Weekend Thread - Insidious 29.6M, Jumanji 37.2M, TLJ 23.7M, TGS 13.8M, PP3 10.3

[Brainbug]

Just now, Taruseth said:

In the last month they were good, and normally they over predict, they at least did it with TLJ.

 

So maybe they'll underpredict it now to make it look better

[Ryan Reynolds]

Bad drop for TLJ, at least they didn't film Episode 9 yet, still  time to course correct to the displease of critics

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Taruseth said:

In the last month they were good, and normally they over predict, they at least did it with TLJ.

 

I don't care how good they were.  It's 1:30 on the west coast.  

[el sid]

9 minutes ago, hw64 said:

Was it updated since you posted? It now reads:

 

2nd Update, midday: According to industry estimates, Sony’s Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle is dominating in its third weekend with an estimated $26.6M, however, it’s not the only movie ganging up on Disney/Lucasfilm’ The Last Jedi which is looking like it’s headed to third with with $20.1M. Universal/Blumhouse’s Insidious: The Last Key is currently eyeing second with  $21.75M

You're right  . Now it says 10.5-11M for Insidious 4.

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

 

Well, let's see what Jedi does first today.  Deadline is deadline.  They're projections are usually horrible.  I don't see Insidious doing more than 22 million.  So for Jedi to drop that much would be a bit surprising imo.

 

Their projections have been pretty solid lately.

 

You should not be that surprised by TLJ dropping that much. There is shitty weather for one thing. Rogue One and TFA both dropped 53-55% Not that surprising to see something similar happen for TLJ and then throw in shitty weather (worse drop).

[WrathOfHan]

10 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

It's Deadline so lalalala I can't hear you. I'm waiting for God of Asgard. 

 

4 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Well, let's see what Jedi does first today.  Deadline is deadline.  They're projections are usually horrible.  I don't see Insidious doing more than 22 million.  So for Jedi to drop that much would be a bit surprising imo.

Are we really doing this after last week?  

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Their projections have been pretty solid lately.

 

You should not be that surprised by TLJ dropping that much. There is shitty weather for one thing. Rogue One and TFA both dropped 53-55% Not that surprising to see something similar happen for TLJ and then throw in shitty weather (worse drop).

 

Of note, the 26,6M Jumanji number would be a 47% drop. Nothing bad of course, but for such a WOM-juggernaut, that may also be a sign that the weather indeed depresses the numbers a bit?

[redfirebird2008]

3 minutes ago, el sid said:

You're right  . Now it says 10.5-11M for Insidious 4.

 

That's the Friday projection. The other numbers are weekend projections.

[TwoMisfits]

3 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

To all those poo-pooing Insidious's chance to pull an upset on TLJ (and I'll start with saying I'm not confident in badly reviewed 4-quels, but let me sell the chance)...

1. Moviepass is 75% millenials - that is this movie's core audience...and this core audience hasn't had a new movie for 2 weeks (with last weekend pretty much only expanding limiteds), so they might be ready for a new one

2. Horror hasn't been around for months...built-up demand for anything

3. College students are the ones still out of school - it's still like the holidays for them, and this movie can be "one last hurrah"

4. The core audience is more likely to actually leave the house in ice...TLJ's 35+ audience is gonna open the door and say "nah, it's a Netflix night", but Insidious' 17-30 audience is gonna be like "ahhh, I need out of this house - I'll watch anything"...

5. TLJ lost some of its showings/screens...a not insignificant number of theaters either have now '"skimmed" the rules or flat out broken the agreements...fewer showings are fewer opportunities to rack up bored money...and more likelihood of bigger drops...

6. Jumanji is firmly the family choice - Insidious will firmly be the 17-30 choice, and some of those expanding limiteds might become the old person choice...TLJ becomes the 2nd choice of all...

 

So, don't be surprised to see Insidious go higher than expected, and maybe high enough to take out TLJ...I mean it already has a $2M head start...

So, we gonna start agreeing to some of the reasons I listed that a bad horror movie might be jumping to the #2 spot:)?...

[WrathOfHan]

If Deadline's numbers significantly change, it'll be for Insidious. Horror movies shift A LOT more than any other genre. TLJ and Jumanji should be pretty close to their estimates IMO

Edited January 5, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[cannastop]

The Shape of Water was pretty good. Not sure how it would rank in all of the other 2017 movies I've seen.

[redfirebird2008]

6 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Come on dude, we both didn't care for the film but it's 1:30 on the west coast right now.  Let's not try to bury TLJ before at least RTH's Friday number comes in.

 

Who said I'm burying it? The film is going over $600m regardless. That's a huge number. But it's not getting to $650m and probably not $640m at this rate. Question becomes whether it can beat Avengers at $623m. I think it will be pretty close.

[That One Girl]

Just now, cannastop said:

Not sure how it would rank in all of the other 2017 movies I've seen.

 

Haven't you seen like 3 movies this year?

[cannastop]

Just now, That One Guy said:

 

Haven't you seen like 3 movies this year?

Try 10. And most of them were good.

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Who said I'm burying it? The film is going over $600m regardless. That's a huge number. But it's not getting to $650m and probably not $640m at this rate. Question becomes whether it can beat Avengers at $623m. I think it will be pretty close.

 

One thing ive asked myself in the last few weeks is, whether or not TA1's big 3D share makes the adjusted numbers for it better than they actually are in comparison with TLJ. Otoh, TLJ benefites from more premium formats i believe. Maybe that balances it out?

[Valonqar]

11 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

 

Are we really doing this after last week?  

What, they improved? OK then. I'm thinking that with cyclone bomb things will be a bit more unpredictable so I'm just waiting for Asgard's later numbers that are always more accurate.

Edited January 5, 2018 by Valonqar

[el sid]

3 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

That's the Friday projection. The other numbers are weekend projections.

Mmh, yes, I know .

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, Brainbug said:

 

One thing ive asked myself in the last few weeks is, whether or not TA1's big 3D share makes the adjusted numbers for it better than they actually are in comparison with TLJ. Otoh, TLJ benefites from more premium formats i believe. Maybe that balances it out?

 

It would be interesting to see. There were 275 IMAX screens for Avengers and a very small number of theater brand PLF, maybe 200 or less. Now there are over 400 IMAX screens, around 650 theater PLF screens, and over 200 D-BOX auditoriums.

 

Avengers had a big advantage on 3D though, something like 50% versus 30% for Last Jedi. Overall I would think the two things balance out pretty well. But there has been general price inflation over the last 5+ years for regular 2D tickets and so forth.

 

 

[DAJK]

I thought Insidious would absolutely bomb at my theatre (our equivalent of 7-8M weekend) considering there was little buzz and the third one did something like our equivalent of 13M. But so far it seems to be playing pretty similar to Lights Out a few years ago, which had a 18/45 run here

[Rebeccas]

I love how we're still doing the 'wait and see' approach with TLJ but every weekend since OW it's just gone down lol.