INFINITY WAR WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals ~ 257.698M OW (RECORD) | 106.334M Friday, 82.131M Saturday (RECORD), 69.231M Sunday (RECORD) | 640.9M Worldwide Opening (RECORD) | Read the Rules on the First Post | SALE NOW LIVE

[The Mad Titan]

8 minutes ago, townzy89 said:

Ok, I am in Aus so maybe it was different WOM here due to the cultural differences

 

BP will almost get 3.5x so why is 3x not possible to AIW? The WOM is still very positive.

Competition, mainly. The biggest film BP had to deal with during it's first 2 months was A Wrinkle In Time. Within 1 month, Infinity War will have Deadpool 2 and Solo to deal with. They will have bigger opening weekends (Both in the $120-$150 million range) than A Wrinkle In Time has made total. 

[townzy89]

18 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

 

You're seriously not trying to pass off website user ratings as a legitimate tool to assess a film's quality or box office performance, are you? We all know the reason for that RT difference is the same reason as why IMDB shows AIW as having a user rating of 9.0 and BP having a user rating of 7.7. I am one of the least CBM-friendly people on this site and even I thought BP was a better movie than AIW. Try a little harder next time, please.

Nope just highlighting using say AOU multi as a reference for AIW is as pointless as those stats, thanks for acknowledging.

[NoLegMan]

1 minute ago, The Mad Titan said:

Competition, mainly. The biggest film BP had to deal with during it's first 2 months was A Wrinkle In Time. Within 1 month, Infinity War will have Deadpool 2 and Solo to deal with. They will have bigger opening weekends (Both in the $120-$150 million range) than A Wrinkle In Time has made total. 

I have a feeling DP won't be that good, may hurt it, that is mostly my view though.

[townzy89]

3 minutes ago, The Mad Titan said:

Competition, mainly. The biggest film BP had to deal with during it's first 2 months was A Wrinkle In Time. Within 1 month, Infinity War will have Deadpool 2 and Solo to deal with. They will have bigger opening weekends (Both in the $120-$150 million range) than A Wrinkle In Time has made total. 

Summer.

 

The BO expands to accommodate, hence why majority of films release in Summer. They have only just caught on you can actually make decent cash outside of summer as well.

 

AIW will be 600m+ by the time DP2 opens anyway

[The Panda]

22 minutes ago, ThiagoMaia said:

I think people won't give this much credit, and even I find it a little hard to believe, but I put all the top 10 openings on a spreadsheet, + GotG2 and found a strong correlation between Saturday to Sunday drop, and the multiplier. I removed AoU, considering it an outlier (which is reasonable, considering it dropped from true friday to saturday, and had a specially good saturday to sunday drop, which is usually attributed to the fight) and used 700 as BP's total, and I found a 95% correlation between Sunday/Saturday and the multiplier. Other strong correlations were Sunday/Friday (63%), and OW/Saturday (64%), all of these had projections very close to each other, from 2.98 to 3.20 multipliers, but the Sunday/Saturday had the best coefficient of determination. The projection based on A:IW using the Sunday/Saturday ratio, is 3.2 multiplier, for a total of U$ 824.52M. That has a coefficient of determination of 94% and a residual sum of squares of 0.015. Using only the MCU may openers, I get 3.13, with a total of U$ 809.01M. I hope my calculations are right, and IW keeps up the pattern, would love it to beat Avatar.

Kudos for doing that but only using 10 data points is going to result in heavily flawed results.  To get a better picture you’d probably want to use all 100m+ openings then throw in dummy variables for inflated Sunday, deflated Sunday, inflated sat, deflated sat and inflated fri and deflated fri so you don’t have to throw out points like AoU or BP.

 

You had an interesting approach though.  I may actually try and put in the data myself later today to see if I get anything.

 

I don’t think you can say anything significant though from only 10 data points.

[GraceRandolph]

2 minutes ago, NoLegMan said:

I have a feeling DP won't be that good, may hurt it, that is mostly my view though.

Doesn’t matter. It will still steal at least 200M domestically from IW. The real  IW gross without DP will be whatever it makes + 200M

[dxmatrixdt]

Friday - 106.3

Saturday - 82.1

Sunday - 69.2

(-71.1%)

Monday - 21

Tuesday - 23

Wednesday - 16

Thursday - 16, 333.7 total.

 

Weekend # 2

Friday - 32

Saturday - 50

Sunday - 37

119m weekend, 453 total.

(-70.3%) 

Monday - 11

Tuesday - 13

Wednesday - 9

Thursday - 9, 495 total.

 

Weekend #3

Friday - 18

Saturday - 31

Sunday - 22

71m weekend, 566 total

(-72.7%)

Monday - 6

Tuesday - 7

Wednesday - 6

Thursday - 4, 589 total.

 

Week #4 - Deadpool 

-50% 36m weekend, 625 total.

11 weekdays, 636 total.

 

Week #5 - Solo, Memorial Day Weekend

- 33% 4-day weekend = 24 4-day weekend, 660 total.

 

*For reference, Avatar had 749.77 in its first run.

Edited April 30, 2018 by Thematrixfilm

[NoLegMan]

2 minutes ago, GraceRandolph said:

Doesn’t matter. It will still steal at least 200M domestically from IW. The real  IW gross without DP will be whatever it makes + 200M

I don't think it will honestly, IW has two weeks by its self. movies during the early summer and summer tend to expand. It's too early to know for sure.

[vc2002]

It's a shame we got this close to an unimagineable $70m Sunday. But still it beat the Sunday record by almost $9m.

 

 

Edited April 30, 2018 by vc2002

[DeeCee]

7 minutes ago, GraceRandolph said:

Doesn’t matter. It will still steal at least 200M domestically from IW. The real  IW gross without DP will be whatever it makes + 200M

Yeah, no.  It doesn't work like that.

[BugsBunny]

5 minutes ago, GraceRandolph said:

Doesn’t matter. It will still steal at least 200M domestically from IW. The real  IW gross without DP will be whatever it makes + 200M

"At least" $200mm? Deadpool if it is very, very good and also very, very lucky could approach $400mm. You mean to say that literally HALF of the people who go to see Deadpool would have gone to see A:IW instead with 100% certainty? Even though many of them already saw it...

 

That's ridiculous.

[NoLegMan]

I can't see this movie dropping 70% the second weekend, that seems too aggressive. 

[ThiagoMaia]

9 minutes ago, Critically Acclaimed Panda said:

Kudos for doing that but only using 10 data points is going to result in heavily flawed results.  To get a better picture you’d probably want to use all 100m+ openings then throw in dummy variables for inflated Sunday, deflated Sunday, inflated sat, deflated sat and inflated fri and deflated fri so you don’t have to throw out points like AoU or BP.

 

You had an interesting approach though.  I may actually try and put in the data myself later today to see if I get anything.

 

I don’t think you can say anything significant though from only 10 data points.

Yeah, I figured as much, but couldn't quite remember the statistical tests I learned in college, and didn't have to the time to research more. The high correlation gave me hope, though. Still probably better than a gut feeling...

[bamajagala]

AIW is tearing up the evening shows in LA and NY.  I wouldn't doubt that it reaches 30m today, in fact I would lean that way.  Momentum should carry big time into weekend 2.  I'm betting a 45% drop for 141m (40+54+47) or more.  850-875 final domestic tally.  I'm not an MCU fan by any means and a big SW fan, but numbers are numbers and one shouldn't underestimate what this freight train is capable of.  

[townzy89]

8 minutes ago, GraceRandolph said:

Doesn’t matter. It will still steal at least 200M domestically from IW. The real  IW gross without DP will be whatever it makes + 200M

Wrong..

 

I have seen AIW twice. Probably won't see it again in Cinemas

 

Seeing DP2 opening day, if it wasn't coming out it would have had no bearing on me seeing AIW a third time or not

[RthDeadWov]

top playdates 29-Apr
all AIW

1-AMC Burbank
2-AMC Empire 25, New York City
(Combined with E-walk across the road ,#1 and in the stratosphere)
3-AMC Lincoln Square, New York City
4-Regal Irvine Spectrum
5-Regal Kaufman Astoria, Astoria NY
6-Regal Atlantic Station , Atlanta GA
7-Pac Arclight Hollywood
8-AMC Tyson Corner, Mclean VA
9-Regal Ontario Palace CA
(Combined with Ontario Mills #2)
10-AMC Orange 30
11-Regal LA Live Stadium
12-Regal Sheepshead Bay, Brooklyn NY
13-AMC Disney Springs, Orlando FL
14-Pac Glendale 
15-PAc Arclight Sherman Oaks
16-Regal New Roc City
17-AMc 34st , New York City
18-AMc Metreon , San Francisco
19-CPLX Scotiabank, Toronto CA
20-Regal Houston Marq Stadium

Top Canada
1-CPLX Scotiabank, Toronto CA,2-CPLX Banque Scotia Montreal, 3-CPLX Winston Churchill, Oakville ON, 4-CPLX Scotiabank Chinook Calgary AB< 5-CPLX Queensway Etobicoke ON

[The Mad Titan]

9 minutes ago, Thematrixfilm said:

Friday - 106.3

Saturday - 82.1

Sunday - 69.2

(-71.1%)

Monday - 21

Tuesday - 23

Wednesday - 16

Thursday - 16, 333.7 total.

 

Weekend # 2

Friday - 32

Saturday - 50

Sunday - 37

119m weekend, 453 total.

(-70.3%) 

Monday - 11

Tuesday - 13

Wednesday - 9

Thursday - 9, 495 total.

 

Weekend #3

Friday - 18

Saturday - 31

Sunday - 22

71m weekend, 566 total

(-72.7%)

Monday - 6

Tuesday - 7

Wednesday - 6

Thursday - 4, 589 total.

 

Week #4 - Deadpool 

-50% 36m weekend, 625 total.

11 weekdays, 636 total.

 

Week #5 - Solo, Memorial Day Weekend

- 33% 4-day weekend = 24 4-day weekend, 660 total.

Seems very plausible. For comparison, Black Panther was at $605 million at that point and TA1 was at $553 million. 

[Green245]

14 minutes ago, NoLegMan said:

I have a feeling DP won't be that good, may hurt it, that is mostly my view though.

I'm very worried about Solo. I hope I am wrong. I hope its good.

[dxmatrixdt]

if Infinity War has the same per theater average as Black Panther did for its second weekend (111.7 weekend), it would make 124.27 

Edited April 30, 2018 by Thematrixfilm

[SpiritComix]

[Off topic]

 

So, Today...

 

WORLDWIDE GROSSES

 

9	Black Panther	BV	$1,333.7	$688.4	51.6%	$645.3	48.4%	2018
10	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	BV	$1,332.4	$620.2	46.5%	$712.2	53.5%	2017