Best Picture Predictions - 2019

[CoolioD1]

6 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

it's interesting that Marriage Story remains the best reviewed movie from the festivals (Parasite aside but that's foreign language)while simultaneously not called the front runner. It may be a good thing for peaking too early is something movies like to avoid (see ASIB). 

i think just because Baumbach's movies aren't really "Oscary" (might also be everyone being cautious about the Netflix thing). A couple years ago Moonlight was the most acclaimed movie from the festivals and nobody wanted to call that a frontrunner. partially because la la land seemed like it was built to win all the oscars and also just because people didn't think the academy would go for that type of film, which ended up being wrong so who knows.

[Valonqar]

That's a good point. I think I saw some comments like "doesn't feel like a winner, only a nominee" whatever that means. 

 

EDIT: Jojo is coming

 

I'

d also advise everyone not to sleep on Jojo Rabbit, which has the right message, the right timing, and the right amount of hope, with enough of an aesthetic identity and writerly cleverness to feel like the full package. I do not like this movie, but I also think it’s theoretically easy to like. This is a familiar feeling for me during awards season. Do either of you feel that way? Have you pinpointed releases that you know will go far, but already don’t feel great about?

 

 

Richard:
Kam, I’m with you on Jojo. That movie—for all its (effortful) sweetness and easily digested messaging about Nazis being, y’know, bad (“but not all Nazis!” the movie lamely chirps right at the end)—just didn’t sit well with me.

Jojo got more of a critical drubbing at Toronto than I thought it would—but that still doesn’t shake the feeling I had watching the film, arriving somewhere during the third act, that this thing could go all the way. It may offer the exact kind of feints toward edginess without any real edge that a portion of the Academy is looking for in these comfort-seeking times. (So the opposite of the imagined pro-Joker camp.) A Jojo Rabbit win wouldn’t be a total disaster; there is enough to like in the movie, including Scarlett Johansson glowing through a wobbly accent, and some technically assured filmmaking (if heavily borrowed from other directors like Wes Anderson). But yeah. A win would suggest a certain hunger for platitudes on the Academy’s part that wouldn’t be terribly encouraging.

 

https://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2019/09/2020-oscar-predictions-fall-festivals

Edited September 14, 2019 by Valonqar

[Jake Gittes]

On 9/12/2019 at 6:42 AM, Cmasterclay said:

So I think with Telluride and Toronto past....I've rounded back into Once Upon a Time in Hollywood being the frontrunner. Seems to check the most boxes, from being a contender both above and below the line to the genre elements to being a commercial hit. The big caveat here is I have heard now from three sources I trust that Little Women is really great and potentially a nomination hog, and outside of the remake element, that seems to check a shit ton of boxes as well while also potentially not being left off as many ballots as Hollywood. I have those two as frontrunners. I have Marriage Story, Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, and Parasite as confidently nominated. I feel pretty good now that Ford v Ferrari and Two Popes are gonna be there, but maybe one of them First Mans it. I have Farewell eight and Joker as a potential ninth, but very unsure about that - could just as easily be Irishman/1917/Queen and Slim, or Knives Out, or Clemency/The Report, or something else entirely. Way too early to call those last few spots.

I doubt OUATIH can win picture but I think if The Irishman underwhelms Tarantino could become a favorite in best director.

[CoolioD1]

1 hour ago, Jake Gittes said:

I doubt OUATIH can win picture but I think if The Irishman underwhelms Tarantino could become a favorite in best director.

they might give it to Sam Mendes because 1917's supposed to look like it was done in one take and that's the kind of shit they love awarding in that category now.

[Cmasterclay]

For what its worth, saw a conversation this morning between a few big Oscar pundits and they all seem to think that Fox Searchlight is all in on A Hidden Life as their push and that's a real contender to get nominated for BP. I almost put it in my last set of predictions - if Malick gets in, I think the movie probably does too.

 

Do we think 1917 is going to be good? I'm not quite buying it yet, but we'll see. More War Horse than Dunkirk to me (yes I know War Horse was nominated, but come on).

Edited September 14, 2019 by Cmasterclay

[CoolioD1]

8 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

For what its worth, saw a conversation this morning between a few big Oscar pundits and they all seem to think that Fox Searchlight is all in on A Hidden Life as their push and that's a real contender to get nominated for BP. I almost put it in my last set of predictions - if Malick gets in, I think the movie probably does too.

 

Do we think 1917 is going to be good? I'm not quite buying it yet, but we'll see. More War Horse than Dunkirk to me (yes I know War Horse was nominated, but come on).

a lot of mendes' oscar bait movies get hit with the "pretty but hollow" remarks. this might be another one idk. if that and irishman are duds i'm all in on Bong winning best director.

[titanic2187]

I think the Oscar race this year will be similar to last's year after somewhat underwhelming responses from TIFF.

[CoolioD1]

1 minute ago, titanic2187 said:

I think the Oscar race this year will be similar to last's year after somewhat underwhelming responses from TIFF.

in what sense?

[Cmasterclay]

God, I think this year looks much better than last year, personally. Then again, if you had swapped out two from last year for Beale Street and Widows, which looked very possible at this point last year, it would have looked a bit better.

[CoolioD1]

the biggest comparison to last year is probably that joaquin phoenix like rami malek is going to win an oscar for a big hit that lots of people are gonna whine about from now until february. but because it's a DC movie the discourse will be 200% worse. 

[titanic2187]

3 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

in what sense?

Most critically acclaimed film was foreign language film(Parasite vs Roma ) with a superhero film in the race (Joker vs BP) and some films with mixed review (Jojo rabbit vs vice) prevails.    

[SLAM!]

1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said:

For what its worth, saw a conversation this morning between a few big Oscar pundits and they all seem to think that Fox Searchlight is all in on A Hidden Life as their push and that's a real contender to get nominated for BP. I almost put it in my last set of predictions - if Malick gets in, I think the movie probably does too.

 

Do we think 1917 is going to be good? I'm not quite buying it yet, but we'll see. More War Horse than Dunkirk to me (yes I know War Horse was nominated, but come on).

 

After Jojo Rabbit experienced disappointing reactions, that was the moment when I knew A Hidden Life would have a much easier path to Oscar success. Being an outright beautiful film is its own narrative, just as it was for Tree of Life. I also truly believe the Christian sector of the Academy is going to respond to it in more or less the same way they responded to Hacksaw Ridge.

 

I think 1917 is in a weird middle ground between War Horse and Dunkirk. I hope it's good... But there were some specific storytelling execution tidbits revealed in the trailer that didn't quite jive with me. If it's not a strong film, it can easily pull a First Man and only be a player in the techs. Baity subjects only get a film so far and really strong films are already locking BP nominations for themselves.

Edited September 14, 2019 by SLAM!

[titanic2187]

Wait a minute, I just realised one thing.

How can everyone ignore this Oscar-baity film from an Oscar veteran???

 

Spoiler

 

[SLAM!]

3 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Wait a minute, I just realised one thing.

How can everyone ignore this Oscar-baity film from an Oscar veteran???

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

Spoiler

Maybe the critics will hype it up once they see it... 

 

[Valonqar]

I think that whether movies with mixed or worse response than projected are written off or not should wait til tomorrow. TIFF Award could easily resurrect mixed reviewed crowd pleasers such as Jojo Rabbit and Just Mercy, both of whom some pundits think have a good shot at taking the award. 

 

I think that @titanic2187 analogy is onto something thought it isn't one to one. Parasite is supposedly much more commercial and accessible than Roma, Joker doesn't have the same nomination urgency as BP and Jojo is much more likable than Vice, so I'd say more comparable to Green Book in that it's approaching heavy topic with humor instead of a classic poo-faced way (such as Harriet).  I don't know how approachable Hidden Life is to replace Jojo completely for I think that average audience (including AMPAS) would click with Jojo. 1917 with its one-take shoot is more of a director show-off than War Horse (which was just a bait). 

 

 

[titanic2187]

8 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

I think that whether movies with mixed or worse response than projected are written off or not should wait til tomorrow. TIFF Award could easily resurrect mixed reviewed crowd pleasers such as Jojo Rabbit and Just Mercy, both of whom some pundits think have a good shot at taking the award. 

 

I think that @titanic2187 analogy is onto something thought it isn't one to one. Parasite is supposedly much more commercial and accessible than Roma, Joker doesn't have the same nomination urgency as BP and Jojo is much more likable than Vice, so I'd say more comparable to Green Book in that it's approaching heavy topic with humor instead of a classic poo-faced way (such as Harriet).  I don't know how approachable Hidden Life is to replace Jojo completely for I think that average audience (including AMPAS) would click with Jojo. 1917 with its one-take shoot is more of a director show-off than War Horse (which was just a bait). 

 

 

Don't forget, Tree of Life surprisingly sneak in the BP race despite only nominated another 2 categories for best director and best cinematography 

 

To make it even more surprising, the movie was released in May, well ahead of typical oscar season with just 13m box office receipt. This prove how passionate Terrence's fans among AMPAS   

[Valonqar]

So it depends on how approachable it is. tree of Life was considered a masterpiece or something, so if Hidden Life is anything but, Malik fans may back it up. 

[Webslinger]

I dunno, I have a hard time seeing a Malick movie winning Best Picture unless it’s way more conventional than his usual work.

[Joel M]

I don't see Mallick getting anywhere near BP/BD for a few reasons.

 

-2011 was so bad for mainstream oscar films that a silent french film and a scorsese boxoffice mega flop ended up the 2 biggest contenders of the season. This year might end up weak but not THAT weak. 

-Mallick doesn't hold the same allure for the arthouse-loving part of the Academy that he did a decade ago. A big part of his legend up to Tree of Life was that he was a recluse genius that graced the world with a movie once every decade and hollywood stars were tripping over themselves to end up on his cutting room floor. Every new Mallick movie used to be the event of the decade for the arthouse crowd. That's not the case anymore, he's done as many movies the last decade as he did in the previous 40 years.

-Most important of all, Hidden Life didn't exactly set the world on fire at Cannes. It was completely overshadowed by Bong, Tarantino, Sciamma and even Almodovar. I doubt the Academy will embrace him more than Cannes did.

 

I'm not saying the movie will be a non entity like the last few Mallick movies. It will be a much bigger deal, but the most I can see is a few random below the line noms like cinematography or the stuff period pieces usually get nominated for.

 

[Ezen Baklattan]

 

Don't count out Taika just yet.