INFINITY WAR WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals ~ 257.698M OW (RECORD) | 106.334M Friday, 82.131M Saturday (RECORD), 69.231M Sunday (RECORD) | 640.9M Worldwide Opening (RECORD) | Read the Rules on the First Post | SALE NOW LIVE

[somebody85]

2 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

.69

Yep you guys got a double 69 out of this.

[TalismanRing]

24 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Suicide Squad and Fant4stic both dropped in the mid to high 60's as well.

 

Otoh, Ultron and Civil War had a 59% drop, which is borderline 60%.... and IW was probably more rushed out to than either of those two.

Look at the internal w/e numbers. 

 

It did $39m in previews.

It broke the All Time Friday

It smashed the All Time Saturday (even adjusted),

It smashed the All Time Sunday (even adjusted) 

It did better numbers than Avenger adjusted over FSS with a preview number twice as big. 

% wise it had a far higher Saturday jump than Avengers -  almost twice as high

Then off that had a lower Sunday drop. 

This is not acting like anything else in the MCU right now except Avengers on steroids.

 

Edited April 30, 2018 by TalismanRing

[LonePirate]

6 minutes ago, townzy89 said:

RT User Rating

AIW 93%

BP 79%

 

Guess we can all point to stats that favour our opinion...

 

You're seriously not trying to pass off website user ratings as a legitimate tool to assess a film's quality or box office performance, are you? We all know the reason for that RT difference is the same reason as why IMDB shows AIW as having a user rating of 9.0 and BP having a user rating of 7.7. I am one of the least CBM-friendly people on this site and even I thought BP was a better movie than AIW. Try a little harder next time, please.

[Ozymandias]

17 minutes ago, YLF said:

Black Panther had the most random people praising the movie. Hillary Clinton, Elizabeth Warren, etc. I saw this older white woman that watched the movie from my gym(she's very liberal and keeps up with politics)  at one of the many showings I went to for black panther. I doubt she will be seeing Infinity War.

 

It had legs because it brought in so many different demographics age/race/gender wise. Even BP's opening weekend had an almost even gender split. IW had a large gap between male and female. 

She was even caught on a hot mic calling BP "one hell of a super predator at the box-office" 

[GraceRandolph]

This will do 700 million DOM. If it doesn’t I’ll force myself to re-watch ever single Star Wars movie until I trick my brain to enjoy them - so that I can switch fandoms. 

[ZeeSoh]

30 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

Think or want? Those are very different things. 

 

Also, WTF @ that logo. In the one before the Avengers: Infinity War Val and Oyoke are CLEARLY SEEN.  Why did you take them out  

 

 

 

That logo which was posted is not the new one. That is from 2016 which debuted with Guardians 2 or Spiderman hence the absence of any Black Panther characters. 

[Belle]

1 hour ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

My bet is that the depressed weekdays mean an extraordinary new record setting 2nd weekend.

Like above Force Awakens? It would have to drop at at least 42% which I can't see happening. I can see it beating Avengers 2nd weekend though. 

[MCKillswitch123]

1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

Look at the internal w/e numbers. 

 

It did $39m in previews.

It broke the All Time Friday

It smashed the All Time Saturday (even adjusted),

It smashed the All Time Sunday (even adulterated) 

It did better numbers than Avenger adjusted over FSS with a preview number twice as big. 

% wise it had a far higher Saturday jump than Avengers -  almost twice as high

Then off that had a lower Sunday drop. 

This is not acting like anything else in the MCU right now except Avengers on steroids.

And I recognize all of that, and am fucking amazed and mindblown. However, it's still a big franchise superhero movie and it broke the OW record by just under 10M. I'm not saying it'll have a Deathly Hallows drop - I'm honestly not thinking anything worse than 65% right now; not with the epic momentum it seems to be having with the GA - but I'm not convinced it's going sub-60% either. If it happens, HOLY SHIT, but until then....

[The Panda]

Second Weekend drops for 100m+ Openers

 

S2: 33.2%**

SM: 37.8%*

TFA: 39.8%** 

TJB: 40.4%*

WW: 43.3%

BP: 44.7%

AIW: 46%*

FD: 46%*

HP:GOF: 46.7%**

TS3: 46.2%*

BATB: 48.3%

JW: 49%

ROTS: 49.1%**

THG:MJ2: 49.3%**

TA: 50.3%

SLOP: 51.3%*

IT: 51.3%

TDK: 52.5%

THG:CF: 53.1%**

THG:MJ1: 53.3%**

T:R: 53.5%

DMC: 54%*

IJ:KOTCS: 55.3%

GOTG2: 55.5%

S3: 56.4%*

DP: 57.4%

M: 57.4%*

IM3: 58.4%

RO: 58.7%**

AOU: 59.4%

IM2: 59.4%

CW: 59.5%

F7: 59.5%

ROTF: 61.2%**

TDKR: 61.4%

AWE: 61.5%

SM3: 61.5%

THG: 61.6%

SMH: 62.2%

TF:AOE: 63%**

MOS: 64.6%

X:TLS: 66.9%

SS: 67.4%

TLJ: 67.5%

BvS: 69.1%

TS:BD2: 69.1%**

TS:BD1: 69.8%**

TS:NM: 70%**

DH2: 72%

 

**Indicates second weekend was a holiday, so a poor comparison

*Indicates Family/Animated, or much older, film so poor comparison

 

I think mid-low 50% drop bodes very well for IW.  Could give BP a run for its money

 

A high 50% drop could go either way with legs.  But it’d still likely secure 600m DOM

 

A low 60% drop is a sign of CW kind of legs, but it could recover from there.  600m in doubt.

 

A high 60% (or more) bodes poorly for legs, definitely won’t hit 600m

 

I think given the comparisons it’s pretty unlikely it drops under 50%.  Id also say a high 60% drop is rather unlikely given the fact it was fairly backloaded with its IM.

 

Id expect the second weekend drop to be between 55%-65%. 

Edited April 30, 2018 by Critically Acclaimed Panda

[Sam]

7 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Look at the internal w/e numbers. 

 

It did $39m in previews.

It broke the All Time Friday

It smashed the All Time Saturday (even adjusted),

It smashed the All Time Sunday (even adjusted) 

It did better numbers than Avenger adjusted over FSS with a preview number twice as big. 

% wise it had a far higher Saturday jump than Avengers -  almost twice as high

Then off that had a lower Sunday drop. 

This is not acting like anything else in the MCU right now except Avengers on steroids.

 

Fuck it. You convinced me.

 

30M Monday. Final prediction.

 

Don’t @ me

[The Futurist]

47 minutes ago, KJsooner said:

I think it falls 60%. Dont most superhero movies drop around 60%?

That s the One Million dollar question, isn't it ?

 

Does Infinity War belong to the "most superhero movies" category ?

Edited April 30, 2018 by The Futurist

[fabiopazzo2]

 

[aabattery]

2 minutes ago, Sam said:

Fuck it. You convinced me.

 

30M Monday. Final prediction.

 

Don’t @ me

 

@Sam

 

[somebody85]

5 hours ago, MJL said:

 

Shots fired.

[LonePirate]

5 minutes ago, ThiagoMaia said:

I think people won't give this much credit, and even I find it a little hard to believe, but I put all the top 10 openings on a spreadsheet, + GotG2 and found a strong correlation between Saturday to Sunday drop, and the multiplier. I removed AoU, considering it an outlier (which is reasonable, considering it dropped from true friday to saturday, and had a specially good saturday to sunday drop, which is usually attributed to the fight) and used 700 as BP's total, and I found a 95% correlation between Sunday/Saturday and the multiplier. Other strong correlations were Sunday/Friday (63%), and OW/Saturday (64%), all of these had projections very close to each other, from 2.98 to 3.20 multipliers, but the Sunday/Saturday had the best coefficient of determination. The projection based on A:IW using the Sunday/Saturday ratio, is 3.2 multiplier, for a total of U$ 824.52M. That has a coefficient of determination of 94% and a residual sum of squares of 0.015. Using only the MCU may openers, I get 3.13, with a total of U$ 809.01M. I hope my calculations are right, and IW keeps up the pattern, would love it to beat Avatar.

Here is a post I can appreciate. Effort was put forth to collect some numbers and crunch them to derive a result to frame an opinion. The absolute best thing working in AIW's favor is the complete lack of competition for the next two weekends. It will be able to maintain a very high percentage of its screens in its third weekend and it will be the #1 alternative for moviegoers confronting Deadpool sellouts during its fourth weekend. It won't lose a huge chunk of theaters until Solo arrives and theaters are still obligated to run Deadpool for another week.

 

I may think the movie is mediocre and wildly overrated on these forums; but there is nothing standing in its way from a likely final gross of at least $750-800M, if not more. I don't think it will come close to $900M; but barring some front loaded behavior which so far has been unnoticeable, a 3x multiplier seems to be in the bag.

[NoLegMan]

I was just watching the original crossover film The Indian in the Cupboard.

[townzy89]

18 minutes ago, PDC1987 said:

Umm yes, it did. Literally. That's the only way a film manages to fly past a 3x multi after opening as big as $202 million.

Ok, I am in Aus so maybe it was different WOM here due to the cultural differences

 

BP will almost get 3.5x so why is 3x not possible to AIW? The WOM is still very positive.

[fabiopazzo2]

Just now, townzy89 said:

Ok, I am in Aus so maybe it was different WOM here due to the cultural differences

 

BP will almost get 3.5x so why is 3x not possible to AIW? The WOM is still very positive.

The wom is great 

 

[Sam]

5 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

And I recognize all of that, and am fucking amazed and mindblown. However, it's still a big franchise superhero movie and it broke the OW record by just under 10M. I'm not saying it'll have a Deathly Hallows drop - I'm honestly not thinking anything worse than 65% right now; not with the epic momentum it seems to be having with the GA - but I'm not convinced it's going sub-60% either. If it happens, HOLY SHIT, but until then....

I think it’ll easily go sub-60%. Even Ultron and Civil War managed, however narrowly. Homecoming has the worst 2nd weekend drop and that’s partially cause it’s in summer, and it’s still 62%

 

The nature of April weekdays will push business to weekend.

 

I can’t see sub-50% yet but also nothing past 60% either.

[WrathOfHan]

9 minutes ago, Sam said:

Fuck it. You convinced me.

 

30M Monday. Final prediction.

 

Don’t @ me

Prayer circle?