TMP Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 40 minutes ago, titanic2187 said: I think Best Actor, Cinematography and Best Adapted screenplay are in favour of Joker. Plus, the marketing has not been highlighting the DC brand, and 've been very award bodies' friendly with Sorcesese reference and Robert Deniro in the cast Cinematography's reaaaal competitive. Don't think Joker will break through, even with Lawrence Sher getting call outs in reviews, since The Lighthouse/OUATIH/The Irishman/1917 all have more chances of a nom. Ad Astra, A Hidden Life & The Aernonauts seem like likelier choices too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 1 minute ago, TMP said: Cinematography's reaaaal competitive. Don't think Joker will break through, even with Lawrence Sher getting call outs in reviews, since The Lighthouse/OUATIH/The Irishman/1917 all have more chances of a nom. Ad Astra, A Hidden Life & The Aernonauts seem like likelier choices too. 1917, OUATIH, The Irishman are likely. Other two spots are complete wild cards. I don't think any of the other nominees you mention are likely. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Right now I'll go ahead and predict: 1917 The Farewell The Irishman Jojo Rabbit Just Mercy Little Women Marriage Story Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Parasite Noah Baumbach Greta Gerwig Bong Joon Ho Martin Scorcese Quentin Tarantino Antonio Banderas Adam Driver Michael B. Jordan Joaquin Phoenix Adam Sandler Cynthia Erivo Scarlett Johansson Charlize Theron Alfre Woodard Renee Zellweger Jamie Foxx Tom Hanks Al Pacino Brad Pitt Taika Waititi Annette Bening Laura Dern Anna Paquin Meryl Streep Shuzhen Zhou The Farewell Marriage Story Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Parasite The Report Irishman Just Mercy Jojo Rabbit Laundromat A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 1 hour ago, Mr Pastaffelees said: Parasite That would be one of the biggest surprises all year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said: That would be one of the biggest surprises all year. Of course it'll depend partially on how box office fares but it looks like it'll have a LOT of support in its corner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 11 minutes ago, Mr Pastaffelees said: Of course it'll depend partially on how box office fares but it looks like it'll have a LOT of support in its corner. I don't know. The Academy hasn't given a shit about Asian cinema in about a decade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said: I don't know. The Academy hasn't given a shit about Asian cinema in about a decade. I feel like there hasn't really been an asian movie that's grabbed the American media's attention in about a decade. but Parasite is well positioned to do so. saw a few critics on twitter say that it was one of the most buzzed about movies at telluride, which is rare for a movie that premiered at Cannes months ago. they usually just like to buzz about the shiny new movies. feels like the kind of movie everyone likes so far, the hype train is real, bong is well respected, it's the foreign language film award frontrunner. idk, i've been predicting it for a best picture nom for a while now. i don't even think it's bottom of the pack it's somewhere in the middle. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 Pretty much came here to say what @CoolioD1 said. Plus according to Kris Tapley it played very well at Venice. It was also one of the fastest going tickets at TIFF. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted September 2, 2019 Author Share Posted September 2, 2019 5 hours ago, Mr Pastaffelees said: Right now I'll go ahead and predict: 1917 The Farewell The Irishman Jojo Rabbit Just Mercy Little Women Marriage Story Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Parasite Noah Baumbach Greta Gerwig Bong Joon Ho Martin Scorcese Quentin Tarantino Antonio Banderas Adam Driver Michael B. Jordan Joaquin Phoenix Adam Sandler Cynthia Erivo Scarlett Johansson Charlize Theron Alfre Woodard Renee Zellweger Jamie Foxx Tom Hanks Al Pacino Brad Pitt Taika Waititi Annette Bening Laura Dern Anna Paquin Meryl Streep Shuzhen Zhou The Farewell Marriage Story Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Parasite The Report Irishman Just Mercy Jojo Rabbit Laundromat A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood Picture 1917 A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood The Farewell The Irishman Harriet Marriage Story Parasite Jojo Rabbit Joker Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Director Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story Bong Joon Ho, Parasite Martin Scorsese, The Irishman Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit Lulu Wang, The Farewell Actor Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory Robert De Niro, Irishman Leonardo DiCaprio, Hollywood Adam Driver, Marriage Story Joaquin Phoenix, Joker Actress Awkwafina, The Farewell Cynthia Erivo, Harriet Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts Saoirse Ronan, Little Women S Actor Alan Alda, Marriage Story Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari Al Pacino, The Irishman Brad Pitt, Hollywood Tom Hanks, Beautiful Day S Actress Laura Dern, Marriage Story Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit Anna Paquin, The Irishman Florence Pugh, Little Women Suzhen Zhou, The Farewell O Screenplay Harriet Marriage Story Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Parasite The Farewell A Screenplay A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood Ford v Ferrari Jojo Rabbit The Irishman Little Women Editing Farewell Hollywood Joker Jojo Rabbit Irishman Cinematography 1917 Ad Astra Hollywood Irishman The Lighthouse Score 1917 Ad Astra The Farewell Jojo Rabbit The Rise of Skywalker Song Breakthrough Cats Frozen 2 Rocketman Wild Rose Production Design 1917 Ad Astra Cats Irishman Hollywood Costume Aeronauts Harriet Hollywood Irishman Little Women Hair and Makeup Cats Joker Irishman S Editing 1917 Ad Astra Endgame Ford v Ferrari Rise of Skywalker S Mixing 1917 Ad Astra Cats Endgame Rise of Skywalker VFX Ad Astra Endgame Irishman The Lion King Rise of Skywalker 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonwo Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 My hunch is that WB will push Just Mercy as its awards player rather than Joker and Motherless Brooklyn but I fully expect Joker will get a few best actor nominations for Joaquin Phoenix. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM! Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 I'm not feeling good about Harriet. The trailer makes the film look a bit TV-quality. A good comparison for Harriet might end up being the Thurgood Marshall movie with Chadwick Boseman that bombed in 2017. Cynthia Erivo might still get in for Actress, but the chances for categories like Director and Original Screenplay are starting to wane a bit. I wouldn't want the film to get in for Original Screenplay anyway because there's a lot more eclectic choices that could take that spot. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 28 minutes ago, SLAM! said: I'm not feeling good about Harriet. The trailer makes the film look a bit TV-quality. A good comparison for Harriet might end up being the Thurgood Marshall movie with Chadwick Boseman that bombed in 2017. Cynthia Erivo might still get in for Actress, but the chances for categories like Director and Original Screenplay are starting to wane a bit. I wouldn't want the film to get in for Original Screenplay anyway because there's a lot more eclectic choices that could take that spot. I don't think anyone is surprised that Harriet is looking to be a lone Erivo nomination play at best. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 THE HYPE! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 People also presumably know about Bong asking audiences not to reveal the story's surprises and that fuels curiosity. Anyway, yes, I think it's more likely to be nominated for picture than not, with director and screenplay also solid possibilities. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 Definitely moving Bong into my Best Director lineup. Need to learn more about the movie to feel comfortable putting it in Picture - Academy has rejected seemingly sure thing foreign films before, but as of right now I would say it is definitely more likely than it is not. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 (edited) I still don't see Parasite breaking out of foreign film. The Academy doesn't view him the same way they view Alfonso Cuaron or Michael Haneke (and even then both those films had expensive marketing campaigns that I can't see Neon competing with). And both those films also had acting nominations which this one will not (Song Kang-Ho is the only actor who has a chance of getting nominated and those chances are slim with the Best Actor race being so tight this year). This movie will do well as well as Shoplifters would have done if it didn't have to compete with Roma. Edited September 2, 2019 by lorddemaxus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM! Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 (edited) I think one thing in Parasite's corner might be the deal Neon made with Hulu. Hulu's inclusion in that Disney+ deal means more people with access to Hulu (and subsequently Neon's film slate), more people who can watch Parasite in the comfort of their homes, and more people who are aware enough of Parasite to propel its chances. Maybe the movie won't be coming from theaters to Hulu fast enough for the nomination aspect, but it could be a boon for the film to win the foreign category, or maybe even another category. Does this theory hold water? Edited September 2, 2019 by SLAM! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 2 hours ago, lorddemaxus said: I still don't see Parasite breaking out of foreign film. The Academy doesn't view him the same way they view Alfonso Cuaron or Michael Haneke (and even then both those films had expensive marketing campaigns that I can't see Neon competing with). And both those films also had acting nominations which this one will not (Song Kang-Ho is the only actor who has a chance of getting nominated and those chances are slim with the Best Actor race being so tight this year). This movie will do well as well as Shoplifters would have done if it didn't have to compete with Roma. I dunno Haneke strikes me as a good comparison. Like Haneke at the time of Amour, Bong's been making well-received movies for two decades and now he's made the one everyone including the Academy can get onboard with. And having seen it... it simply plays well, with an air of obvious accomplishment to it that can lead to healthy word-of-mouth and buzz among the Academy members as well. It doesn't need acting nods. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 10 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said: I dunno Haneke strikes me as a good comparison. Like Haneke at the time of Amour, Bong's been making well-received movies for two decades and now he's made the one everyone including the Academy can get onboard with. And having seen it... it simply plays well, with an air of obvious accomplishment to it that can lead to healthy word-of-mouth and buzz among the Academy members as well. It doesn't need acting nods. The White Ribbon had already had a nomination before that too though. The only other Bong Joon-ho film to have been submitted didn't get a nomination. And I don't know. Sony probably was able to afford a bigger and better awards campaign (so was Netflix and Miramax who distributed other foreign films that got into Best Picture). The movie certainly plays well and it will do really well in film critic circle awards ceremonies but so did Burning and The Handmaiden (didn't get submitted by Korea but other categories don't need the country to submit the film). I can only see it happen if Bong-hive can carry the film's boxoffice in the US and the movie has an healthy gross there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 I like Burning but it didn't have nearly the entertainment value of Parasite. I don't know if there was any push for The Handmaiden at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...