New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[B D Joe]

Jumanji's box office shows what happens when you take a recognizable IP and make an actual good movie with it.

[WrathOfHan]

TLJ's runtime will undoubtedly affect its TC towards the end of January and into February. Once this loses its extra screens, a lot of theaters will only be able to show it 3 times per day if they aren't open late. The long runtime makes it hard to effectively put multiple movies on a single screen, so midsize theaters might be better off just dumping it altogether if it isn't making much.

[LinksterAC]

16 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

I stand utterly schooled. 

[mikee11]

so -/+ 1 percent saturday? 

[Valonqar]

9 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

SW IX is not like DH2, it is the end of nothing.

 

 

They said it's the end of the Skywalker Saga, not all SW movies. And the Saga is still the most important so there's a hook. I'm going with what LF says.

[redfirebird2008]

12 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

TLJ's runtime will undoubtedly affect its TC towards the end of January and into February. Once this loses its extra screens, a lot of theaters will only be able to show it 3 times per day if they aren't open late. The long runtime makes it hard to effectively put multiple movies on a single screen, so midsize theaters might be better off just dumping it altogether if it isn't making much.

 

Runtime is no different than TDK or DMC and TLJ has the better release date for a strong multiplier. 

[Brainbug]

Some good news: The 2017 calendar grosses for December have overtaken 2016:

 

2017	$1,194.8	-	205	$5.8	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	$483.8	40.5%
2016	$1,190.8	-8.8%	229	$5.2	Rogue One	$408.2	34.3%

[Truckasaurus]

I need someone to give me a good reasoning for TLJ dropping from Thursday to Friday. This is baffling to me.

[Barnack]

11 minutes ago, B D Joe said:

Jumanji's box office shows what happens when you take a recognizable IP and make an actual good movie with it.

Have not seen it but is Jumanji better than MadMax, Blade Runner, Creed, etc....

 

Look what happen when you take a recognizable IP and make one of the worst blockbuster of all time with it (Suicide Squad) or mediocre passable movie (spider man homecoming), not much different result between all those 3.

 

Good help over bad for sure (Jumanji 58 MC score certainly help versus a 35 it could have got if it was bad), but would be curious to see how big is a factor versus good trailer vs a bad trailer and the other important element like the genre, 4 quadrant target audience, aiming for the lowest common dominator possible in all aspect.

[ThiagoMaia]

22 minutes ago, B D Joe said:

Jumanji's box office shows what happens when you take a recognizable IP and make an actual good movie with it.

Didn't work for Blade Runner...

[JB33]

4 minutes ago, Truckasaurus said:

I need someone to give me a good reasoning for TLJ dropping from Thursday to Friday. This is baffling to me.

This is no longer the calendar. This is people not bothering to rush in for this movie, which seems unthinkable. That's the WOM affecting it. It's also Jumanji slowly taking over.

 

@JonathanLB @The Last Panda what are your thoughts?

Edited December 30, 2017 by JB33

[ThiagoMaia]

2 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Have not seen it but is Jumanji better than MadMax, Blade Runner, Creed, etc....

 

Look what happen when you take a recognizable IP and make one of the worst blockbuster of all time with it (Suicide Squad) or mediocre passable movie (spider man homecoming), not much different result between all those 3.

 

Good help over bad for sure (Jumanji 58 MC score certainly help versus a 35 it could have got if it was bad), but would be curious to see how big is a factor versus good trailer vs a bad trailer and the other important element like the genre, 4 quadrant target audience, aiming for the lowest common dominator possible in all aspect.

I like you, man. I find you to be probably the most consistently reasonable poster in this forums. Not that there are not other posters who are usually reasonable, but you always come up with great analysis and counter points, taking many variables into account. Keep up the good work.

[Brainbug]

TLJ is now in the Top 10 DOM Movies of all time unadjusted. Deserves a mention i think.

 

1	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	BV	$936,662,225	2015
2	Avatar	Fox	$760,507,625	2009^
3	Titanic	Par.	$659,363,944	1997^
4	Jurassic World	Uni.	$652,270,625	2015
5	Marvel's The Avengers	BV	$623,357,910	2012
6	The Dark Knight	WB	$534,858,444	2008^
7	Rogue One: A Star Wars Story	BV	$532,177,324	2016
8	Beauty and the Beast (2017)	BV	$504,014,165	2017
9	Finding Dory	BV	$486,295,561	2016
10	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	BV	$483,762,228	2017

[Wrath]

35 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Yes. I remember Deadline beeing hilariously wrong in the past, but in the last 6 months or so, they were quite good with their calculations.

People make fun of Deadline, and their day-specific math is sometimes hilariously awful.

 

But their predictions overall are much better than people give them credit. I spent over a year tracking Thursday predicts for OWs, and no one on this website who predicted reasonably often (for more than ~15% of openers) outperformed Deadline. Our collective median prediction did much better than any one particular person, and even that did worse than Deadline.

[Daxtreme]

1 hour ago, Darth Boh-ne'er said:

 

Because, spoiler alert, Vader was destroyed when Anakin was redeemed in ROTJ.  That's why you see Anakin's force ghost, not Vader. 

 

Hence why bringing in Vader would, in my opinion, be worse far worse for the character of Luke and the entire arc of Vader in the OT than anything in TLJ. 

 

I think that people  (@Christmas baumer and a few others) who are suggesting that Vader makes an appearance in IX are really talking about Anakin making an appearance as a Ghost, not Darth Vader in his suit.

 

That would make absolutely 0 sense whatsoever. Why would he have his suit after his death? 

 

...

 

...

 

Except if he wanted to troll a certain someone   

 

That would be so like Vader I hope it happens now LMAO

[Wrath]

5 minutes ago, ThiagoMaia said:

Didn't work for Blade Runner...

Eh, people forget that the original Bladerunner was a borderline flop at the box office.

[Brainbug]

Just now, Wrath said:

Eh, people forget that the original Bladerunner was a borderline flop at the box office.

 

Didnt help that BR 2049 - while an absolute masterpiece - was nearly 3 hours long, had slow pacing and dark themes. Not very uplifting. It never seemed like something that could really break out. Ignoring the budget, its BO numbers DOM and Worldwide arent that bad for the kind of artsy-sci-fi-movie it is.

[That One Girl]

The fuck is this shitty ass background?

[ThiagoMaia]

Does anyone here use Imdb's list feature to make lists? I use it to keep track of my top 100 movies to for Panda's list (by the way, is that still a thing?), But recently they changed the system, and apparently the only way to change the order of titles is change the number of the titles you want to change the order, witch in a 100 titles list is going to take forever. Does anyone know of another way?

[IronJimbo]

5 minutes ago, B D Joe said:

Jumanji's box office shows what happens when you take a recognizable IP and make an actual good movie with it.

Reminds me of the Cameron quote where he gives the advice to hollywood to simply make better movies.