INFINITY WAR WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals ~ 257.698M OW (RECORD) | 106.334M Friday, 82.131M Saturday (RECORD), 69.231M Sunday (RECORD) | 640.9M Worldwide Opening (RECORD) | Read the Rules on the First Post | SALE NOW LIVE

[baumer]

If you guys are trying to paint me out as someone who doesn't want it to get the record, you are wrong.  I loved the film but my like or dislike of it has nothing to do with it.  I'm using historical data and some logic.  I still think  it tops out at 235-240.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Sliver Legion said:

Okay, new prediction for the weekend. IW is below TFA’s OW — but the MCU movies combined are above it 

 

Naaaa.

[Rman823]

4 minutes ago, baumer said:

If you guys are trying to paint me out as someone who doesn't want it to get the record, you are wrong.  I loved the film but my like or dislike of it has nothing to do with it.  I'm using historical data and some logic.  I still think  it tops out at 235-240.

Exactly.There's a difference between wanting the film to fail and keeping realistic expectations. 

[eXtacy]

When you spend half an hour writing up a post but no one comments or likes. 

[MikeQ]

A $105M (rth) or $103M (Deadline) Friday for Infinity War would give it the best opening True Friday of all-time, with a $64-66M True Friday. Rth's previously mentioned $102M would put it just a smidgeon below Jurassic World. No matter how you slice it, terrific numbers for Infinity War after already burning $39M in demand in previews.

 

Best Opening True Fridays (i.e. Opening Friday sans Thursday Previews)

 

1. Avengers: Infinity War — 64-66.0 million (?) 
2. Jurassic World — 63.5 million
3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens — 62.1 million
4. Marvel's The Avengers — 62.1 million
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi — 59.7 million 
6. Avengers: Age of Ultron — 56.8 million
7. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice — 53.9 million
8. Iron Man 3 — 53.3 million
9. Furious 7 — 51.6 million
10. Black Panther — 50.7 million 

 

(Please correct me if I've gotten any of these wrong)

 

Peace,

Mike

[TalismanRing]

13 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

I think you are being sarcastic, and that's fine.  But you are correct.  I don't think there will be enough there to get the record. If you look at TFA, it did such huge business on Friday that it "only increased" by about 9% on Saturday.  

SW has more up front demand in pre-sales and in preview attendance.  Even Rogue One which did 29m/155m only had a 5.34 internal multiplier

 

24 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

The difference is these films didn't blow off 105 million in demand in the first day.

They didn't blow off $39m in previews either and yet AIW is having the biggest Friday.

 

A quick look at Fandango in NYC and there were still lots of sellouts and near sellouts past midnight including a few 2am and 3am shows.  Lots of sellouts means there more chance of spill over.

 

As Deadline pointed out in defense of their $175-200m prediction a month ago there's less school out the last week of April than the first of May which should also impact Saturday in addition to the Marvel Sat bump.

 

We'll see.

 

I don't think your posts are anything personal at all.  Just debating numbers and possibilities/probabilities. 

 

Anyway it all comes down to about $10m one way or the other - less than 5% when dealing with these huge numbers. 

 

Edited April 28, 2018 by TalismanRing

[Ledmonkey96]

Kind of surprised at those weekend drops for the rest of the top 10..... I mean i figured they'd be hit hard but looking at BP's opening weekend..... it's way worse. 3 movies likely to drop over 65% and everything but BP over 50%.

[aabattery]

2 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

A $105M (rth) or $103M (Deadline) Friday for Infinity War would give it the best opening True Friday of all-time, with a $64-66M True Friday. Rth's previously mentioned $102M would put it just a smidgeon below Jurassic World. No matter how you slice it, terrific numbers for Infinity War after already burning $39M in demand in previews.

 

Best Opening True Fridays (i.e. Opening Friday sans Thursday Previews)

 

1. Avengers: Infinity War — 64-66.0 million (?) 
2. Jurassic World — 63.5 million
3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens — 62.1 million
4. Marvel's The Avengers — 62.1 million
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi — 59.7 million 
6. Avengers: Age of Ultron — 56.8 million
7. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice — 53.9 million
8. Iron Man 3 — 53.3 million
9. Furious 7 — 51.6 million
10. Black Panther — 50.7 million 

 

(Please correct me if I've gotten any of these wrong)

 

Peace,

Mike

 

Deadline bumped it up to 104M now

[bladels]

3 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

A $105M (rth) or $103M (Deadline) Friday for Infinity War would give it the best opening True Friday of all-time, with a $64-66M True Friday. Rth's previously mentioned $102M would put it just a smidgeon below Jurassic World. No matter how you slice it, terrific numbers for Infinity War after already burning $39M in demand in previews.

 

Best Opening True Fridays (i.e. Opening Friday sans Thursday Previews)

 

1. Avengers: Infinity War — 64-66.0 million (?) 
2. Jurassic World — 63.5 million
3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens — 62.1 million
4. Marvel's The Avengers — 62.1 million
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi — 59.7 million 
6. Avengers: Age of Ultron — 56.8 million
7. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice — 53.9 million
8. Iron Man 3 — 53.3 million
9. Furious 7 — 51.6 million
10. Black Panther — 50.7 million 

 

(Please correct me if I've gotten any of these wrong)

 

Peace,

Mike

Deadline has it at $104M now

Split difference between Deadline and RTH means I win the contest

Edited April 28, 2018 by bladels

[MikeQ]

How is Black Panther still managing to be in the top 5 on it's 11th weekend?? It just keeps on chugging. If it doesn't hit $700M, it will be close. A terrific run either way - it hit a 3.38 multiplier on Thursday.

 

Peace,

Mike

[narniadis]

4 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

Kind of surprised at those weekend drops for the rest of the top 10..... I mean i figured they'd be hit hard but looking at BP's opening weekend..... it's way worse. 3 movies likely to drop over 65% and everything but BP over 50%.

Its not really surprising. Only one falling way harder than I thought it would is Rampage, but the family centric model goes right to cbms and the loss of premium screens combined just did it in. 

 

I mentioned earlier in the week that when Force Awakens opened, 3 films in the top 12(?) Fell more than 65% and the rest were meh but not terrible. This time its ouch across the board. 

[The Mad Titan]

10 minutes ago, aabattery said:

 

Deadline bumped it up to 104M now

They're saying $104 million and $237 million, meaning they're thinking it will take the Sat and Sun records! 

[DeeCee]

33 minutes ago, baumer said:

I don't think the OW record is in play.  With a huge Friday, expect the Saturday to be a little muted...not much but instead of jumping 20%, I think it'll be more like 12%.

I suppose that’s better then 11%. 

[KP1025]

1 hour ago, Chewy said:

 

Shame MovieMan's "black panther #2 for the weekend" club got locked and he got banned, won't get to see

Not quite the huge increase like he predicted but still a very good drop for Black Panther this weekend in the face of Infinity War.

[Ledmonkey96]

1 minute ago, KP1025 said:

Not quite the huge increase like he predicted but still a very good drop for Black Panther this weekend in the face of Infinity War.

I wouldn't be surprised if they are over predicting it's sunday drop again.... no chance it gets better than 5 though. That'd be just insane

[grey ghost]

19 minutes ago, eXtacy said:

When you spend half an hour writing up a post but no one comments or likes. 

Can you quote it?

 

I'll read it and like it.

[Ledmonkey96]

Just now, grey ghost said:

Can you quote it?

 

I'll read it and like it.

hehehehe it's on the last page.

[eXtacy]

This looks possible

 

39|66

74 (+12%)

61 (-18.5%)

 

240m OW

 

 

[ZeeSoh]

24 minutes ago, baumer said:

If you guys are trying to paint me out as someone who doesn't want it to get the record, you are wrong.  I loved the film but my like or dislike of it has nothing to do with it.  I'm using historical data and some logic.  I still think  it tops out at 235-240.

I am pretty sure I am a bigger SH and Marvel loony but even I had it max at 230 OW. I put that in my summer preseason. Only at the very end when the preview numbers came at 45 did I increase my predictions to 245. I never believed that this would break the OW record and I thought everyone in the 300m OW club were joking until I found out some were not. 

 

Those that set ridiculous expectations based on hope rather than data and logic deserve to be disappointed. Its just a pity when you see people letting themselves down and sad when they should be excited and happy for the 2nd biggest OW ever (even adjusted!)

[eXtacy]

4 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Can you quote it?

 

I'll read it and like it.

 

Its just the big post I did previous page. People have now liked it