Best Picture Predictions - 2019

[Cmasterclay]

Bombshell is apparently screening tonight to press and public with no embargo - they seem really confident. Little Women starts screening October 23rd with the same kind of non-festival rollout - also indicates some strong confidence for the movie I think people are underestimating as a real contender not just to get noms, but win the whole damn thing. Queen and Slim is already getting positive notices ahead of AFI, so Jewell and 1917 (and Cats!) are the only ones that are sight unseen by October 23rd. 

 

One more update

 

Picture

1. Little Women

2. Once Upon A Time in Hollywood

3. Parasite

4. Marriage Story

5. The Irishman

6. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

7. Jojo Rabbit

8. Bombshell

9. The Farewell

Next up: Ford v. Ferrari, 1917, Joker, Queen and Slim.

 

Director

1. Quentin Tarantino

2. Martin Scorsese

3. Bong Joon-Ho

4. Noah Bauchaum

5. Greta Gerwig

Next up: Marienne Heller, Sam Mendes, Taika Waititi

 

Actor

1. Adam Driver

2. Joaquin Phoenix

3. Robert De Niro

4. Leonardo DiCaprio

5. Eddie Murphy!!

Next up: Antonio Banderas, Jonathan Pryce, Taron Egerton (don't sleep on this), Mark Ruffalo, Adam Sandler

 

Actress

1. Renee Zellwegger

2. Scarlett Johnannson

3. Charlize Theron

4. Saoirse Ronan

5. Cynthia Ervio

Next up: Jodie Turner Smith, Awkwafina, Lupita Nyong'o, Alfre Woodard

 

Supporting Actor

1. Brad Pitt

2. Al Pacino

3. Tom Hanks

4. Anthony Hopkins

5. Joe Pesci

Next up: Song Kang-Ho, Willem Dafoe, Jamie Foxx, John Lithgow, Sam Rockwell

 

Supporting Actress

1. Laura Dern

2. Jennifer Lopez

3. Thomasin Mcenzkie

4. Zhao Shuzen

5. Margot Robbie (not sure which one tbh)

Next up: Meryl Streep, Florence Pugh, Scarlett Johannson, Nicole Kidman

 

 

 

[Jake Gittes]

My feeling rn is that Johansson will have a resurgence once Marriage Story is released and take Best Actress in the end. Also I've read enough descriptions of De Niro's character/performance in The Irishman as passive (by design, but still) that I wouldn't be at all surprised if he doesn't get nominated.

 

I sure would like it if Phoenix, the best actor of the decade, didn't win for the worst performance I've seen him give in it, but hey that's just the way the Oscars roll. 

Edited October 13, 2019 by Jake Gittes

[TMP]

1 hour ago, Jake Gittes said:

I sure would like it if Phoenix, the best actor of the decade, didn't win for the worst performance I've seen him give in it, but hey that's just the way the Oscars roll. 

Worse than Jesus?

[Jake Gittes]

1 hour ago, TMP said:

Worse than Jesus?

That's why I specified heh. But then, did anyone see that movie?

[TMP]

5 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

That's why I specified heh. But then, did anyone see that movie?

At least we got this from it

[Jake Gittes]

14 minutes ago, TMP said:

At least we got this from it

Iconic. They should have turned that into a movie.

[stripe]

Bombshell reactions are great, praising the cast performances, specially Theron.

 

We have another contender in the menu guys!

[titanic2187]

1 hour ago, stripe said:

Bombshell reactions are great, praising the cast performances, specially Theron.

 

We have another contender in the menu guys!

Next Hidden figure ?

[Ezen Baklattan]

If reviews turn out to be as strong as hoped for, I could legitimately see Bombshell go all the way and win Picture. It has social relevance, loved actors, and a solid connection to a previous frontrunner (The Big Short). Will keep an eye on this one.

[The Panda]

21 hours ago, Spaghetti said:

If reviews turn out to be as strong as hoped for, I could legitimately see Bombshell go all the way and win Picture. It has social relevance, loved actors, and a solid connection to a previous frontrunner (The Big Short). Will keep an eye on this one.

Yeah, if Vice got in, could definitely see something like Bombshell getting in if well-received

[filmlover]

It would be nutty if Best Actress shaped up to be a race between Theron and Zellweger (the Lead/Supporting Actress winners of 2003) with Johansson (one of the big snubs of that year for her Lost in Translation/The Girl with the Pearl Earring combo) in the mix. What year is it, indeed.

Edited October 16, 2019 by filmlover

[Eric the Minion]

https://deadline.com/2019/10/gotham-awards-nominations-2019-full-list-1202766912/

 

Gotham Awards are here. Being focused on indies, they aren't to be super taken seriously, but they're still good enough indicators

 

Quote

BEST FEATURE

The Farewell
Hustlers
Marriage Story
Uncut Gems
Waves

 

BEST ACTOR

Willem Dafoe - The Lighthouse (A24)

Adam Driver - Marriage Story (Netflix)

Aldis Hodge  - Clemency (NEON)

André Holland - High Flying Bird (Netflix)

Adam Sandler - Uncut Gems (A24)

 

BEST ACTRESS

Awkwafina - The Farewell (A24)

Elisabeth Moss - Her Smell (Gunpowder & Sky)

Mary Kay Place - Diane (IFC Films)

Florence Pugh - Midsommar (A24)

Alfre Woodard - Clemency (NEON)

 

BEST SCREENPLAY

The Farewell - Lulu Wang (A24)

High Flying Bird - Tarell Alvin McCraney (Netflix)

The Last Black Man in San Francisco - Jimmie Fails, Joe Talbot, Rob Richert (A24)

Marriage Story - Noah Baumbach (Netflix)

Midsommar - Ari Aster (A24)

 

[RealLyre]

2 minutes ago, Eric loves Rey said:

 

BEST ACTRESS

Florence Pugh - Midsommar (A24)

 

haven't seen all the noms but this is probably the most deserved. Pugh was insanely great. if she wins it would mark the 2nd Ari Aster film to get the gotham award for best actress. (Toni Collette won for Hereditary last year).

 

 

 

Hustlers getting a best feature nom is interesting, also I wouldn't worry about ScarJo missing an actress nod here, Colman was absent last year as well (despite the favorite getting multiple nods) then went on to win in February  

 

 

[TMP]

8 minutes ago, Eric loves Rey said:

https://deadline.com/2019/10/gotham-awards-nominations-2019-full-list-1202766912/

 

Gotham Awards are here. Being focused on indies, they aren't to be super taken seriously, but they're still good enough indicators

 

 

A24 is campaigning DaFriend for supporting, and with Bale now going lead could bode good things.

[RealLyre]

4 minutes ago, TMP said:

A24 is campaigning DaFriend for supporting, and with Bale now going lead could bode good things.

A24 should focus their campaigns for the Farewell.  the Lighthouse will likely end up with 0 industry nods almost everywhere (except maybe with critics awards).

[Valonqar]

Gothams don't mean shit for AMPAS due to low overlap but it's a good news for movies and actors with AMPAS aspirations that are not just Gotham thing. Such as Marriage Story and The Farewell.

 

@RealLyre Agreed, they should push the fuck out of The Farewell especially Actress and Supporting Actress for those categories are still open.

[lorddemaxus]

2 hours ago, TMP said:

A24 is campaigning DaFriend for supporting, and with Bale now going lead could bode good things.

Too bad Disney put down both Bale and Damon as leads. They're gonna split the votes.

[TMP]

1 minute ago, lorddemaxus said:

Too bad Disney put down both Bale and Damon as leads. They're gonna split the votes.

If Pitt can be frauded to supporting, surely Bale could have too

[Jake Gittes]

Quote

 

BEST ACTOR

André Holland - High Flying Bird (Netflix)

 

yessss

 

Quote

 

BEST ACTRESS

Elisabeth Moss - Her Smell (Gunpowder & Sky)

 

YESSSSSSSSSSS. the oscars have nothing on this. 

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Too bad Disney put down both Bale and Damon as leads. They're gonna split the votes.

Perhaps it was the request of both of them that they be in Lead. It happens. Last year it was apparently Olivia Colman's request to be put in Lead instead of Supporting (a move that ended up paying off obviously).