Weekend Thread: Friday Estimate | LEGO MOVIE 2 $8.5M | WHAT MEN WANT $6.6M | COLD PURSUIT $ 3.64M | THE PRODIGY $2.02M

[Shivampa]

1 minute ago, romancechemicalsWW12 said:

What do most of the people do?  What are their interests?  Are they allowed to see whatever movies they can?  Are they interested in movies?

Most people spend time with their families. 

 

There are not many cinema hall in India so their is a restriction for many. 

 

People usually watch movies when they come on television or with piracy. Most of the stuff in India is pirated. 

[Brainbug]

Great year so far.

 

Spoiler

For my studies. F*ck the box office though lol.

 

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, romancechemicalsWW12 said:

U,S, is about population 320.  Was Baahubali pretty evenly distributed in India?  Do you know about how much of the 1320 population have cell phones, free internet and YouTube access?

USA + Canada is 360. Baahubali 2 was the first film in a long time to cater to the whole of India. Cinema culture is poor in North India but very good in the South, said that the North or Hindi belt contributed 55mn out of 1050mn while the South India contributed same number out of 270mn.

 

8 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

Population is not the best metric here. You should compare number of available screens in these markets.

That also I did, Wandering Earth 6 days will have 675k shows compared to 325-350k approx that TFA and Infinity War had in US.

 

 

[IronJimbo]

9 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Great year so far.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

For my studies. F*ck the box office though lol.

 

hope Lego tanks so people take their kids to see Alita!
 

Very soon everyone. Weekend thread is hijacked by the Cameron gang.

[salvador-232]

1 hour ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

This ain't the best figures of all time. Besides TFA had $363mn in its 6 days and since the $275mn of Wandering Earth include ticket booking charges as well, the actual gross will be $255mn Approx. That's $108mn less than TFA and $68mn less than Avengers: Infinity War.

 

Also Wandering Earth took almost 670k shows for $255mn compared to roughly 350k for TFA and Infinity War. And elephant in the room, China has 1450mn people, NA has what? 400? 

But China avge ticket price is much lower. I remember that Coco had 34 million admissions in China against like 20 estimated on the US and grossed nearly 20 M USD less.

 

Edit: Already covered lol. Anyway, you are forgetting Canada in Na jaja. One just can't expect other countries to have the same moviegoing culture of the US. 

 

 

Besides, China has a lot of screens but do they cover all the population? In Chile for example less than 60% of the population has a Cinema nearby... 

Edited February 9, 2019 by salvador-232

[Zakiyyah6]

31 minutes ago, Shivampa said:

I think Captain Marvel will also underperform... 

 

130M/325M

WW:800M at Max

 

It is an origin story of character which have never appeared before. 

 

Aquaman: Justice League 

 

Wonder Woman: BvS

 

Black Panther: Civil War 

 

Stop overpredicting Captain Marvel.. It will do fine. People are having very high expectations here. 

On what planet did the horribly received BvS help Wonder Woman and the poorly received Justice League help Aquaman? Not arguing against your prediction because it's fine but do we have to do the revisionist history thing?

 

Also why do people always freak out like this. Lego Movie's box office has zero barring on Captain Marvel's one way or the other. And no everything will not underperforman just because certain films are. 

[a2k]

Smallfoot did 214 WW. Wonder if Lego2 gets there. With 34 ow it needs 3.53x to get to 120 Dom, compared to Lego1's 3.73x. Let's say it does that.

 

Then needs 94 OS to get to 214 WW. That OS seems very conservative at first but that's a Dom-OS ratio of 56-44 using 120 Dom. Lego Batman did 56-44 Dom-OS too. And one can easily envision something like 115 Dom + 90 OS = 205 WW (again 56-44 Dom-OS).

 

Lego2 may well beat Smallfoot WW but it's WW is locked to go under Lego1 Dom.

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:

hope Lego tanks so people take their kids to see Alita!
 

Very soon everyone. Weekend thread is hijacked by the Cameron gang.

Alita is looking like a ghost town at my local cinema today (UK). 

 

10 showings and the busiest showing is maybe 30% full. 

 

I’m going to see it on Monday. 

Edited February 9, 2019 by Krissykins

[lorddemaxus]

1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:

hope Lego tanks so people take their kids to see Alita!
 

Very soon everyone. Weekend thread is hijacked by the Cameron gang.

The Lego Movie 2 will lose less money than Alita either way. And parents aren't going to watch the super-violent Alita (for kids).  They would rather wait to watch HTTYD 2.

Edited February 9, 2019 by lorddemaxus

[marveldcfox]

18 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Alita is looking like a ghost town at my local cinema today (UK). 

 

10 showings and the busiest showing is maybe 30% full. 

 

I’m going to see it on Monday. 

Expected. UK critics trashed it completely. The movie will do decent business in South East Asia only.

[Marathon]

I don't suppose there's a chance TLM2's worldwide total comes under the first one's overseas gross ($211.4m), which would be a ridiculous outcome considering these Lego movies, with maybe the exception of anglophone countries, have posted generally underwhelming numbers overseas.

[YM!]

This may be my Lego Movie 2 depression talking but  I feel animation and family films will underperform this year. Outside of The Lion King and Frozen 2, I think no animated film will go over $325M and a lot underperforming (TS4, Pets 2, Dragon 3), and no family film (PikaPika and Aladdin (the latter will also underperform)) as well mainly due how packed the schedule. Hell those two may barely cross $600M and $400M respectively. It may be 2011/2017 all over again. 

 

Something like:

Dragon 3 Under $140M

Wonder Park O/U Sherlock Gnomes

Dumbo and Shazam! sub $200M

Missing Link Under Kubo

Uglydolls sub $30M

Pikachu Under $300M

Aladdin Under $200M

Pets 2 Under $275M

TS4 Under $300M

TLK sub $600M

AB2 Under Emoji

SID Under $60M

Abonimable Under Smallfoot

Frozen 2 Under $400M

Edited February 9, 2019 by YourMother the Edgelord

[Taruseth]

4 minutes ago, Marathon said:

I don't suppose there's a chance TLM2's worldwide total comes under the first one's overseas gross ($211.4m), which would be a ridiculous outcome considering these Lego movies, with maybe the exception of anglophone countries, have posted generally underwhelming numbers overseas.

Well. I think it could happen, but we shouldn't forget that Solo grossed less than half WW than what TFA grossed in the US.

Or one could say, that the gross in Uk, China and Ger (180, 125, 111) is more than Solo's WW (Actually 25M more than Solo)

So sometimes those crazy things happen.

[Blaze Heatnix]

No CinemaScores this weekend?

 

Miss Bala's CinemaScore was added like 2 days ago. 

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

No CinemaScores this weekend?

the sample size was too small 

[MCKillswitch123]

Wow, what a horrendous weekend. Lego 2 isn't even locked to hit 200M WW anymore. That's tragic.

 

Upside (which is guaranteed to hit 100M DOM with that hold), Escape Room and Broly have been the only bright spots amongst the new releases (and the holdovers from 2018 have done okay, especially Aquaman and Spider-Verse....... and Green Book, to an extent). Otherwise, underperformer after bomb after underperformer after bomb. Yikes.

Edited February 9, 2019 by MCKillswitch123

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Wow, what a horrendous weekend. Lego 2 isn't even locked to hit 200M WW anymore. That's tragic.

 

Upside (which is guaranteed to hit 100M DOM with that hold), Escape Room and Broly have been the only bright spots amongst the new releases (and the holdovers from 2018 have done okay, especially Aquaman and Spider-Verse....... and Green Book, to an extent). Otherwise, underperformer after bomb after underperformer after bomb. Yikes.

And 5x multiplier, with a shade above 101M. Better multiplier than the leggy Bucket List 12 years back.

[TMP]

30 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

This may be my Lego Movie 2 depression talking but  I feel animation and family films will underperform this year. Outside of The Lion King and Frozen 2, I think no animated film will go over $325M and a lot underperforming (TS4, Pets 2, Dragon 3), and no family film (PikaPika and Aladdin (the latter will also underperform)) as well mainly due how packed the schedule. Hell those two may barely cross $600M and $400M respectively. It may be 2011/2017 all over again. 

 

Something like:

Dragon 3 Under $140M

Wonder Park O/U Sherlock Gnomes

Dumbo and Shazam! sub $200M

Missing Link Under Kubo

Uglydolls sub $30M

Pikachu Under $300M

Aladdin Under $200M

Pets 2 Under $275M

TS4 Under $300M

TLK sub $600M

AB2 Under Emoji

SID Under $60M

Abonimable Under Smallfoot

Frozen 2 Under $400M

Pikachu isn’t going under $400m dom. 

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, marveldcfox said:

Expected. UK critics trashed it completely. The movie will do decent business in South East Asia only.

It did open on Wednesday so maybe it was a bit busier midweek. 

[Valonqar]

29 minutes ago, TMP said:

Pikachu isn’t going under $400m dom. 

Yep. It's annoying that we Pika believers are treated like a joke for seeing potential for enormous breakout but Pika's not going under 400M dom and under 1B WW so that's that.