BLACK PANTHER WEEKEND THREAD | Current Estimates - 202.4M 3-day / 242.6M 4-day | Record 40.167 Monday; more than TFA!

[NCsoft]

25 minutes ago, filmlover said:

If either The Shape of Water or Three Billboards win Best Picture, they will be the highest grossing winner since Argo.

The only alternative is Get Out, so that's confirmed pretty much.

[Krissykins]

Glad to see Black Panther out-open bores like Civil War and BATB. 

 

 

[Alexiswills12]

Most ahead of the weekend were seeing $90M-$120M with some believing it could edge higher, but not to these stratospheric totals. What’s fueling it? The movie is playing to the Marvel faithful, and also brought out the non-core audience. Says one international distribution veteran, “I think it’s so fresh and people are recognizing this, worldwide.”

http://deadline.com/2018/02/black-panther-fifty-shades-freed-monster-hunt-2-detective-chinatown-2-weekend-results-international-box-office-1202293876/

 

$ 1 billion world wide is definitely happening.

[That One Girl]

I've seen quite a bit of advertising for Game Night.  It has 1,007 national airings according to iSpot (compared to 940 for Annihilation and 405 for Every Day)

[babz06]

11 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

The next two weeks look dead, I don't think Game Night, which has zero marketing, or Red Sparrow, which looks and sounds bland, are even hitting 20m OW. Tomb Raider and Pacific Rim might not hit it either, and Ready Player One is gonna do bleh. Wrinkle In Time and Rampage are the only movies guaranteed to even make 70m total domestically until Infinity War.

1. Thank god for Black Panther to save the box office

2. Black Panther has room to do 550+

I do think Love, Simon could be a sleeper hit. BUt you are right about March looking bad throughout. 

[Taruseth]

6 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Having the biggest Sunday drop of the top 5 OWs  (the range from 11-18%) makes no sense since Monday is a holiday.

Okay:

TFA: -11.3% most schools were off for the following two weeks. As Thursday was Christmas Eve.

TLJ: -19.8% Some off the next day (no Idea how too explain this) Spill Over from Saturday

JW: -17.9% Highest Saturday of all time and Summer

Avengers: -18% Second Highest Saturday and no idea why it dropped just 0.1% more than JW. (Especially as Civil War and Iron Man dropped 30+% both)

(AoU: -11% this was mainly because of a weaker Saturday I think.)

 

So that really seems high.

 

And President's Day isn't as strong as Memorial Day for example (the drops are higher on both Sunday and Monday)

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I haven't seen even one TV spot for Game Night is the issue. No one knows its coming out. I forgot completely until your post. 

Also, what in the world is the audience for a 2 and a half hour hard R spy movie with no advertised action and meh reviews? The dudes on here who posts an update every time J Law leaves her house? 

Red Sparrow is only going to appeal to film buffs, and even they're not going to fully love it. Here's who the film is alienating:

 

The action crowd who thinks they're getting a violent male fantasy action flick (nope)

Seniors who think it'll be a classic espionage film (HAHAHA no)

JLaw's teenage Tumblr fanbase (like mother!, it's not a film for them)

 

That leaves everyone else with a hard R film they might be bored to tears by. WOM is going to be REALLY bad for those first two crowds.

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

I've seen quite a bit of advertising for Game Night.  It has 1,007 national airings according to iSpot (compared to 940 for Annihilation and 405 for Every Day)

That low? Yeah, Clay's right  12 Strong only had like 1,200 ads a week prior to release as well, so WB is just banking on those audiences for their respective genres to show up.

[grey ghost]

Any guesses for BP's Monday number? 

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Red Sparrow is only going to appeal to film buffs, and even they're not going to fully love it. Here's who the film is alienating:

 

The action crowd who thinks they're getting a violent male fantasy action flick (nope)

Seniors who think it'll be a classic espionage film (HAHAHA no)

JLaw's teenage Tumblr fanbase (like mother!, it's not a film for them)

 

That leaves everyone else with a hard R film they might be bored to tears by. WOM is going to be REALLY bad for those first two crowds.

That weekend thread is gonna be fun. Expecting lots of "I'm so worried about JLaw" concern trolling.

[redfirebird2008]

20 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Having the biggest Sunday drop of the top 5 OWs  (the range from 11-18%) makes no sense since Monday is a holiday.

 

Yeah, 23% drop seems extremely conservative to me. Deadpool stayed flat on this same Sunday two years ago. 10% drop for Black Panther would mean $200m weekend and I think this is very much in play. Would be awesome if it can stay flat like Deadpool. 

Edited February 18, 2018 by redfirebird2008

[Cmasterclay]

I think it's safe to say that we as Americans have made it past the whole J Law thing and come out the other side still okay. Now we just have to survive the Chris Pratt moment and we're on the way to greatness!

[WrathOfHan]

I'm pretty confident that Love, Simon will be March's only 100M film. A Wrinkle in Time and RPO will probably cap out around 80-90M (potentially less), and everything else is doing 50M or less.

[MattW]

3 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Any guesses for BP's Monday number? 

28-29

[John Marston]

Just now, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Yeah, 23% drop seems extremely conservative to me. Deadpool stayed flat on this same Sunday a year ago. 10% drop for Black Panther would mean $200m weekend and I think this is very much in play. Would be awesome if it can stay flat like Deadpool. 

 

 

Deadpool ol had Valentines Day on Sunday 

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, Cmasterclay said:

I think it's safe to say that we as Americans have made it past the whole J Law thing and come out the other side still okay. Now we just have to survive the Chris Pratt moment and we're on the way to greatness!

Chris Pratt needs to start doing some arthouse horror  

[XO21]

So we’re already dismissing any movie which isn’t a superhero one...good to know, I suppose we won’t complain the next time studios stop greenlighting movies like Red Sparrow.

[DMan7]

Just waiting for the announcement that WB has greenlighted that Static Shock movie.

[Eric the Minion]

Just now, XO21 said:

So we’re already dismissing any movie which isn’t a superhero one...good to know, I suppose we won’t complain the next time studios stop greenlighting movies like Red Sparrow.

We're not dismissing it (I'm pretty sure Han's looking forward to it), we're just saying the film won't be a hit. Simmer down.

[SteveJaros]

$192m DOM for Thurs/Friday - Sunday ... that's just mind-popping. 

Edited February 18, 2018 by SteveJaros