INFINITY WAR WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals ~ 257.698M OW (RECORD) | 106.334M Friday, 82.131M Saturday (RECORD), 69.231M Sunday (RECORD) | 640.9M Worldwide Opening (RECORD) | Read the Rules on the First Post | SALE NOW LIVE

[KJsooner]

I think it falls 60%. Dont most superhero movies drop around 60%?

[townzy89]

11 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Is anyone saying it's going to fall off a cliff?  

Just it missing 600m talk. 2.34x multi is falling off a cliff to me

 

I think 3x multi should be the over under. 

 

Missing BP ~700m would be a massive disappointment. It opened larger and I feel has better WOM

[Cap]

12 minutes ago, a2k said:

 

How many folks think 2.95x to beat Avatar is possible?

Think or want? Those are very different things. 

 

Also, WTF @ that logo. In the one before the Avengers: Infinity War Val and Oyoke are CLEARLY SEEN.  Why did you take them out  

 

ETA:

 

Some handy drops from BOM:

 

TFA 39.5

Wondy 43.3
BP 44.7
TA 50.5

HGMJP1 - 53.3

CACW - 59.5
AOU 59.7
HPDHP1 - 60.7

TLJ - 67.5

TWDBP1 - 69.1

BVS - 69.1

 

 

Edited April 30, 2018 by captainwondyful

[fabiopazzo2]

3 minutes ago, townzy89 said:

Just it missing 600m talk. 2.34x multi is falling off a cliff to me

 

I think 3x multi should be the over under. 

 

Missing BP ~700m would be a massive disappointment. It opened larger and I feel has better WOM

IW= A

BP= A+ 

 

 

 

[Mojoguy]

The only recent superhero movies that collapsed in the 2nd weekend is... BvS?

[grey ghost]

Movies that stick with you afterwards: The Sixth Sense and Inception.

 

1.2 billion domestic, confirmed.

[Chewy]

4 minutes ago, townzy89 said:

Just it missing 600m talk. 2.34x multi is falling off a cliff to me

 

I think 3x multi should be the over under. 

 

Missing BP ~700m would be a massive disappointment. It opened larger and I feel has better WOM

 

Better WOM than Panther?!

 

O/U 3x multi?!?!?!?

 

Yall are losing it

[fabiopazzo2]

5 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

The only recent superhero movies that collapsed in the 2nd weekend is... BvS?

SM Homecoming 

 

-62% 

Edited April 30, 2018 by fabiopazzo2

[Mojoguy]

SM Homecoming

Late legs made up for that 2nd weekend drop.

[MCKillswitch123]

9 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

The only recent superhero movies that collapsed in the 2nd weekend is... BvS?

Suicide Squad and Fant4stic both dropped in the mid to high 60's as well.

 

Otoh, Ultron and Civil War had a 59% drop, which is borderline 60%.... and IW was probably more rushed out to than either of those two.

Edited April 30, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[sfran43]

 

[YLF]

9 minutes ago, Chewy said:

 

Better WOM than Panther?!

 

O/U 3x multi?!?!?!?

 

Yall are losing it

Black Panther had the most random people praising the movie. Hillary Clinton, Elizabeth Warren, etc. I saw this older white woman that watched the movie from my gym(she's very liberal and keeps up with politics)  at one of the many showings I went to for black panther. I doubt she will be seeing Infinity War.

 

It had legs because it brought in so many different demographics age/race/gender wise. Even BP's opening weekend had an almost even gender split. IW had a large gap between male and female. 

Edited April 30, 2018 by YLF

[baumer]

3 hours ago, townzy89 said:

Just it missing 600m talk. 2.34x multi is falling off a cliff to me

 

I think 3x multi should be the over under. 

 

Missing BP ~700m would be a massive disappointment. It opened larger and I feel has better WOM

 

I initially had a 2.4X.  I think the over under should be 2.5.  But we'll see.

[a2k]

11 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

Think or want? Those are very different things. 

 

Also, WTF @ that logo. In the one before the Avengers: Infinity War Val and Oyoke are CLEARLY SEEN.  Why did you take them out  

 

 

sorry, didn't get you. i didn't/can't take down any logos.

[townzy89]

5 minutes ago, Chewy said:

 

Better WOM than Panther?!

 

O/U 3x multi?!?!?!?

 

Yall are losing it

I said I feel it has... therefor IMO

 

Panther may have been received slightly better, but it didn't have people raving "you have to see it to believe it" type of WOM.

 

Panther was, "yeah it was really good, it is worth watching"

 

RT User Rating

AIW 93%

BP 79%

 

Guess we can all point to stats that favour our opinion...

[Chewy]

Just now, townzy89 said:

Panther may have been received slightly better, but it didn't have people raving "you have to see it to believe it" type of WOM.

 

It most certainly did. Different people raving that, but all the same

[PDC1987]

6 minutes ago, townzy89 said:

I said I feel it has... therefor IMO

 

Panther may have been received slightly better, but it didn't have people raving "you have to see it to believe it" type of WOM.

 

Panther was, "yeah it was really good, it is worth watching"

 

RT User Rating

AIW 93%

BP 79%

 

Guess we can all point to stats that favour our opinion...

Umm yes, it did. Literally. That's the only way a film manages to fly past a 3x multi after opening as big as $202 million.

[Cap]

10 minutes ago, a2k said:

sorry, didn't get you. i didn't/can't take down any logos.

Sorry. Was referring to Walt Disney’s Post. 

[Sam]

21 minutes ago, Chewy said:

 

Better WOM than Panther?!

 

O/U 3x multi?!?!?!?

 

Yall are losing it

Saving this post for the later tea. 

 

(I agree)

[ThiagoMaia]

I think people won't give this much credit, and even I find it a little hard to believe, but I put all the top 10 openings on a spreadsheet, + GotG2 and found a strong correlation between Saturday to Sunday drop, and the multiplier. I removed AoU, considering it an outlier (which is reasonable, considering it dropped from true friday to saturday, and had a specially good saturday to sunday drop, which is usually attributed to the fight) and used 700 as BP's total, and I found a 95% correlation between Sunday/Saturday and the multiplier. Other strong correlations were Sunday/Friday (63%), and OW/Saturday (64%), all of these had projections very close to each other, from 2.98 to 3.20 multipliers, but the Sunday/Saturday had the best coefficient of determination. The projection based on A:IW using the Sunday/Saturday ratio, is 3.2 multiplier, for a total of U$ 824.52M. That has a coefficient of determination of 94% and a residual sum of squares of 0.015. Using only the MCU may openers, I get 3.13, with a total of U$ 809.01M. I hope my calculations are right, and IW keeps up the pattern, would love it to beat Avatar.