BOX OFFICE THEORY WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM WEEKEND THREAD | 150 OW OFFICIAL ESTIMATE | No Spoilers, Read Rules First Post! | First Post Updated with Sale Info

[Sam]

2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Unless one considers JL a direct BvS sequel then yeah Mockingjay.  There aren't that many $150m openers.

 

F7 didn't hit $150m but was close with $147m dropping to F8's $98.7m

One simply doesn’t consider JL. 

 

Actually, seems like everyone didn’t consider JL.

[That One Girl]

3 minutes ago, 4815162342 said:

 

Live footage of TOG trying to chase away the consensus

 

 

Sometimes you just gotta embrace the fact that you have really bad taste.

[MovieMan89]

Looking at all previews in the 11-14m range, the highest OW is Deadpool's at 132m. Obviously don't have to explain why FK wouldn't have as good of an internal multi as that if you know when that released. After that, IT is the next best with 123m. All the rest are in the 84-103 range. 

[filmlover]

13 minutes ago, Sam said:

What’s the worst drop off in OW for a direct sequel to 150M+ opener?

 

Was it the Mockingjay Part 1 drop from Catching Fire? 

 

 

Pretty sure Alice Through the Looking Glass takes the cake for biggest drop for a sequel to a $100M+ opener with zero competition for that title.

Edited June 22, 2018 by filmlover

[Sam]

12M would be eh. 

 

I think it’ll end closer to 14M.

[dxmatrixdt]

Some of these holdovers looks like they were mercilessly dumped.  I2 must have kept its over showings.

Book Club could stayed with 1,000+ and benefitted with strong #s.  Upgrade, Adrift, Book Club, and First Reformed are the solid performers that got the short end this week.  

 

Breaking In is the only Universal film that could be playing with Jurassic World on the double bills.  Would Jurassic World have to pay extra to host a film being double billed that is not from their studio?

 

3	2	Ocean's 8	Warner Bros.	3,656	-489	-11.8%	3
5	4	Deadpool 2	Fox	2,420	-792	-24.7%	6
6	5	Solo: A Star Wars Story	Buena Vista	2,338	-844	-26.5%	5
8	6	Hereditary	A24	2,002	-996	-33.2%	3
9	9	Avengers: Infinity War	Buena Vista	1,456	-708	-32.7%	9
10	10	Adrift	STX Entertainment	871	-1,058	-54.8%	4
11	11	Book Club	Paramount	672	-984	-59.4%	6
13	14	Overboard (2018)	Pantelion	325	-256	-44.1%	8
15	15	Breaking In (2018)	Universal	220	-284	-56.3%	7
16	18	A Quiet Place	Paramount	215	-182	-45.8%	12
17	25	Ready Player One	Warner Bros.	162	-39	-19.4%	13
18	22	First Reformed	A24	151	-122	-44.7%	6
19	24	The Seagull	Sony Classics	145	-66	-31.3%	7
20	26	Black Panther	Buena Vista	115	-31	-21.2%	19
21	12	Upgrade	BH Tilt	101	-545	-84.4%	4
22	23	A Wrinkle in Time	Buena Vista	90	-155	-63.3%	16

[spectroul]

I'm new here but what are the chances of this 12M number increasing by the next update?

[Sam]

So is Fallen Kingdom better/worse than JP3 (aka best JP sequel)?@4815162342 @aabattery

[aabattery]

Just now, Sam said:

So is Fallen Kingdom better/worse than JP3 (aka best JP sequel)?@4815162342 @aabattery

 

There are no movies worse than Jurassic Park 3. You know this, Sam.

[TalismanRing]

4 minutes ago, mathemetrics said:

Some of these holdovers looks like they were mercilessly dumped.  I2 must have kept its over showings.

Book Club could stayed with 1,000+ and benefitted with strong #s.  Upgrade, Adrift, Book Club, and First Reformed are the solid performers that got the short end this week.  

 

Breaking In is the only Universal film that could be playing with Jurassic World on the double bills.  Would Jurassic World have to pay extra to host a film being double billed that is not from their studio?

 

3	2	Ocean's 8	Warner Bros.	3,656	-489	-11.8%	3
5	4	Deadpool 2	Fox	2,420	-792	-24.7%	6
6	5	Solo: A Star Wars Story	Buena Vista	2,338	-844	-26.5%	5
8	6	Hereditary	A24	2,002	-996	-33.2%	3
9	9	Avengers: Infinity War	Buena Vista	1,456	-708	-32.7%	9
10	10	Adrift	STX Entertainment	871	-1,058	-54.8%	4
11	11	Book Club	Paramount	672	-984	-59.4%	6
13	14	Overboard (2018)	Pantelion	325	-256	-44.1%	8
15	15	Breaking In (2018)	Universal	220	-284	-56.3%	7
16	18	A Quiet Place	Paramount	215	-182	-45.8%	12
17	25	Ready Player One	Warner Bros.	162	-39	-19.4%	13
18	22	First Reformed	A24	151	-122	-44.7%	6
19	24	The Seagull	Sony Classics	145	-66	-31.3%	7
20	26	Black Panther	Buena Vista	115	-31	-21.2%	19
21	12	Upgrade	BH Tilt	101	-545	-84.4%	4
22	23	A Wrinkle in Time	Buena Vista	90	-155	-63.3%	16

Adrift & BC were already down to a 1100 PTA  with huge 55%+ drops last w/e and Upgrade was down to a 800 PTA (after a 50% drop in PTA last week even with a huge  78% theater cut).  The bigger films above them were all holding much better and also got huge cuts.

[Legion Again]

Oh geeze. I’ve only seen the updated title so far, Time to find out just how much of a dumpster fire this thread has become.

[Moviefanatic]

Is Hotel Artemis out of theaters already? It’s not on the theater count list unless i missed it 

[bladels]

3 minutes ago, spectroul said:

I'm new here but what are the chances of this 12M number increasing by the next update?

Welcome to the forum

It's still early so it can go either ways but Deadline has been pretty good with their previews estimate lately

 

[That One Girl]

3 minutes ago, Sam said:

So is Fallen Kingdom better/worse than JP3 (aka best JP sequel)?@4815162342 @aabattery

 

Jurassic Park 3 is horrible.  Stop.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, aabattery said:

 

There are no movies worse than Jurassic Park 3. You know this, Sam.

Clearly you meant there are no movies more iconic than Jurassic Park 3.

[Sam]

2 minutes ago, aabattery said:

 

There are no movies worse than Jurassic Park 3. You know this, Sam.

Denial and confusion is still deep with you on this one huh?

 

It’s ok. We’ll keep working on it. I got you. 

[TalismanRing]

8 minutes ago, spectroul said:

I'm new here but what are the chances of this 12M number increasing by the next update?

Deadline has it at  around $12M+ tonight, and potentially north of $13M. so they're already hedging their bets that it might go higher.  They've been pretty good at preview numbers though as of late tend and to be only off $1m or so (except with AIW where it was all over the map except for the right number.)

Edited June 22, 2018 by TalismanRing

[aabattery]

If I see one more pro-Jurassic Park III post, I'm banning everyone.

 

And that's not a promise because doing that would be an inappropriate abuse of power but just let it be known that you are upsetting me.

[The Panda]

2 minutes ago, aabattery said:

If I see one more pro-Jurassic Park III post, I'm banning everyone.

 

And that's not a promise because doing that would be an inappropriate abuse of power but just let it be known that you are upsetting me.

Jurassic Park 3 is better than some dinosaur movies

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, aabattery said:

If I see one more pro-Jurassic Park III post, I'm banning everyone.

 

And that's not a promise because doing that would be an inappropriate abuse of power but just let it be known that you are upsetting me.

Soooooooo tempted..