Weekend Thread | Asgard sneaks up on p.24 ~ H2018 28, ASIB 8.1, V 7.9 GB2 4.4,FM 3.7

[La Binoche]

Sony’s Venom looks to rank second in its third weekend with $18.6M, -47% and a running total of $171.6M. Warner Bros./Live Nation’s A Star Is Born is eyeing $18.2M, -36% for $125.2M in third. 20th Century Fox’s The Hate U Give in its third weekend expansion from 248 to 2,302 locations is looking at a third Friday of $3M-$3.3M and a weekend of $9M-$10Mfor $13.4M. The George Tillman Jr. feature adaptation of the YA novel by Angie Thomas made $300K in previews at 1,600 locations in new markets from 7PM showtimes.

Sony’s Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween looking at a weekend 2 of $9.8M, -38%, for a 10-day of $28.9M.

Uni’s First Man is eyeing a second weekend of $9.4M, -41% for a 10-day of $30.8M.

[dxmatrixdt]

Hate U Give should be lucky to get 2.7 on Friday including previews

[WrathOfHan]

Wow, that's an excellent result for The Hate U Give. It'll beat Love, Simon's OW when you add in the limited numbers.

@VENOM you're still ahead of   

Edited October 19, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[MattW]

7.7 + 24 + 27^(+12.5%) + 17^(-37%) = 75

 

Low end 70, high end 80.  Baumer's club is still alive and well.

[raulbalarezo]

4 minutes ago, La Binoche said:

Sony’s Venom looks to rank second in its third weekend with $18.6M, -47% and a running total of $171.6M. Warner Bros./Live Nation’s A Star Is Born is eyeing $18.2M, -36% for $125.2M in third.

Keep waiting Gaga fans 

Edited October 19, 2018 by raulbalarezo

[dxmatrixdt]

Gaga doesn't seem to want to zoom up on the charts from weekdays to Fri+sat+sun the way that Venom does.

[Zakiyyah6]

Deadline projected 10mil for Venom's Thursday and I'm supposed to take that early 77mil number seriously? Don't mind me but I'm taking a wait and see attitude. Either way the film is going to have a stellar opening.

 

I'm sure someone will be butt hurt by my reasonable "wait and see" comment. Flop Solo fans certainly were but then had to eat crow afterwards. 

Edited October 19, 2018 by Zakiyyah6

[dxmatrixdt]

https://variety.com/2018/film/box-office/halloween-opening-weekend-box-office-1202985800/

‘Halloween’ to Make a Killing With Opening Weekend in Mid-$70 Millions

 

Universal’s second weekend of space epic “First Man,” starring Ryan Gosling, is in a three-way fight for fourth place with Sony’s sophomore session of “Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween” and Fox’s expanded run of drama “The Hate U Give” to 2,303 locations. Friday’s estimates showed “The Hate U Give,” starring Amandla Stenberg, and “Goosebumps 2” in the $9 million to $10 million range, followed by “First Man” at about $8.5 million.

[DAJK]

That's an awesome expansion for Hate U Give. Almost makes up for that disappointing First Man number...

[Zakiyyah6]

I can't wait to see if my theory about First Man having only so-so/okay word of mouth is true. I see The Hate U Give as over performing if those numbers are true. They are going to fuck me in the Derby. Ugh. 

[redfirebird2008]

28 minutes ago, DAR said:

A possible 75+ million opening for a film series where the highest grossing film is only 58 million is pretty damn good

 

Ticket price inflation is a powerful thing. The original adjusts to $183m domestic and it earned this money almost entirely on word of mouth. Tiny production budget, tiny marketing budget.

 

The new movie has a very small production budget at $10m, but I would guess they have spent in the neighborhood of $30m on marketing. Pretty widespread advertising campaign. 

[Nova]

Deadline isn't the only outlet giving the mid 70's projection though.

 

Variety and THR also have Halloween there as well. 

 

But I am sure if Halloween misses that projection, Deadline will be the only one called out on it. 

[La Binoche]

It's hard to fault WB for their ASIB campaign. Turning a would-be Razzie contender into an R-rated date-night smash for adults is no easy feat especially in this day and age. But I question their decision to drop it in the midst of such intense competition. Bohemian in particular will knock the wind out of its sails. 

I also wonder if Halloween should have been released on the 12th. It's going to have two massive weeks but as of November 1st it's dead. 

[La Binoche]

4 minutes ago, DAJK said:

That's an awesome expansion for Hate U Give. Almost makes up for that disappointing First Man number...

Still weak. The book is huge (and phenomenally good). Handled right, it should have been a zeitgeist hit with African American audiences crossing over into other demographics. 

[DAJK]

1 minute ago, La Binoche said:

Still weak. The book is huge (and phenomenally good). Handled right, it should have been a zeitgeist hit with African American audiences crossing over into other demographics. 

True, in a perfect world this should have opened to 20M. But the limited release wasn't particularly strong, and indicated that this could go as low as 7M for the weekend. So 9-10 is at least a small win. 

[Zakiyyah6]

Are we trying to pretend that an R rated drama making a lot of money is a disappointment now? Lol. Never change BOT. There are no months without competition. A Star is Born is fine,  worry about the overhyped First Man. 

Edited October 19, 2018 by Zakiyyah6

[TwoMisfits]

6 minutes ago, Nova said:

Deadline isn't the only outlet giving the mid 70's projection though.

 

Variety and THR also have Halloween there as well. 

 

But I am sure if Halloween misses that projection, Deadline will be the only one called out on it. 

Nah, I'm only calling out Deadline for saying in the same piece that it could be $60M or $77M+...that's not even trying to project...

 

I mean, they have Thursday actuals and weekend presales...there shouldn't be that kinda enormous spread if they are any good at projecting...and if they have to have that kinda spread, they should pick the middle number and run with it (b/c it's less embarrassing than having a $17M spread on a movie that's only making double digits millions on OW)...

Edited October 19, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[Zakiyyah6]

Variety and THR will be called out by me as well if the projections are way off. I often think that their projections are suspect. I think 77mil could absolutely happen. It's not a remotely impossible outcome but ya'll don't mind if I wait do you? 

 

Anyway I hope that A Star is Born at least hits 17.5mil.

[a2k]

Deadline was conservative on Venom both it's weekends. Hoping it creeps up again for 19+ weekend (-45%).

19 3rd weekend will leave it 41-42 away from Solo; that's adding 2.2x the 3rd weekend to it's cume, which is very achievable.

 

---

 

Deadline's article implies that the 75.5 projection for Halloween is based on it behaving like The Nun. So they expect an OD around 31.5 going by that.

Edited October 19, 2018 by a2k

[Napoleon]