

 

*If it adds 66.6 more to it's cume then will do about 160.4 + 66.6 = 227 dom [2.42x multiplier]

 

Looks conservative but I didn't go for conservatism. Just used those drops off the top of my head looking at FB, MJ1, MJ2 and ended with these numbers.

That 2.42x multiplier honestly is not very low, even if conservative: 2.50x/~235 dom to go more optimistic.

That is horrible. I would be king of disappointed, if it did that. You did not give it any benefit of the 5 day holiday. I see no difference from a regular week with your numbers. 

[a2k]

10 minutes ago, weresweresweres said:

So JL may lose with Logan?

I redid my calcls. Had a big error.

Edited November 21, 2017 by a2knet

[MCKillswitch123]

34 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

@CoolioD1 you were right

...is that a good thing for me?

Edited November 21, 2017 by MCKillswitch123

[a2k]

8 minutes ago, Diana Prince said:

That is horrible. I would be king of disappointed, if it did that. You did not give it any benefit of the 5 day holiday. I see no difference from a regular week with your numbers. 

You are right. I fucked up the Wed bump. Re-did the calcs.

[titanic2187]

38 minutes ago, Diana Prince said:

The drop would make sense that only 35% of schools are closed in Norrh America. If Rth is right and he usually is, the drop is 68%. Under normal circumstances, it would have probably been around the 75% that Thor had. 

 

I think it is not an apples to apples comparison to compare JL to MJ2 and FB. Those two movies were not CBM, who seem to have greater drops than other movies. I will be happy so long as JL makes ~60 million over the 5 days. If that happens, maybe it can pull a 2.5 multiplier, which wouldn’t be bad. Although the final total would be underwhelming. 

FB may not a good comparison, but if even MJ1 and MJ2 is best "candidates" to compare with, I dont know what else can be used

[RamblinRed]

Unfortunately, that is a poor number for JL. Last 10 years the avg drop on Thanksgiving week Monday is -63.6% with the worst being a -65% drop. Will be interesting to see the rise today. Last 3 years the avg Tuesday increase is almost 34% with a 20% increase on Wednesday. Anything less than a 31-32% increase today would be very worrisome.

 

I think Coco has a good chance of beating out JL, not just for the weekend but for total DOM.

if it wasn't for Wonder i would think a possible big break out as Pixar movies tend to be driven more by reviews than marketing. I'm thinking somewhere close to $50MM for the 3-day and close to $70 for the 5 day. I'm sort of expecting it to follow Moana pretty closely.

It will probably help that is has the new Frozen short attached to it. That is a big thing in the US and I think just having that short might add a couple of million to its OW totals.

[kayumanggi]

I guess my country is one of the few territories where JL is doing gangbuster business. It opened to 5.6 M (4 days), the biggest opening for a WB title ever.

 

Comparisons:

 

4.6 M WONDER WOMAN (5 days) | 10.6 M total

4.1 M SPIDER-MAN: HOMECOMING (5 days) | 7.5 M total

3.9 M THOR: RAGNAROK (5 days). | 7.8 M so far

3.2 M GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY II (5 days) | 6.3 M total

[The Panda]

2 hours ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

So how does it work? All students have the week off? Just college?  High school?

My university gets out Wednesday but many have the whole week

[narniadis]

The school thing definitely depends on the district. My university is one of the few in the state that is out all week. And my oldest is out all week as well but the towns on either side of us go through Wednesday noon. 

 

Very confusing schedule. Good for me this week though considering the baby lol. 

[Krissykins]

Just guessing but I think a best case scenario will be about $130-133m before Friday and then a $45m weekend. 

[raegr]

On 11/21/2017 at 2:29 AM, Mojoguy said:

JL turning out to be more fanboy driven than MJ1, MJ2, and FB.

Oh you actually thought the GA actually give a fart about this movie?

Edited November 22, 2017 by raegr

[Brainiac5]

1 hour ago, RamblinRed said:

Unfortunately, that is a poor number for JL. Last 10 years the avg drop on Thanksgiving week Monday is -63.6% with the worst being a -65% drop. Will be interesting to see the rise today. Last 3 years the avg Tuesday increase is almost 34% with a 20% increase on Wednesday. Anything less than a 31-32% increase today would be very worrisome.

 

I think Coco has a good chance of beating out JL, not just for the weekend but for total DOM.

if it wasn't for Wonder i would think a possible big break out as Pixar movies tend to be driven more by reviews than marketing. I'm thinking somewhere close to $50MM for the 3-day and close to $70 for the 5 day. I'm sort of expecting it to follow Moana pretty closely.

It will probably help that is has the new Frozen short attached to it. That is a big thing in the US and I think just having that short might add a couple of million to its OW totals.

Yeah ,Things are looking worse as the days go on

[Captain Craig]

14 hours ago, Dragon said:

What happens? is lighting going to strike us?

It has struck TJL film from....

Edited November 21, 2017 by Captain Craig

[Ms Lady Hawk]

 

 

BoxOfficeReport.com

@BORReport

 

 

Justice League passed the $100M domestic mark on Monday after grossing an estimated $7.51M for the day. 4-Day total stands at $101.35M

 

 

 

Edited November 21, 2017 by Diana Prince