Weekend Thread - Insidious 29.6M, Jumanji 37.2M, TLJ 23.7M, TGS 13.8M, PP3 10.3

[Valonqar]

38 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

I tend to agree, a slight rebound for EP9 to 1.4B is conceivable, but to nearly 1.8B is just highly unlikely, unless China suddenly embraces the franchise or US dollar suddenly dropping like crazy. The finality isn't there anymore, and there's also not as much of a hook/draw for EP9. It's not like we have a large sample size to claim there's a definitive trend for these films.

Tough luck. Disney actually marketed TLJ a lot in China but SW simply isn't catching on despite big events with the cast:

 

 

So there wasn't a lack of marketing.

 

[Jonwo]

I wonder if Sony could risk Jumanji II (or is it III?) for summer 2020 or 2021. December 2020 it would face not only Avatar but Sing 2, I don't think Sing 2 is going to be as big as Sing but I could see it grossing $200m. 

 

Off-topic but I wonder if The Post will have a halo effect on Ready Player One, I imagine if it has awards buzz, you can bet WB will try and use that in RPO's marketing.

Edited January 7, 2018 by Jonwo

[YM!]

4 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

I wonder if Sony could risk Jumanji II (or is it III?) for summer 2020 or 2021. December 2020 it would face not only Avatar but Sing 2, I don't think Sing 2 is going to be as big as Sing but I could see it grossing $200m. 

 

Off-topic but I wonder if The Post will have a halo effect on Ready Player One, I imagine if it has awards buzz, you can bet WB will try and use that in RPO's marketing.

Not to mention, SPA’s Vivo has a December 2020 release date. 

[YM!]

I think Jumanji 2 will either come out December 2019 or March 2020

[cannastop]

4 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

Off-topic but I wonder if The Post will have a halo effect on Ready Player One, I imagine if it has awards buzz, you can bet WB will try and use that in RPO's marketing.

"From the Director of The Post"? I'd think they'd just go with "From Steven Spielberg".

[Jonwo]

6 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I think Jumanji 2 will either come out December 2019 or March 2020

December 2019's unlikely since Johnson is super busy in 2018. Spring 2020 could work but I think Sony would more likely go for summer. 

[YM!]

10 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

December 2019's unlikely since Johnson is super busy in 2018. Spring 2020 could work but I think Sony would more likely go for summer. 

Depending on how Godzilla 2 does I can see Sony taking the 5/29/20 or 6/5/20 (since I think DC moved a movie to July) spot or scaring GVK out of the Memorial Day spot. Or June. July seems packed.

 

In terms of drops, looking at NATM 1 Adjusted ($330M) which is where it could head, I am thinking Smithsonian numbers adjusted ($210M) is too big of a drop but maybe just maybe it can be a Dead Men’s Chest situation.

Edited January 7, 2018 by YourMother the Edgelord

[Jonwo]

Just now, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Depending on how Godzilla 2 does I can see Sony taking the 5/29/20 or 6/5/20 (since I think DC moved a movie to July) spot or scaring it out of the Memorial Day spot. Or June. July seems packed.

 

In terms of drops, looking at NATM 1 Adjusted ($330M) which is where it could head, I am thinking Smithsonian numbers adjusted ($210M) is too big of a drop but maybe just maybe it can be a Dead Men’s Chest situation.

I have a feeling it won't increase, I think much like NATM, Jumanji was the right movie at the right time and that's not easy to replicate second time around. 

 

I think Scooby will move as well which will free up May 15th, I imagine WB will probably move the summer DC film to July 24th unless they have another tentpole planned for that slot like a new Nolan film or something else.

[DAR]

Godzilla 2 is one of those sequels I completely forget is coming 

[Cookson]

5 minutes ago, DAR said:

Godzilla 2 is one of those sequels I completely forget is coming 

Well, it has been 5 years. Luckily I think it'll have a different tone.. which will help it.

[YM!]

14 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

I have a feeling it won't increase, I think much like NATM, Jumanji was the right movie at the right time and that's not easy to replicate second time around. 

 

I think Scooby will move as well which will free up May 15th, I imagine WB will probably move the summer DC film to July 24th unless they have another tentpole planned for that slot like a new Nolan film or something else.

If Gnomes flops and goes sub $50M (which is probably happening) and Amusement Park goes sub $100M, Scoob can scare off Paramount’s animated film if not, that 5/29/20 or 6/5/20 spot is available, I’m pretty sure that DC film in June moved to July 24th since they have a date for that as an Untitled DC film. Or move it to September, but then again looking at Owls, Ninjago, and Storks it might be better of in the Summer. Not to mention Croods 2 is there but then again that’s flopping. If Smallfoot does good (I have a little more hope due to the cast (LeBron James, Tatum and Zendaya can be big draws) maybe September will be better

 

I can’t see Jumanji 2 in that spot due to the fact that GV3 could be that 5/1/20 spot and I think Sony might want a little more space. There’s also an empty March or if Sony really wants it, and go for that 6/26 spot (with the Disney/Fox deal I don’t see over 3 Marvel movies a year) and they can try to compete with Minions 2 which could go sub $200M.

Edited January 7, 2018 by YourMother the Edgelord

[Ryan Reynolds]

45 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

December 2019's unlikely since Johnson is super busy in 2018. Spring 2020 could work but I think Sony would more likely go for summer. 

in 2020 The Rock is running for President

[Maxmoser3]

The Rock is going to have a strong 2018/2019. Jumanji will be a big holdover this month. Rampage may perform like San Andreas, and Skyscraper(if it comes out) could do fine as well with two strong studios behind them. Hobbs and Shaw should be a decent hit with the branding, overseas, and probably a big marketing campaign. 

[EmpireCity]

2 hours ago, BK007 said:

 

@EmpireCity why would they sabotage their own movie? They've seen both films, and I'm assuming they'd already known Ferdinand's OW when they were doing this?

 

 

They thought Ferdinand was going to be their big animated hit and make $150m.  Fox didn't know the opening weekend at that point because it hadn't opened yet.  

[MattW]

1 hour ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

in 2020 The Rock is running for President

If it comes out March 2020 it could be done filming summer 2019 right when campaigns are revving up.

[Adm56]

I didn't like TLJ. I wouldn't mind if it didn't make another dollar but obviously it will. It obviously made money for Disney but I honestly believe they feel like they left hundreds of millions on the table due to the mixed WoM. 

 

I think Solo will open much lower (I don't base this on any box office knowledge so excuse me if this is a no $#-+ Sherlock comment)  because fool me once etc. Hopefully it will be a better movie and have good legs.

 

But honestly while I wouldn't mind having another good movie in a franchise I normally enjoy I wouldn't mind a flop either because SOMETHING has to get Disney to put more effort into these movies. Their output so far has been very lazy IMO. A rehash of New Hope....a troubled RO production....TLJ with its paint by numbers plot and anti-Star Wars approach...and another troubled production with Solo. Episode 9 seems their closest opportunity to course correct. 

 

I want to see TLJ end up below TA DOM as I genuinely loved TA (saw it four times in the theater which is a lot for me). Hopefully Disney doesn't Puerto Rico it. 

 

And please no more Rian Johnson. I haven't seen enough of his other work to form a useful opinion on his overall talent but he seems poorly suited for Star Wars.

Edited January 7, 2018 by Adm56
Typos

[DAJK]

Insidious at my theatre down from our equivalent of 11.25M Friday to 7-8M Saturday. I want to say it'll be on the higher end of that but the late show surprised me last night so it could surprise going lower aswell.

[Mojoguy]

The Rock getting another win this weekend.

[Son Tung M-TP]

So Dwayne Johnson beats out Rian Johnson this weekend. Interesting.

[Chad Stevens]

All day long it's about the failure "The Last Jedi" is, and how wonderful "Jumanji" and just about every other film is. 

 

Jumanji

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$219,172,666	58.2%
+ Foreign:	$157,514,016	41.8%
= Worldwide:	$376,686,682

 

The Last Jedi 

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$555,546,602	49.2%
+ Foreign:	$573,500,000	50.8%
= Worldwide:	$1,129,046,602

 

Flop or no flop, its running about 420 million OS more and 330 DOM more

 

750 Million PLUS, lol

 

Don't give me the "but it's Star Wars!" it SHOULD

 

nope, you lose that argument when you called it a flop

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 7, 2018 by Chad Stevens