BOX OFFICE THEORY WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM WEEKEND THREAD | 150 OW OFFICIAL ESTIMATE | No Spoilers, Read Rules First Post! | First Post Updated with Sale Info

[bladels]

JW's OW/previews ratio gets FK to around $145M with $13M previews

But JW is a walk-ups monster so I expect FK to do around $100-120M

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, John Marston said:

This isn’t playing like an X men film over the weekend. Saturday will be very strong 

Even though the extremely walk up driven JW only had a 9% jump from its true Friday? 

[aabattery]

2 minutes ago, 4815162342 said:

The movie is goofy.

 

The movie is stupid.

 

The movie is tonally inconsistent.

 

The movie throws in several plot ideas and themes and ends up undercooking all of them.

 

 

  

But I still had a relatively fun time.

 

The power of dinosaurs.

 

[filmlover]

Just now, aabattery said:

 

The power of dinosaurs.

 

Time for that Dinosaurs reboot.

 

[dxmatrixdt]

likely shit # reported by Deadline.  JW is coming off the back of the former #1 opener of all time.  Should get to 15.

Edited June 22, 2018 by mathemetrics

[Biggestgeekever]

My god, that tried vey hard to be the dumbest movie I've ever seen. 

[TalismanRing]

Just now, filmlover said:

Jurassic World did $18.5M in Thursday previews three years ago so that's not exactly alarming imo.

I don't see this one pulling off a 11.3 multi.  I think 10 is high end, and 8 the low. 

 

So split the difference and give it a 9 and that's $108-117m  if the previews are $12-13m

 

$130m if it hits a 10x -  which would be a 37.5% drop from o/w - about the same as FSS for the UK, Italy and Germany

[That One Girl]

Fallen Kingdom is SMART and INTELLIGENT and i refuse to accept the "it's dumb" backlash

Edited June 22, 2018 by That One Guy

[manny1234]

I saw the movie and want to say it was quite underwhelming and I agree with this review from @ConnorFilm :

https://revengeofthefans.com/2018/06/21/rtf-film-review-connor-says-jurassic-world-fallen-kingdom-offers-same-old-spectacle/

[dxmatrixdt]

does anyone know why Deadline gets the numbers first and why it is the only place to report right away?

[Sam]

What’s the worst drop off in OW for a direct sequel to 150M+ opener?

 

Was it the Mockingjay Part 1 drop from Catching Fire? 

 

 

[4815162342]

5 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

Fallen Kingdom is SMART and INTELLIGENT and i refuse to accept the "it's dumb" backlash

 

It isn't backlash if it is the first impression of people coming right out the gate

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, Sam said:

What’s the worst drop off in OW for a direct sequel to 150M+ opener?

 

Was it the Mockingjay Part 1 drop from Catching Fire? 

 

 

Does Solo count?  

 

I imagine it'd be Mockingjay

[MovieMan89]

The best comps at 12-13m previews are probably Wonder Woman and GotG1. Proper summer releases and both had previews a little lower at 11m. But they weren't direct sequels, although they were CBMs. So it probably balances out nicely to be a good comp to FK. They opened in  the 94-103m range. 

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, 4815162342 said:

 

It isn't backlash if it is the first impression of people coming right out the gate

 

ok let me change my narrative.

 

jurassic world fallen kingdom is an art film that will be reassessed over the years.

Edited June 22, 2018 by That One Guy

[aabattery]

Live-footage of the walk-ups:

 

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, Sam said:

What’s the worst drop off in OW for a direct sequel to 150M+ opener?

 

Was it the Mockingjay Part 1 drop from Catching Fire? 

 

 

Unless one considers JL a direct BvS sequel then yeah Mockingjay.  There aren't that many $150m openers.

 

F7 didn't hit $150m but was close with $147m dropping to F8's $98.7m

[4815162342]

1 minute ago, aabattery said:

Live-footage of the walk-ups:

 

 

Live footage of TOG trying to chase away the consensus

 

[Porthos]

9 minutes ago, Sam said:

What’s the worst drop off in OW for a direct sequel to 150M+ opener?

 

Was it the Mockingjay Part 1 drop from Catching Fire? 

 

 

Quote

1	Avengers: Infinity War	BV	$257,698,183	38.7%	4,474	$57,599	$666,473,647	4/27/2018
2	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	BV	$247,966,675	26.5%	4,134	$59,982	$936,662,225	12/18/2015
3	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	BV	$220,009,584	35.5%	4,232	$51,987	$620,181,382	12/15/2017
4	Jurassic World	Uni.	$208,806,270	32.0%	4,274	$48,855	$652,270,625	6/12/2015
5	Marvel's The Avengers	BV	$207,438,708	33.3%	4,349	$47,698	$623,357,910	5/4/2012
6	Black Panther	BV	$202,003,951	28.9%	4,020	$50,250	$699,656,474	2/16/2018
7	Avengers: Age of Ultron	BV	$191,271,109	41.7%	4,276	$44,731	$459,005,868	5/1/2015
8	Incredibles 2	BV	$182,687,905	72.2%	4,410	$41,426	$253,112,730	6/15/2018
9	Captain America: Civil War	BV	$179,139,142	43.9%	4,226	$42,390	$408,084,349	5/6/2016
10	Beauty and the Beast (2017)	BV	$174,750,616	34.7%	4,210	$41,508	$504,014,165	3/17/2017
11	Iron Man 3	BV	$174,144,585	42.6%	4,253	$40,946	$409,013,994	5/3/2013
12	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2	WB	$169,189,427	44.4%	4,375	$38,672	$381,011,219	7/15/2011
13	Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice	WB	$166,007,347	50.3%	4,242	$39,134	$330,360,194	3/25/2016
14	The Dark Knight Rises	WB	$160,887,295	35.9%	4,404	$36,532	$448,139,099	7/20/2012
15	The Dark Knight	WB	$158,411,483	29.7%	4,366	$36,283	$533,345,358	7/18/2008
16	The Hunger Games: Catching Fire	LGF	$158,074,286	37.2%	4,163	$37,971	$424,668,047	11/22/2013
17	Rogue One: A Star Wars Story	BV	$155,081,681	29.1%	4,157	$37,306	$532,177,324	12/16/2016
18	The Hunger Games	LGF	$152,535,747	37.4%	4,137	$36,871	$408,010,692	3/23/2012
19	Spider-Man 3	Sony	$151,116,516	44.9%	4,252	$35,540	$336,530,303	5/4/2007

CF: MJ1     -36.2m

TFA:TLJ     -28.0m

TA:AoU     -16.2m

 

None of the other films qualify or they increased from their direct predecessor. 

Edited June 22, 2018 by Porthos

[dxmatrixdt]