Weekend Thread - Insidious 29.6M, Jumanji 37.2M, TLJ 23.7M, TGS 13.8M, PP3 10.3

[IronJimbo]

9 minutes ago, narniadis said:

And here we normally give you props for OVER predicting.... heres to hoping just a bit that you are wrong about Jedi lol

Don't worry, it's possible he just has his calender upside down.

[junkshop36]

Hopefully everything sees a bit of rebound next weekend since the storm is going to depress things, at least a little, this weekend. 

[redfirebird2008]

3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Not the overall theater count - the revenue and contract terms...Disney didn't put the "tough terms" onto theaters for Rogue One (at least not as tough as TLJ's)...

 

I think you mean screen count. Rogue’s theater count was 4,157 on all 4 weeks. 

[The Futurist]

Avatar Dos is gonna make 20 times more than The Last Jedi in China.

Hail The Canadian !

 

[IronJimbo]

Just now, The Futurist said:

Avatar Dos is gonna make 20 times more than The Last Jedi in China.

Hail The Canadian !

 

Careful what you wish for, at this rate 20x tlj might be peanuts.

[That One Girl]

I am watching Hard to be a God.  I will never call another film pretentious.

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, redfirebird2008 said:

 

I think you mean screen count. Rogue’s theater count was 4,157 on all 4 weeks. 

No, I'm talking about the 65% revenue and no dropped showing requirements (and the other terms) that came with booking TLJ.  Rogue One's couldn't have been that bad, b/c they didn't become huge news stories on Deadline.  So, having lived under that type of contract (and it now not paying off, and probably hasn't since Xmas and Jumanji's rise), a lot of theaters may be sick of TLJ...

 

So, I think many more theaters will be ready to dump TLJ vs how many were ready to dump Rogue One.  The fact TLJ may actually fall behind RO this weekend for weekend earnings and probably every day next week will make it compare even less favorably for them.

[Elessar]

2 hours ago, FantasticBeasts said:

When I first joined BOT, Deadline was a joke. But I have to admit that they have improved  A LOT. They were even more acurrate than Rth a few times. 

With that into account though, it is terribly early to believe that anyone can have a good prediction for the day, let alone the weekend.

People are unfair towards Deadline, for the most part. They report numbers much earlier than Rth, OF COURSE they tend to be less accurate because they have less data to work with. I remember Rth doing early estimates a few times and guess what, he had to revise them just as well. Predicting the future is hard...

[mikee11]

6 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

I am watching Hard to be a God.  I will never call another film pretentious.

the movie is the same for the entire 7 hours

[redfirebird2008]

8 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

No, I'm talking about the 65% revenue and no dropped showing requirements (and the other terms) that came with booking TLJ.  Rogue One's couldn't have been that bad, b/c they didn't become huge news stories on Deadline.  So, having lived under that type of contract (and it now not paying off, and probably hasn't since Xmas and Jumanji's rise), a lot of theaters may be sick of TLJ...

 

So, I think many more theaters will be ready to dump TLJ vs how many were ready to dump Rogue One.  The fact TLJ may actually fall behind RO this weekend for weekend earnings and probably every day next week will make it compare even less favorably for them.

 

Call your shot then. Rogue’s theater count dropped 24%. What are you expecting for TLJ?

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Call your shot then. Rogue’s theater count dropped 24%. What are you expecting for TLJ?

Worse...I mean not 40% or anything, but a higher percent than 24...and a more rapid decline as the weeks go...

[WrathOfHan]

I can legit see January 26's top ten going like this:

 

Maze Runner: 20M

The Post: 15M

Jumanji: 10M

Paddington: 6.5M

The Shape of Water: 4.5M

12 Strong: 4M

The Commuter: 3.5M

Darkest Hour: 3.3M

Phantom Thread: 3M

Star Wars: 2.5M

 

Just fucking awful for theaters everywhere. The following weekend won't be better because Winchester could be the only movie over 10M  

Edited January 6, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[AJG]

I really can’t wait until a movie I actually care about gets released so I can use this place more. I feel so out of the loop

[Lordmandeep]

TLJ Under TA would mean a harsher drop then Aotc from Tpm.

[AndyChrono]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

No, I'm talking about the 65% revenue and no dropped showing requirements (and the other terms) that came with booking TLJ.  Rogue One's couldn't have been that bad, b/c they didn't become huge news stories on Deadline.  So, having lived under that type of contract (and it now not paying off, and probably hasn't since Xmas and Jumanji's rise), a lot of theaters may be sick of TLJ...

 

So, I think many more theaters will be ready to dump TLJ vs how many were ready to dump Rogue One.  The fact TLJ may actually fall behind RO this weekend for weekend earnings and probably every day next week will make it compare even less favorably for them.

My local AMC's here in SoCal have already dropped TLJ from most of their Dolby screens in favor of Jumanji and are just playing TLJ in the IMAX screen since that's technically the "largest screen". However, from checking the available seats over the last few weeks, it appears that the Dolby showings were generally selling much much better than the IMAX showings. The IMAX showings are selling so poorly at this point, that they are pretty much private screenings with like 10 tickets sold in a 400-500 seat theater. The theaters are basically just putting TLJ in their IMAX screen until the 4 week window is up and then it probably gets dumped onto the smallest screen(s) at the multiplexes with smaller theaters dropping it entirely.

[Noctis]

https://twitter.com/ChinaBoxOffice/status/949298772919685121

 

THE LAST JEDI earned just ¥62M ($9.5M) on opening day including midnights, well below both The Force Awakens (¥212M) and Rogue One (¥72M). Word of mouth is dismal and worse than the previous films and The Last Jedi could fail to reach even $40M total.

[boomboom234]

21 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

TLJ Under TA would mean a harsher drop then Aotc from Tpm.

Nothing to do with wom the comscore proves it

[redfirebird2008]

23 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

TLJ Under TA would mean a harsher drop then Aotc from Tpm.

 

It is already way beyond that point. AOTC had a second release in IMAX that took its gross up to $310m. The original run was $302m, right at a 30% drop from TPM. TLJ would need around $656m for a 30% drop from TFA. 

[cannastop]

3 minutes ago, Noctis said:

https://twitter.com/ChinaBoxOffice/status/949298772919685121

 

THE LAST JEDI earned just ¥62M ($9.5M) on opening day including midnights, well below both The Force Awakens (¥212M) and Rogue One (¥72M). Word of mouth is dismal and worse than the previous films and The Last Jedi could fail to reach even $40M total.

Lots of people were saying that TLJ wasn't going to do well in China. This doesn't surprise me one bit.

[narniadis]

Yeah, the China gross isn't a huge surprise to anyone following the signs - it's been discussed for weeks already. The last thing I saw was that 50m was the top if it all went right, which we know for this film has yet to be the case lol.