Best Picture Predictions - 2019

[Eric Duncan]

I said this before, but my concern with Little Women isn't it being adapted so many times and more on Sony trying to juggle so many movies. They haven't had a movie get a BP nom since 2013, and Sony has two other contenders, both of which have strong reviews and will be in the conversation longer,.One has great box office, while the other one is looking to do the same. Just feels like one of these movies will get the short stick, and this seems like the one.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Eric! said:

I said this before, but my concern with Little Women isn't it being adapted so many times and more on Sony trying to juggle so many movies. They haven't had a movie get a BP nom since 2013, and Sony has two other contenders, both of which have strong reviews and will be in the conversation longer,.One has great box office, while the other one is looking to do the same. Just feels like one of these movies will get the short stick, and this seems like the one.

Honestly with the way the race is thinning out already (RIP Jojo Rabbit) I wouldn't rule out the possibility of someone managing to get multiple contenders in. We'll just have to wait and see.

[TMP]

Jojo is out and Joker is IN

[lorddemaxus]

1 hour ago, TalismanRing said:

Currently, I don't see it winning lots of critics award leading into Oscar (except for Phoenix) which is a big part of any Oscar campaign and there have been a lot of high quality films coming out of these festivals this year. 

 

Though I'm still scratching my head about it's inclusion BR was a $900m behemoth "fun movie"  that most importantly appealed to the older demos of the Academy.

I think it's going to do really well in the Globes, Critics Choice awards, and guild awards. Might not do as well in critics circle award ceremonies but I think all those other awards are just as important precursors.

 

And the competition is dying out. I can see it get in.

Edited September 10, 2019 by lorddemaxus

[RealLyre]

1.Parasite

2.Marriage Story

3.Joker

4.Little Women

5. Ford v Ferrari

6. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

7. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

8.The Irishman (kinda skeptical about this as nothing in it looked too interesting for me personally except the effects but it's Marty so it'll probably be good)

 

 

 

[Valonqar]

I think that Joker should aim at Picture nom and Phoenix win. I don't think they'll award a funnybook movie but Phoenix has a legit shot. 

 

@RealLyre Good list though I think Farewell has a good chance to take one of those spots, most likely Little Women or Irishman (since they aren't seen and therefore more iffy than movies that are). Also, Little Women need to be total slamdunk to crash the race so late when all other movies already positioned themselves (it comes out on Xmas) 

[Cmasterclay]

So I think with Telluride and Toronto past....I've rounded back into Once Upon a Time in Hollywood being the frontrunner. Seems to check the most boxes, from being a contender both above and below the line to the genre elements to being a commercial hit. The big caveat here is I have heard now from three sources I trust that Little Women is really great and potentially a nomination hog, and outside of the remake element, that seems to check a shit ton of boxes as well while also potentially not being left off as many ballots as Hollywood. I have those two as frontrunners. I have Marriage Story, Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, and Parasite as confidently nominated. I feel pretty good now that Ford v Ferrari and Two Popes are gonna be there, but maybe one of them First Mans it. I have Farewell eight and Joker as a potential ninth, but very unsure about that - could just as easily be Irishman/1917/Queen and Slim, or Knives Out, or Clemency/The Report, or something else entirely. Way too early to call those last few spots.

Edited September 12, 2019 by Cmasterclay

[stripe]

On 9/9/2019 at 6:13 PM, Valonqar said:

is this a joke? How's Marriage Story with 95 MC a maybe while Jojo with 45 is in the running? 

 

Well, when I wrote this jojo first reviews weren't that mild. Obviously, it's almost out of the race now.

 

regarding Marriage Story, it's from Netflix. There are a lot of examples of praised Netflix films that didn't receive AMPAS support. Thematically and visually, it lacks the auterish flavour of Roma. I can perfectly picture an scenario where Marriage Story gets two acting noms and screenplay but non BP nom.

[Valonqar]

4 hours ago, stripe said:

 

Well, when I wrote this jojo first reviews weren't that mild. Obviously, it's almost out of the race now.

 

regarding Marriage Story, it's from Netflix. There are a lot of examples of praised Netflix films that didn't receive AMPAS support. Thematically and visually, it lacks the auterish flavour of Roma. I can perfectly picture an scenario where Marriage Story gets two acting noms and screenplay but non BP nom.

Ah, OK, makes sense. And Jojo is recovering on RT so maybe middlebrow audience goes for it. It seems that it's a very safe movie, at least that's what reviews say. Some audacious humor aside, the movie is as safe as it gets.

[filmlover]

Yeah, Jojo has recovered a bit (even if it's still at a 51 with 20 reviews on MC) but if I had to guess just won't be making a splash with the Academy. Which is fine. It's not The Goldfinch or Lucy in the Sky, which seem to be the big busts at TIFF this year.

[lorddemaxus]

18 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Yeah, Jojo has recovered a bit (even if it's still at a 51 with 20 reviews on MC) but if I had to guess just won't be making a splash with the Academy. Which is fine. It's not The Goldfinch or Lucy in the Sky, which seem to be the big busts at TIFF this year.

Eh, I would consider Jojo to be more dissapointing considering that it was hyped up to be a big awards player while on the other hand there was already a lot of talk that The Goldfinch is terrible (and didn't so well in test screenings) and don't think Lucy in the Sky was really hyped up either (I even said a month ago that Disney had no faith in it and is just dumping it on a crappy date).

[filmlover]

TIFF recap:

 

Winners:

Netflix (Marriage Story, The Two Popes, Dolemite is My Name)

A24 (Uncut Gems, Waves, The Lighthouse)

Hustlers

Just Mercy

Tom Hanks

Joaquin Phoenix

Renee Zellweger

 

Losers:

The Goldfinch

Lucy in the Sky

The market (no big sales this year)

 

https://variety.com/2019/film/news/toronto-film-festival-winners-losers-1203333732/

[RealLyre]

Marriage Story winning at TIFF would solidify its best picture chances. but I have a feeling that would go to something more crowd-pleasing (Knives Out, The Two Popes or Ford v Ferrari, or even WAVES).

 

[stripe]

When will we know the winners at TIFF?

[CoolioD1]

13 minutes ago, stripe said:

When will we know the winners at TIFF?

sunday

[Valonqar]

17 hours ago, RealLyre said:

Marriage Story winning at TIFF would solidify its best picture chances. but I have a feeling that would go to something more crowd-pleasing (Knives Out, The Two Popes or Ford v Ferrari, or even WAVES).

 

yeah, I can't imagine crowd voting for Marriage Story as their favorite no matter how good it may be. I'd say the likeliest are Parasite, Popes, Knives, Jojo, Waves (please make Taylor Russell happen!)  and I think Hustlers would be in the conversation had it not come out this weekend. they usually don't vote for movies already in release during the voting process but stranger things happened. 

Edited September 13, 2019 by Valonqar

[CoolioD1]

reviews are less than what i expected but decent enough that i'm keeping jojo rabbit in my predictions at the lower end. though if fox searchlight give up on it they might be able to get A Hidden Life a best picture nomination. i could see Terrence Malick randomly sneaking in for best director.

[lorddemaxus]

8 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

reviews are less than what i expected but decent enough that i'm keeping jojo rabbit in my predictions at the lower end.

I wouldn't say it's decent enough for a BP nom. It would be the second worst rated movie on metacritic to be nominated for BP since Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and it doesn't have a Malek type performance (I didn't even find it so good but seems like it resonated with a lot of people) and insane popularity that Bohemian Rhapsody had.

[filmlover]

Jojo Rabbit's biggest hurdle at this point is if anyone will actually see it (given how much specialty movies lacking in immediate awards buzz or have come up well short of expectations have been faring recently, the odds aren't looking too great). Won't be surprised if this ends up another 2016 where Fox Searchlight just sits out from the Best Picture race, although it's looking like they won't have any major acting plays like Portman in Jackie was that year either.

Edited September 13, 2019 by filmlover

[Valonqar]

it's interesting that Marriage Story remains the best reviewed movie from the festivals (Parasite aside but that's foreign language)while simultaneously not called the front runner. It may be a good thing for peaking too early is something movies like to avoid (see ASIB). 

Edited September 13, 2019 by Valonqar