Best Picture Predictions - 2019

[CoolioD1]

and people were calling me out for keeping jojo in my predictions lol. this is exactly the type of crowd pleaser shit the oscars flip for reviews or no.

[Valonqar]

Bahahaha, said Jojo was coming, see the top of previous page don't know how to take a screencap.

 

EDIT: Shocked that Marriage Story is first runner-up. Thought was going to be too down for TIFF. Parasite was expected to make top 3 (second runner-up).

Edited September 15, 2019 by Valonqar

[lorddemaxus]

Pretty much confirms a nomination for BP at this point. But if it does get nominated, I wonder what other nominations it could get. Screenplay and costume is all I can think of. 

 

Also, since 2012, one winner and one runner up has gotten into the BP race. This could be the first year all three films get in (first time ever since runners ups were announced) but I think if one gets left out, it's going to be Marriage Story. 

[Eric Duncan]

9 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Also, since 2012, one winner and one runner up has gotten into the BP race. This could be the first year all three films get in (first time ever since runners ups were announced) but I think if one gets left out, it's going to be Marriage Story. 

Isn't Marriage Story in the running for most of the above-the-line categories?

[SLAM!]

I'm really happy for Jojo Rabbit. I was looking forward to it being a player in the awards season, and the critical reception seemed to have torpedoed it. Excellent! The year's weak enough where it can come back in and make a strong impression!

[titanic2187]

Never a TIFF award winner had such low RT or MC score ( 75% and 52% at the moment) , even Green book had 78% RT and 69 MC.

 

Of course this may go up from here but its theatrical run will be key. If it flops, I can see the movie missed out in the race. Last year, Green Book did just fine before nomination but had A+ cinemascore.   

 

Also, I am quite surprise Knives Out was left out in top3. Trailer suggests that is a crowd-pleaser than Marriage story.

 

Parasite Oscar buzz just got higher, hope Neon doesn't screw up its box office run. Any box office gross of above 5m will be great for Neon to leverage its Oscar campaign.    

[Valonqar]

I think we'll see more of Audience/Critics discrepancy in the future, and, as the matter of fact, Picture winner/critics darling discrepancy as well. Not necessarily a bad thing. 

 

This is an excellent news for Marriage Story because it seems that audience responds to it despite not being a crowd pleaser. 

 

Parasite just keep coming. 

 

Jojo is the one to beat, though. 

 

@Eric! yes which is two edged sword. Quite a few movies scored bucketful of above the lines and ended up with nothing or just the Script. But that this is a runner-up is encouraging.

Edited September 15, 2019 by Valonqar

[filmlover]

Jojo lives! Definitely what it needed to emerge a strong contender again, even if it's currently difficult to see where its above-the-line support could come from. ScarJo was the winner of TIFF this year.

 

Waves appears dead now. The Farewell is looking to be A24's best bet. Just Mercy also seems to have taken a bit of a hit compared to before the festival as well.

Edited September 15, 2019 by filmlover

[RealLyre]

Jojo rabbit was an unexpected win but I'm glad a fox searchlight film will still be in the awards conversation. maybe that will convince Disney to keep them around for a few more years (even tho a Disney exec wasn't very fond of Jojo and how it would reflect the studio image )

 

 

also Parasite continues to build buzz with getting the 2nd runner up. I think if NEON don't mess up their box office run and campaign, it can land a picture/director nomination

[Ezen Baklattan]

It's a shame that Portrait of a Lady on Fire didn't get a whole lot of momentum it needed to go beyond International Film category, though I could maybe see it pull a Cold War with enough passion.

[RealLyre]

1 minute ago, Spaghetti said:

It's a shame that Portrait of a Lady on Fire didn't get a whole lot of momentum it needed to go beyond International Film category, though I could maybe see it pull a Cold War with enough passion.

I don't think NEON would push it for anything outside of International (ofc assuming France submits it in the coming days). they already have Parasite on their hands. 

[Valonqar]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Jojo lives! Definitely what it needed to emerge a strong contender again, even if it's currently difficult to see where its above-the-line support could come from. ScarJo was the winner of TIFF this year.

 

Waves appears dead now. The Farewell is looking to be A24's best bet. Just Mercy also seems to have taken a bit of a hit compared to before the festival as well.

A24 can still push Dafoe in Supporting and WB should give up pushing Just mercy for Picture and focus on Foxx in supporting.

 

My current predictions in alphabetical order:

 

1917 (showy direction)

Jojo (crowd pleaser, message, TIFF audience win)

Joker (blockbuster, Venice prestige, Best Actor to beat)

Little Women (some late entry crashes the party)

Marriage Story (reviews, TIFF audience runner up, big showcase for actors)

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (reviews, boxoffice, about industry)

Parasite (reviews, showy direction, foreign inclusion)

Two Popes or Farewell (can't decide and don't expect 9 spots, both have reviews and showcase actors)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[RealLyre]

23 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

A24 can still push Dafoe in Supporting and WB should give up pushing Just mercy for Picture and focus on Foxx in supporting.

 

My current predictions in alphabetical order:

 

1917 (showy direction)

Jojo (crowd pleaser, message, TIFF audience win)

Joker (blockbuster, Venice prestige, Best Actor to beat)

Little Women (some late entry crashes the party)

Marriage Story (reviews, TIFF audience runner up, big showcase for actors)

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (reviews, boxoffice, about industry)

Parasite (reviews, showy direction, foreign inclusion)

Two Popes or Farewell (can't decide and don't expect 9 spots, both have reviews and showcase actors)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

is foreign inclusion a thing now for the AMPAS? I know they have been including more members overseas every year but I thought Roma & Cold War breaking out of the foreign category was more of a testament on how weak the english-speaking films that year were. (the ones that had oscar buzz anyway)

[Valonqar]

17 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

is foreign inclusion a thing now for the AMPAS? I know they have been including more members overseas every year but I thought Roma & Cold War breaking out of the foreign category was more of a testament on how weak the english-speaking films that year were. (the ones that had oscar buzz anyway)

They are weak this year too. But added number of foreigners probably helps. 

 

 

[Ezen Baklattan]

2 hours ago, RealLyre said:

I don't think NEON would push it for anything outside of International (ofc assuming France submits it in the coming days). they already have Parasite on their hands. 

Maybe Cinematography or Costume Design if it gets enough passion. A guy can dream, god damnit!

[SLAM!]

13 minutes ago, Spaghetti said:

Maybe Cinematography or Costume Design if it gets enough passion. A guy can dream, god damnit!

 

I think it helps that Portrait is the only film besides Parasite and maybe Pain & Glory that has a clear path to getting nominated in the International category. Portrait is already a film that people have a lot of passion for, and maybe, for that reason, it can get nominations other than International. I'm sure smaller awards bodies will be giving it nominations throughout the season. One thing is for certain: Neon is going to have their hands full with campaigning this year. Hopefully France actually chooses it...

[TMP]

1 hour ago, Valonqar said:

A24 can still push Dafoe in Supporting and WB should give up pushing Just mercy for Picture and focus on Foxx in supporting.

 

My current predictions in alphabetical order:

 

1917 (showy direction)

Jojo (crowd pleaser, message, TIFF audience win)

Joker (blockbuster, Venice prestige, Best Actor to beat)

Little Women (some late entry crashes the party)

Marriage Story (reviews, TIFF audience runner up, big showcase for actors)

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (reviews, boxoffice, about industry)

Parasite (reviews, showy direction, foreign inclusion)

Two Popes or Farewell (can't decide and don't expect 9 spots, both have reviews and showcase actors)

1917 over Irishman?!? Wtf

[RealLyre]

27 minutes ago, TMP said:

1917 over Irishman?!? Wtf

Netflix having more than 1 picture nomination would be interesting but I can see Scorsese's clout getting him in. ( tbh i don't know much about his film, is it just a crime gangster film about old people in the mafia? I'm not sure if it's the type of film that would do big at the awards but it has a lot of big names behind it so we'll see) 

 

 

as for 1917, unless the movie is really good. I don't see it doing much outside of cinematography and maybe editing. 

 

 

 

[TMP]

4 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

Netflix having more than 1 picture nomination would be interesting but I can see Scorsese's clout getting him in. ( tbh i don't know much about his film, is it just a crime gangster film about old people in the mafia? I'm not sure if it's the type of film that would do big at the awards but it has a lot of big names behind it so we'll see) 

 

 

as for 1917, unless the movie is really good. I don't see it doing much outside of cinematography and maybe editing. 

Yeah, I don't know why the reunion of two of the greatest actors of all-time (and Joe Pesci, who I also love) with Scorsese behind the camera would be less likely to be nominated than discount Dunkirk with a gimmick. This is the first time Marty's ever even worked with PacinHOO HA, and every Marty/De Niro collab beforehand's been incredible (I haven't seen New York, New York though, so maybe that breaks their streak)

[Ezen Baklattan]

Also without placing in the top 3 at TIFF, Two Popes looks like it's pretty much dead.