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Best Picture Predictions - 2019

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1 hour ago, maxalcamo said:

Frozen 2

Pain and Glory

Fair and Balanced

The Laundromat

Once upon a time in hollywood

Harriet

Rocket man

The souvenir

Queen &  Slim 

A beautiful day in the neighborhood.

 

 

This is definitely a wish list.

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1 minute ago, maxalcamo said:

No my wish list would be a lot different. 

The Souvenir isn't coming anywhere near a Best Picture nomination (The Farewell is already on track to make significantly more money and will be A24's main push) and neither is Rocketman or especially Frozen 2 (if Inside Out couldn't manage a Best Picture nomination, why would this?).

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2 hours ago, filmlover said:

The Souvenir isn't coming anywhere near a Best Picture nomination (The Farewell is already on track to make significantly more money and will be A24's main push) and neither is Rocketman or especially Frozen 2 (if Inside Out couldn't manage a Best Picture nomination, why would this?).

 

To be fair, I'm sure that, in a ten film field, Inside Out could have surely gotten a place in the Best Picture lineup, and how close it got in a pretty strong year for film is pretty noteworthy in and of itself. I think Frozen 2 will depend on the competition, but you're correct in saying there's a ton of things against it.

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20 hours ago, filmlover said:

The Souvenir isn't coming anywhere near a Best Picture nomination (The Farewell is already on track to make significantly more money and will be A24's main push) and neither is Rocketman or especially Frozen 2 (if Inside Out couldn't manage a Best Picture nomination, why would this?).

Why Beauty and the beast and why not The lion King. Who knows. 

Edited by maxalcamo
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4 hours ago, maxalcamo said:

Why Beauty and the beast and why not The lion King. Who knows. 

 

I'll speculate. The other Best Picture nominees in 91/92 were Bugsy, JFK, The Prince of Tides, and the eventual winner, Silence of the Lambs. From the outside looking in, it seems like it was a weaker year than others--we don't frequently refer back to a film like Bugsy--so it's easy to see why Beauty and the Beast, a film commonly referred to as the best animated film of all time, was able to secure its spot.

 

Meanwhile, the 94/95 nominees showed much more strength all across the board. Three of the best films of all time were in that lineup: Forrest Gump, Pulp Fiction, and The Shawshank Redemption. Three undeniable classics. That doesn't leave room for much else. So if the Academy is famous for fixating itself on films the commonfolk forget after many years like Ordinary People and Out of Africa, then yeah, they're gonna fill those last two nominations with Quiz Show and Four Weddings and a Funeral. And I'm sure those films are deserving in their own right--we know from the Big Three of the year that 1994 was a landmark year for film. But yeah, The Lion King's miss was definitely an upset.

 

Maybe it was the romance of Beauty and the Beast that spoke to the Academy. Maybe it was the historical setting. Maybe it was because the film, the kickstarter of the Disney renaissance, showed audiences breathtaking animation and visuals they've never seen before. And maybe The Lion King was deemed simplistic in comparison. But just because The Lion King wasn't nominated doesn't mean it didn't deserve it, and it doesn't mean we can't hold it dear to our hearts.

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https://variety.com/2019/film/news/ad-astra-joker-rambo-the-aeronauts-venice-film-festival-1203268644/

 

Big rumors for Venice so far are the Noah Baumbach movie with Adam Driver/ScarJo, The Pope, The King (👀), The Aeronauts, Against All Enemies, The Truth (Hirokazu Kore-eda's next movie), Ad Astra, Joker, and...the new Rambo movie? The Irishman, The Goldfinch, and Gemini Man aren't expected though.

Edited by CoolEric258
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BP

1917

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

The Farewell

Ford v Ferrari

Harriet

The Irishman

Jojo Rabbit

Little Women

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Queen & Slim

Alt: The Goldfinch

 

Director

Greta Gerwig, Little Women

Kasi Lemmons, Harriet

Martin Scorsese, The Irishman

Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time

Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit

Alt: Sam Mendes, 1917

 

Actor

Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory

Robert De Niro, The Irishman

Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time

Taron Egerton - Rocketman

Daniel Kaluuya, Queen & Slim

Alt: Matt Damon, Ford v Ferrari

 

Actress

Awkwafina, The Farewell

Cynthia Erivo, Harriet

Lupita Nyongo, Us

Saoirse Ronan, Little Women 

Jodie Turner Smith, Queen & Slim

Alt: Kristen Stewart, Against All Enemies

 

S Actor

Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari

Leslie Odom Jr, Harriet

Al Pacino, The Irishman

Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time

Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit

Alt: Tom Hanks, It’s a Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

 

S Actress

Laura Dern, Little Women

Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit

Janelle Monae, Harriet

Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time

Meryl Streep, The Landromaut

Alt: Anna Paquin, The Irishman

 

O Screenplay

The Farewell

Harriet

Parasite

Once Upon a Time

Queen & Slim

Alt: Pain and Glory

 

A Screenplay

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Ford v Ferrari

The Irishman

Jojo Rabbit

Little Women

Alt: The Goldfinch

 

Cinematography

1917

Harriet

The Irishman

The Lighthouse

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

 

Editing

1917

Ford v Ferrari

The Irishman

Jojo Rabbit

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Alt: Rise of Skywalker

 

Production Design 

1917

Ad Astra

Harriet

Little Women

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Alt: The Irishman

 

Costume Design

The Aeronauts

Cats

Harriet

Little Women

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Alt: Jojo Rabbit

 

Makeup and Hairstyling

Cats

Joker

Little Women

Alt: Avengers: Endgame

 

Score

1917

Harriet

Little Women

The Rise of Skywalker

Us

Alt: Jojo Rabbit

 

Song

Cats

Frozen 2

I Punched Keanu Reeves, Always Be My Maybe

Rocketman

Spirit, The Lion King

 

Sound Editing

1917

The Aeronauts

Avengers: Endgame

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

The Rise of Skywalker

Alt: Ad Astra

 

Sound Mixing

1917

Avengers: Endgame

Ford v Ferrari

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

The Rise of Skywalker

Alt: The Aeronauts

 

Visual Effects

Ad Astra

Alita: Battle Angel

Avengers: Endgame

The Lion King

The Rise of Skywalker

Alt: The Aeronauts

 

Animated Feature

Frozen 2

I Lost My Body

Toy Story 4

Weathering With You

How to Train Your Dragon 3

 

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - 12

Harriet - 10

Little Women - 9

The Irishman - 7

Jojo Rabbit - 7

1917 - 7

Ford v Ferrari - 5

Queen & Slim - 4

The Rise of Skywalker - 4

The Farewell - 3

Avengers: Endgame - 3

Cats - 3

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood - 2

Ad Astra - 2

The Aeronauts - 2

Rocketman - 2

The Lion King - 2

Frozen 2 - 2

Toy Story 4 - 1

Pain and Glory - 1

Us - 1

Parasite - 1

The Lighthouse - 1 

The Landromaut - 1

Joker - 1

Alita: Battle Angel - 1 

Always Be My Maybe - 1 

Weathering With You - 1 

I Lost My Body - 1

How to Train Your Dragon 3 - 1

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One thing to consider about the Oscar race is that it already seems like the race for Original Screenplay is much more exciting and contentious than the race for Adapted Screenplay.

 

Original has OUaTiH, The Farewell, Harriet, the new Baumbach movie, Parasite, The Lighthouse, and a lot of other films in the running.

 

Meanwhile, the two biggest threats in Adapted are The Irishman and Jojo Rabbit. Of course, The Aeronauts can be a sure thing if they put it in Adapted. And I hope The Goldfinch is good so it has a chance at getting the Adapted nom.

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A September release date bodes total doom for Ad Astra and Goldfinch, that's a total dumping ground. Real shame too - love Ad Astra's concept/trailer (not to mention its fans @aabattery @CoolioD1) and Goldfinch because I loved the book. If they were releasing at better times they'd be two of my most anticipated of the year.

 

According to Tapley, Just Mercy is an absolute banger and it should be getting a limited Christmas release soon. Thinking about slotting Jordan into my predictions there with Banderas, Leo, Kaluuya, and whichever Ford v Ferraii guy is better. I think Banderas probably takes it home finally,

 

I am not convinced the Irishman is an actual movie that exists. 

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18 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

A September release date bodes total doom for Ad Astra and Goldfinch, that's a total dumping ground. Real shame too - love Ad Astra's concept/trailer (not to mention its fans @aabattery @CoolioD1) and Goldfinch because I loved the book. If they were releasing at better times they'd be two of my most anticipated of the year.

Not really for Ad Astra? It's opening in the same spot that Pitt's Moneyball did in 2011 and would likely be opening the first weekend of October like Gravity/The Martian/Blade Runner 2049 did if Joker hadn't already claimed that date.

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Annnnnd Just Mercy just moved to Christmas - officially slotting it in as a contender.

 

I wish I thought that about Ad Astra but I can't remember the last legit contender that dropped in September. I know it's only a few days on the calendar but nothing but mother!/Battle of the Sexes/White Boy Rick/Black mass style disappointments over the past few years. Maybe that's just a coincidence, idk.

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2 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

Annnnnd Just Mercy just moved to Christmas - officially slotting it in as a contender.

 

I wish I thought that about Ad Astra but I can't remember the last legit contender that dropped in September. I know it's only a few days on the calendar but nothing but mother!/Battle of the Sexes/White Boy Rick/Black mass style disappointments over the past few years. Maybe that's just a coincidence, idk. 

 

Have faith my child.

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Cats somehow finding itself a major contender (or nominated for anything, really) after that bizarre trailer after The Danish Girl scored a handful of nominations including an acting win for some reason would probably be all the proof we need that Tom Hooper has pretty damn powerful dirt on everyone in the Academy.

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Between a 100% RT score and how well it's doing in limited release so far, The Farewell seems to have announced itself as the first movie released to officially be in the hunt for a Best Picture nom and other noms (like Screenplay and Actress for Awkwafina).

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TIFF announced the first batch of movies that will be showing at the festival. In terms of notable releases:

 

-A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

-Bad Education

-Ford v Ferrari

-Harriet

-Honey Boy

-Jojo Rabbit

-Joker

-Judy

-Knives Out

-Motherless Brooklyn

-Pain and Glory

-Parasite

-The Goldfinch

-The Laundromat

-The Lighthouse

-The Report

-Uncut Gems

 

Only real notable omissions (at least for the moment, they could still be added) off the top of my head are Ad Astra, Little Women, The Irishman, Queen & Slim, and Lucy in the Sky

Edited by CoolEric258
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4 hours ago, 2010s Painkiller Race said:

what about some Alfonso Cuaron?

 

I'm sure he'd be in the running again if he had a film to release this year. But the guy just won three Oscars for one film so it's good to give others a chance.

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