Weekend Thread....Please read the staff announcement pg 104 (Solo 29.2...DP 23.3...Adrift 11.5)

[DAR]

A possible 69% drop for Solo and I can't even say nice @aabattery

[Nova]

It's not about picking $100M for original movies because original movies can gross over $100M at the domestic box office. We've had several this year already. It's like why on earth would anyone see the trailer for Action Point and think "damn that looks like a $100M grosser to me!" It looks like something that belongs on MTV which is where it should have been sent. 

[DAR]

2 minutes ago, Alli said:

leo's best role right there

I'd go with Wolf of Wall Street but it's certainly up there for me

[That One Girl]

Just now, Nova said:

It's not about picking $100M for original movies because original movies can gross over $100M at the domestic box office. We've had several this year already. It's like why on earth would anyone see the trailer for Action Point and think "damn that looks like a $100M grosser to me!" It looks like something that belongs on MTV which is where it should have been sent. 

 

It got good reactions whenever the trailer played!  None of the Jackass films have ever even come close to doing this poorly!

[Barnack]

6 hours ago, Brainbug said:

It happens though. More often even in todays age that some might think.

Peter rabbit is a nice I non P too and RPO is a 180m something Speilberg movie from a popular book.

 

It does happen in animation and horror movies yes, outside of that it is quite rare. Just count how many non-horror live action without any IP/popular real live event/biopic that made 100m in the last few year's (Nolan will be a significant percentage of them):

 

2016: 

Hidden Figures *(not sure how the real story in itself was a draw here, it was the movie A+ cinemascore that did it)

La la land

Central intelligence

Sully (*that a case were the real life story probably helped quite a bit like Amerian Sniper)

Bad Moms

Arrival 

Passenger

 

2017:

Baby Driver

Girls trip

Wonder

Greatest Showman

Dunkirk (popular real life event, but Nolan would have probably pushed it at 100m without that)

 

2018:

None yet, Rampage came really close a 9 figures budget affairs starring Dwayne Johnson (if we say the IP didn't do much for it and I would agree, it is not strong like a Peter Rabbit type).

 

 

For the non big studio comedy, you better getting some A/A+ cinemascore or near 100% RT performance to reach it.

 

 

 

Edited June 2, 2018 by Barnack

[CoolioD1]

wow action point's opening weekend is gonna be... so low.

[That One Girl]

Action Point OW O/U $660k (Bad Grandpa’s preview number)?

[Empire]

11 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Summer game predictions for Action Point:

 

@glassfairy 100M

WrathOfHan: 100M

@Jake Gittes 91M

@Telemachos 90M

@AndyLL 85M

@SchumacherFTW 85M

 

This prediction shamed @Telemachos into leaving the forums. 

[GambitPool]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

 

It got good reactions whenever the trailer played!  None of the Jackass films have ever even come close to doing this poorly!

Social media killed the Jackass era. Why pay for idiotic stunts when it's everywhere on Facebook/Twitter/Reddit/YouTube?

[harrycaul]

Yeah, I wouldn't have thought 100 for Action Point, but I thought 40s was entirely reasonable. As someone else said, the trailer reactions were always good. One of the few trailers I've seen get a consistently positive reaction. I guess in the end there's no compelling reason not to watch it on video, though.

[CoolioD1]

also wow what a drop for solo if that's the case. it's second weekend is gonna be... pretty bad.

[harrycaul]

If they spent $19 million making Action Point (somehow) the could have spent at least that much marketing it.  Oh well.

[GambitPool]

1 minute ago, CoolioD1 said:

also wow what a drop for solo if that's the case. it's second weekend is gonna be... pretty bad.

Subverted my expectations. Who are you? Rian Johnson? 

 

Just kidding. Please not another 300 page TLJ debate.

[RealLyre]

17M for deadpool 2 would be a disaster.

 

will barely reach $270M dom total 

 

 

[a2k]

~20 weekend takes dp2 to 251 and folks were thinking 260-270 total last weekend.

251+20*2.0 = 291

251+20*2.5 = 301

even my 313-314 dom club will be closer to 290-300 than 260-270.

[CJohn]

I guess the Jackass brand finally imploded. Paramount didn't even tried with Action Point, tho. Maybe a sort of direct sequel to Bad Grandpa would have been a better idea.

[Nova]

9 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

17M for deadpool 2 would be a disaster.

 

will barely reach $270M dom total 

 

 

Deadline is reporting $6M for DP2 Friday. If it does that, it's not going as low as $17M. 

 

THR didnt provide Friday numbers so we have no idea where they're getting their weekend numbers from but it's interesting (to me) that DP2 is their only movie that differs from Deadline in terms of weekend numbers. But I guess we shall see by the end of the night. 

 

Edit: Even using Alien Covenant drops it would do 

Friday: $5.55M

Saturday: $8.2M 

Sunday: $6.2M 

For a weekend total of $19.95M or so and keep in mind Alien lost 1,100 theaters that weekend so yea unless Deadpool 2 is falling flat on its face today (literally barely increasing from Thursday) I'm not sure where they're getting $17M from but hey they may have access to numbers that I don't. 

Edited June 1, 2018 by Nova

[Blaze Heatnix]

Look at the bright side, folks! At least Solo's opening weekend was higher than Avatar's!

 

 

[a2k]

Just now, Nova said:

Deadline is reporting $6M for DP2 Friday. If it does that, it's not going as low as $17M. 

 

THR didnt provide Friday numbers so we have no idea where they're getting their weekend numbers from but it's interesting (to me) that DP2 is their only movie that differs from Deadline in terms of weekend numbers. But I guess we shall see by the end of the night. 

6 + 8.1 (+35%) + 5.9 (-27%) = 20 looks reasonable with that friday. sundays get into mid-high 20s drops this time of the year.

with those holds needs as low as 5 friday to do 17. i think ~19 is as low it will go.

[WrathOfHan]

Just did a drive by the theater on my way to Publix to pick up my birthday cake.

 

The trades are too optimistic