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Weekend Actuals (Page 80) | Black Panther 111.7M | Game Night 17M | Peter Rabbit 12.8M | Annihilation 11.1M | Fifty Shades Freed 7.1M | Jumanji 5.7M

By WrathOfHan, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Rthmessiah,

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The Panda Global Phenomenon

The Panda

Posted
Posted

Some trajectories for each movie

 

Black Panther

Needs 360m to pass Avatar, would require a 4.33x Multi off of this weekend. It’d need legs better than Spider-Man (for reference) but less than Wonder Woman (which its weekend drop, minus previews is better, not factoring in its a holiday)

 

It needs 307m to pass Avengers Adjusted.  That’d require a 3.85x Multi, also requires better than spider-man legs.

 

It needs a 223m and a 3.06x Multi off of this weekend to pass The Avengers, shouldn’t be difficult for it based off of this drop.

 

Game Night

It’ll need a 6x Multi off of this weekend to pass 100m, not likely.

 

I expect this to follow an Office Christmas Party trajectory.

 

Peter Rabbit

Needs 61.7m to pass Alvin and the Chipmunks 3.  That’d require a 5.9x Multi, which is a bit of a stretch but a good target for it.

 

Needs 28.7m to hit 100m.  Needs a 3.29x multi to make it there, which is quite likely at this point.

 

Annihilation

Needs 19m and a 2.7x Multi to pass Life, probably a decent target for it out of comps.

 

Fifty Shades Freed

Needs 11m to pass 100m.  Would require a 2.5x Multi off of this weekend.  Fifty Shades Darker did a 2.4x Multi after this weekend.  Will require Freed to start seeing one or two noticeably better holds.

 

The Greatest Showman

Needs 28m to pass Grease as largest, non-Disney, musical.  Would require a 9.2x Multi off of this weekend, which was previously possible but the movie’s been slowly losing steam.

 

Jumanji

Needs 25m to pass Wonder Woman for #3 DOM of 2017.  That’d require a 5.46x Multi off of this weekend, definitely looking like a strong possibility.

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SLAM! Summer Tentpole

SLAM!

Posted
Posted

So I have some observations about the weekend as a whole; this is one very interesting weekend.

 

First of all, that hold for Black Panther is phenomenal. I hope the success of the film changes the way some Hollywood producers think, because that is a great success! You don't see just any film earn over $100m in their second weekends, especially during the non-holiday timeframes.

 

I took the liberty of comparing Game Night's opening with the 2015 Vacation's opening, and for what it's worth, Game Night's OW is close to $2m more than Vacation (though this doesn't account for inflation). Game Night, with strong word-of-mouth that is to be expected for a critically acclaimed comedy, should at least leg itself over Vacation's unadjusted total when all is said and done.

 

Peter Rabbit held much better than I was expecting. I'm rooting for it to cross $100m, because I like seeing any movie cross $100m.

 

It's not all bad for Annihilation; it managed to reach over a $5,000 PTA in just over 2,000 theaters with minimal advertising. I am expecting word-of-mouth and legs to keep it profitable in the coming dilapidated March season.

 

I am expecting Fifty Shades Freed to lose at least a little leverage in the wake of the similarly provocative Red Sparrow, but I do not think Fifty Shades's loss of leverage will be able to prevent it from crossing- *grimace* - $100m.

 

Jumanji and Greatest Showman both have good weekend holds in their own right. Granted, anything they make at this stage is a cherry on top of impressive hauls.

 

15:17 to Paris is suffering from some sharp drops, but it definitely stands out as a more popular choice than Samson (rightfully). 15:17 to Paris crossed the amount of its production budget ($30), leading me to believe that Warner Bros. will be happy with what appears to be a modest hit.

 

Every Day crossed that $3m threshold, so Orion is likely happy about that; here's hoping it can surprise with its legs similarly to Before I Fall.

 

Early Man is continuing to have a depressing run, which is made more depressing by its PTA: $682. That's no good. Not in 2,500-ish theaters.

 

Three Billboards had the best hold out of the Oscar films- a hold less than 20%. My guess: Middle America is taking an interest in the film.

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Jake Gittes Global Phenomenon

Jake Gittes

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, The Mad Panda said:

Some trajectories for each movie

 

Black Panther

Needs 360m to pass Avatar, would require a 4.33x Multi off of this weekend. It’d need legs better than Spider-Man (for reference) but less than Wonder Woman (which its weekend drop, minus previews is better, not factoring in its a holiday)

 

It needs 307m to pass Avengers Adjusted.  That’d require a 3.85x Multi, also requires better than spider-man legs.

 

It needs a 223m and a 3.06x Multi off of this weekend to pass The Avengers, shouldn’t be difficult for it based off of this drop.

 

Game Night

It’ll need a 6x Multi off of this weekend to pass 100m, not likely.

 

I expect this to follow an Office Christmas Party trajectory.

 

Peter Rabbit

Needs 61.7m to pass Alvin and the Chipmunks 3.  That’d require a 5.9x Multi, which is a bit of a stretch but a good target for it.

 

Needs 28.7m to hit 100m.  Needs a 3.29x multi to make it there, which is quite likely at this point.

 

Annihilation

Needs 19m and a 2.7x Multi to pass Life, probably a decent target for it out of comps.

 

Fifty Shades Freed

Needs 11m to pass 100m.  Would require a 2.5x Multi off of this weekend.  Fifty Shades Darker did a 2.4x Multi after this weekend.  Will require Freed to start seeing one or two noticeably better holds.

 

The Greatest Showman

Needs 28m to pass Grease as largest, non-Disney, musical.  Would require a 9.2x Multi off of this weekend, which was previously possible but the movie’s been slowly losing steam.

 

Jumanji

Needs 25m to pass Wonder Woman for #3 DOM of 2017.  That’d require a 5.46x Multi off of this weekend, definitely looking like a strong possibility.

Massive props for determining those multipliers correctly. Been a bit of a pet peeve of mine over the years here. 

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MrGlass2 Summer Tentpole

MrGlass2

Posted
Posted (edited)
44 minutes ago, The Mad Panda said:

Black Panther

It needs a 223m and a 3.06x Multi off of this weekend to pass The Avengers, shouldn’t be difficult for it based off of this drop.

:ohmygod:

43 minutes ago, slambros said:

 

It's not all bad for Annihilation; it managed to reach over a $5,000 PTA in just over 2,000 theaters with minimal advertising. I am expecting word-of-mouth and legs to keep it profitable in the coming dilapidated March season.

 

:ohmygod::ohmygod::ohmygod:

Edited by MrGlass2
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CaptainJackSparrow Global Phenomenon

CaptainJackSparrow

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Okay. Looks like this is my movie schedule this week.

Tuesday: Annihilation

Friday: Game Night

Saturday: Peter Rabbit?

Peter Rabbit is actually quite good.

also, how much do we think Rampage will gross? I’m not sure about that one.

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