AVENGERS ENDGAME | 1939.4 M overseas ● 2797.8 M worldwide

[peludo]

1 hour ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Congratulations. You are a prophet.

I deduce that I am not saying anything new. My bad, but I have not been able to read everything... Too much info to process and not enough time to do it

[bladels]

So Endgame's already become the highest grossing film in VN with ~203B dong ($8.77M) in just 1 week

It stayed nearly flat through out holidays. Just incredible 😍

 

Edited May 3, 2019 by bladels

[BK007]

22 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

And Sun is a workday that will add very little

The Chinese work on Sundays?

 

Which is the biggest day in China? 

[XXR & Friends]

17 minutes ago, peludo said:

I deduce that I am not saying anything new. My bad, but I have not been able to read everything... Too much info to process and not enough time to do it

 

It’s a line from Infinity War.

 

Strange: Congratulations, you’re a prophet.

Thanos: I’m a survivor. 

[Rebeccas]

Just now, BK007 said:

The Chinese work on Sundays?

 

Which is the biggest day in China? 

Just these last two Sundays cause of weird holiday stuff.

[XXR & Friends]

1 minute ago, BK007 said:

The Chinese work on Sundays?

 

Which is the biggest day in China? 

 

Not usually, but they do this Sunday because they had a 4 day holiday. Typically, Saturday is the biggest day for a “normal” week.

[Caveman Sam]

 

42 minutes ago, Quigley said:

OS-Ch dropped from $83.4M on Wed (May Day) to $49.9M on Thu. That is a 40.2% drop.

• Infinity War dropped 50.0%
• Marvel's the Avengers dropped 51.3%
• Iron Man 3 dropped 54.6% (for this calculation, I have removed China which opened on May 1 and Russia which opened on May 2)

Dunno if it's a fluke, but seems amazing to me.

Worth noting: With May Day holiday falling on a Wednesday, a lot of people will book the Thursday and Friday off to make it a long weekend. A decent proportion of people will have been off work. Still a good sign for legs though.

[Godzilla]

So can it reach $3B? 

[Joyous Legion]

Appears that IW parlayed a 32M OS-C Thurs into a 148M FSS. Similar multi for Endgame would give 230M for a roughly 460M WW FSS. Could be as low as 420 maybe or as high as 500, seeing as this is our first weekend drop.

[HouseOfTheSun]

21 minutes ago, Godzilla said:

So can it reach $3B? 

The math to 3 bil I would still qualify as a tad optimistic. If Pika fails to really break out I could see it potentially happening 

[Fake]

Thinking 150-155M DOM weekend, 68-70M china and 220-230M OS-CH 3-Day.

 

Cumes will be 625M DOM + 580M CH + 1125M OS-CH = 2.23B

[keysersoze123]

6 minutes ago, Fake said:

Thinking 150-155M DOM weekend, 68-70M china and 220-230M OS-CH 3-Day.

 

Cumes will be 625M DOM + 580M CH + 1125M OS-CH = 2.23B

WOW. That is phenomenal. It should take out avatar in 2 weeks after that and $3B finish.

[nguyenkhoi282]

1 hour ago, bladels said:

So Endgame's already become the highest grossing film in VN with ~203B dong ($8.77M) in just 1 week

It stayed nearly flat through out holidays. Just incredible 😍

 

That's inaccurate. Add another 11%.

[peludo]

1 hour ago, VenomXXR said:

 

It’s a line from Infinity War.

 

Strange: Congratulations, you’re a prophet.

Thanos: I’m a survivor. 

I have watched it last Friday before Endgame and I can not remember it... I will have to see it again

[catlover]

In Indonesia, it already passed IW on Friday to become the highest grossing film of all time. Legs are even better than I expected. All of its first 8 days are bigger than Captain Marvel's OD, which held the OD record before EG broke it. Looks like it can reach $32m and 10m admisions by the end of this weekend. That's my optimistic projection anyway. Could be lower than that.

 

Now the question is, how will EG perform after this Monday. Because Ramadhan starts on Monday, and people will focus on their religious activities, like going to the mosque more often than usual, and spend more time with their families after work by breaking the fast at home, rather than say, go to the mall to see Endgame. Also Pikachu is coming.

[Omni]

8 hours ago, pepsa said:

I think it's hard to miss 2.2B right?

Look at it this way: After thursday $1.78B.

 

DOM over $150m, I mean most are thinking around high 50's to high 60's.

China is looking at a 73m for FSS. (Using 248m Yuan today and 35% drop / 50% drop on SS)

 

So DOM and China will get it up to 2.003B (with the LOW Dom number)

OS-China today is looking like 45m, let's give us some room and take $41m to be safe. (Wednesday number was 88m).

I think it's extremely safe to say it FSS won't drop under Thursday. Because we have Japan, with golden week and Russia with OW we might not see big jumps for these markets. Japan won't jump because of the golden week and Russia will jump but smaller. 

That said most markets will se big jumps on friday and then again on Sat and go down on sun.

 

I would say 58m seems fair for friday, $81.2m (40% jump) for sat and then down 20% sun: $65m.

This would give us $204m and 2.207B at the end of sunday.

That said I am pretty sure DOM will go higher, china might go higher as well and OS-China I think.

So I expect something like $2.224B +- $20m, but yeah it could go below but I think the chance is not so big. 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

For people who don't want to be dissapointed Omni's numbers are verry realistic with good room to increase and you have much less chance to be dissapointed after Sunday. 

 

It's not so hard to miss it. Well, it wasn't based on a 1.78B total thru Thursday, but since actuals are at 1.786B it's certainly more difficult now.

 

Main reason for projecting a sub-2.2B total on Sunday is past evidence for highly hyped movies: it looks like most of the times something goes wrong (ex. low Friday rise) and the numbers, while great, feel a little underwhelming. Additional reason is that using IW's behaviour on 2nd weekend OS-China, the 3-day Fri-Sun gross for EG (assuming a 42/43M OS-Ch Thursday) could easily go under 200M.

 

My maths actually gave me 2.22B from a 1.78B projection (my gut said otherwise). Using the actual figure, it's 2.23B. We'll see how much of a weekend movie it is.

Edited May 3, 2019 by Omni

[Moses]

Os- china is now at 800 million 

If it adds 180-200 this weekend

It will be at 980-1 billion

If it follows IW trend it is at 72 %

So final os -china can be 1330-1370 millions

Edited May 3, 2019 by Moses

[Joyous Legion]

2 minutes ago, Omni said:

assuming a 42/43M OS-Ch Thursday

But... it was a 50M OS-Ch Thursday?

[Omni]

35 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

But... it was a 50M OS-Ch Thursday?

In fact I was explaining why I thought EG could easily miss 2.2B by Sunday...when I wrote what pepsa quoted and when guesstimates were in the low 40's range.

[pepsa]

59 minutes ago, Omni said:

It's not so hard to miss it. Well, it wasn't based on a 1.78B total thru Thursday, but since actuals are at 1.786B it's certainly more difficult now.

 

Main reason for projecting a sub-2.2B total on Sunday is past evidence for highly hyped movies: it looks like most of the times something goes wrong (ex. low Friday rise) and the numbers, while great, feel a little underwhelming. Additional reason is that using IW's behaviour on 2nd weekend OS-China, the 3-day Fri-Sun gross for EG (assuming a 42/43M OS-Ch Thursday) could easily go under 200M.

 

My maths actually gave me 2.22B from a 1.78B projection (my gut said otherwise). Using the actual figure, it's 2.23B. We'll see how much of a weekend movie it is.

Using the 'worst case' $42.5m following IW (only got the Thursday/Friday and Saturday numbers so I will use a 20% and 15% sunday drop

F: $50.6m

S: $77.0m

S: $61.6m (20% drop) $65.5m (Full 3 day => $189.2m / $193.1m so yeah here it could clearly go below the $200m however when I calculated it I pulled Russia out of the equasion because that had just opened on Thursday, this year no extra market opened on Thursday. It's true that Russia also opened only this week but it's been running from Monday, already had a holiday on Wed so by Thursday it will be decenlty normal with pretty 'normal' FSS increases/drops. 

 

IW's % increases were: 19.06% and 52.23%

IW had /    Russia    /   IW - Russia   / % increases - Rusia

Thu: 32m    $5.00m     $27m                 Thu to Fri: 27.89%

Fri: 38.1m   $3.57m     $34.53m             Fri to Sat:  53.22%

Sat: 58m     $5.09m     $52.91m

 

So I used these to get: 

Fri: $54.35m

Sat: $83.28m

Sun: $66.62m (20%) and $70.79m (15%)

 

These would give EG: $204.25m / $208.42m both over the $200m.

EDIT I used $41m as worst case and that would get it below $200m with IW's drop so yeah it was more possible then I thought.

Still I do think taking Russia out of the weekend for IW is important because it made up 15.6% of the total Thursday gross so ahd a big impact like you can see  

Edited May 3, 2019 by pepsa