INFINITY WAR WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals ~ 257.698M OW (RECORD) | 106.334M Friday, 82.131M Saturday (RECORD), 69.231M Sunday (RECORD) | 640.9M Worldwide Opening (RECORD) | Read the Rules on the First Post | SALE NOW LIVE

[REC]

Just now, Brainbug said:

I think Solos buzz is muted because even the people who are anticipating it know that its the most unneccessary SW movie ever. Im a big fat SW (and especially TLJ) fan, but i dont think i will see Solo in the theater. Anecdotical, i know, but i think many people feel that way.

I have no scientific data to back this up, but I suspect that if you polled teenagers and college kids which movie they plan to see, Solo or DP2, assuming they could only see one, I'd anticipate it would be a lopsided result in favor of DP2.  And I think that reality is a bad sign for the future earning capability of SW as a brand.

 

That's not to say it still can't do really well, that's not to say they can't keep it going or earn fans back.  They have every opportunity to do those things.  But put me squarely in the camp of DP2 overperforming and Solo underperforming.

[cheesypoofs]

Imagine if this drops under 50% next weekend. Not saying it will, but if it does, the internet would explode lol

[Mekanos]

Deadpool 2

OW: 140M

US: 350M

WW: 800M (thanks China)

 

Solo

OW: 120M

US: 325M

WW: 750M

[Legion Again]

6 hours ago, grey ghost said:

So in under 3 months Marvel Studios released two movies that made over 200 m OW and possibly 650 m DOM.

 

1 sub-studio. 3 month period. 500M combined opening (using BP’s full holiday frame  ). Near 1.5 Domestic gross. Over 3B WW.

[CJohn]

The next time I predict a 300M OW, you guys know exactly what is gonna happen. Until then, enjoy the ride and the puny numbers the not OW record breakers do.

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, REC said:

I have no scientific data to back this up, but I suspect that if you polled teenagers and college kids which movie they plan to see, Solo or DP2, assuming they could only see one, I'd anticipate it would be a lopsided result in favor of DP2.  And I think that reality is a bad sign for the future earning capability of SW as a brand.

 

That's not to say it still can't do really well, that's not to say they can't keep it going or earn fans back.  They have every opportunity to do those things.  But put me squarely in the camp of DP2 overperforming and Solo underperforming.

 

Such a polling would be not very surprising. Deadpool is one of the most popular Superhero characters of the last 15 years and hes becoming more beloved with every year.

[Warhorse]

13 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Not a chance.  I'm solidly in the camp that thinks Episode IX is going to be by far the lowest grossing of the new trilogy.  

 

Han is dead.  Luke is dead.  Carrie Fisher is dead.  Snoke and Phasma are dead (not that they really mattered).  Killing all of them off (essentially) cut a huge chunk out of the audience for the next movie, and quite frankly, it feels more like they are only beginning a story rather than ending one in the next 2 hours 20 minutes.  

 

What story is left to drive $250m in opening weekend business?  I don't think another Rey vs. Kylo back and forth really intrigues anyone to that point.  I don't think that many are showing up to see what happens with Finn and Rose or the adventures of Poe.  The Force Ghost of Luke isn't going to be in the film for more than a couple scenes.  

 

Unless they come up with something really, really intriguing I think it might struggle to open north of $175m and will finish in the $500m range.   

 

I think people are going to be far more interested by whatever the new trilogy is and a few more spin offs like Obi-Wan.  

I loved the other two phases of Star Wars, but this new phase I can not get into to save my life. But I am so anticipating an Obi Wan story. I refuse to believe he was stuck on Tatooine for the past 20 years until he meets up with Luke again. It would be even more gold if we got to see Liam Neeson back as QuiGon, showing Obi Wan how to master the afterlife.

[cheesypoofs]

2 minutes ago, REC said:

I have no scientific data to back this up, but I suspect that if you polled teenagers and college kids which movie they plan to see, Solo or DP2, assuming they could only see one, I'd anticipate it would be a lopsided result in favor of DP2.  And I think that reality is a bad sign for the future earning capability of SW as a brand.

 

That's not to say it still can't do really well, that's not to say they can't keep it going or earn fans back.  They have every opportunity to do those things.  But put me squarely in the camp of DP2 overperforming and Solo underperforming.

I agree in a sense that Deadpool will perform well and solo will underperform, but I still think both will do very well. I have both in the 300m range domestic. 335-340 dp2 and 375-380 solo

[Brainbug]

Either way, late May will be massive. Deadpool will open (at minimum) with 140M, i personally predict it to reach 170M+ @Nova. Solo is Solo but its also SW which means a 100M+ OW is locked, especially because it opens in the Memorial Day frame.

 

This summer really is similar to 2007's.

[Deep Wang]

19 minutes ago, baumer said:

 I think  it'll drop closer to 60% than 55. Still not convinced itll get north of a 2.5x.

For this movie, 2.5 would be out of this fucking world, and coincidentally, I think it is doable.

[fabiopazzo2]

2 minutes ago, CJohn said:

The next time I predict a 300M OW, you guys know exactly what is gonna happen. Until then, enjoy the ride and the puny numbers the not OW record breakers do.

 

[fabiopazzo2]

Just now, Deep Wang said:

For this movie, 2.5 would be out of this fucking world, and coincidentally, I think it is doable.

What is your prediction? 

[MCKillswitch123]

@Rthanos @EmpireCity I call on thee gentlemen from the clouds above to give us some Sunday updates.

[Brainbug]

Oh and someone definetly mentioned this before me i think, but IW outgrossing Justice League DOM in 3 Days and Worldwide in 4 Days is hilarious.

Edited April 29, 2018 by Brainbug

[CJohn]

1 minute ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

@Rthanos @EmpireCity I call on thee gentlemen from the clouds above to give us some Sunday updates.

We probably need to wait like 6 hours until they can give us a revised estimate.

[Deep Wang]

Just now, fabiopazzo2 said:

What is your prediction? 

 Before release, I was firmly in the 2.3ish camp.  But, I had thought about what it would take to break the OW record and said that if it manages that, it HAS to have some incredible WOM and spillover, so that will likely carry over the next couple of weeks.  Which could help stretch those legs from 2.3x to 2.5x maybe. 

[Nova]

5 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Either way, late May will be massive. Deadpool will open (at minimum) with 140M, i personally predict it to reach 170M+ @Nova. Solo is Solo but its also SW which means a 100M+ OW is locked, especially because it opens in the Memorial Day frame.

 

This summer really is similar to 2007's.

Deadpool 2 

[Mekanos]

The WOM is significantly better than AOU so I really can't see it missing 2.5x. 

[Warhorse]

1 hour ago, Fullbuster said:

OPENING WEEKEND: INFINITY WAR vs AGE OF ULTRON

 

Brazil: $18.8m vs $12.6m

France: $17.7m vs $12.5m

Mexico: $25.1m vs $18.7m

India: $18.6m vs $7.7m

UK: $42.2m vs $27.4m

South Korea: $39.2m vs $23.1m

Germany: $14.7m vs $9.4m

Thailand: $10m vs $4.2m

Philippines: $12.5m vs $7.4m

 

ENJOY THIS!

Is this due to anticipation, or the number of movie theaters/screens that are available today in these counties compared to a few years ago when AOU came out?

[Sam]

I’m thinking 57-60% drop for second weekend. 

 

Weekday drops will be pretty brutal considering schools are in sessions. But like any MCU before, it’ll recover over the weekend.