CAPTAIN MARVEL WEEKEND THREAD l $153M DOM (3rd-biggest March opening), $455M WW (6th biggest WW opening) l Other weekend #s: Dragon 14.7, Madea 12, Lego 3.8, Alita 3.2

[RealLyre]

1 minute ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

If anyone dares to cry foul at this number, I'm gonna laugh. It's RIGHT IN THE FUCKING DHD ESTIMATE. (Sure, raising hopes of something like 24 and then it's 20.7 is kinda annoying, but still, that number is huge nonetheless.)

based on pre-sales data it's pretty disappointing, OW won't go higher than 155M and dom total under 400M. still good numbers but the crazy pre-sales in last week got us too excited.

 

 

[Lordmandeep]

1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said:

A month ago I thought CM would have an unusually high DOM:OS ratio. Looks like it will be pretty typical after all. Very early still, but I guess aiming for around CW DOM, OS, WW.

 

 

Yeah IW really helping out CM overseas I think. 

[TalismanRing]

6 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Suicide Squad opened in early August.

It also had that huge ticket promotion for opening day that heavily skewed the w/e. 

[DAJK]

Thinking this does around 60-61M Friday, and about 153M for the weekend. Pretty much where I expected it to land, if anyone remembers my post in the tracking thread yesterday.

 

Still, looking like 400M will (most likely) happen. And what which 700M OS looking like a real possibility, this can still challenge Aquaman worldwide, but it'll he hard IMO. 

[Mekanos]

Just now, RealLyre said:

based on pre-sales data it's pretty disappointing, OW won't go higher than 155M and dom total under 400M. still good numbers but the crazy pre-sales in last week got us too excited.

 

 

How does it miss 400M with a 150-155M weekend...? 

[sfran43]

 

[Lordmandeep]

Are people really seeing a 2.5 multiplier for a female centric comic book film? 

[TwoMisfits]

5 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

Dont see a path where it goes much below 150 million at this point. 

I don't know - I think the preview "almost" (b/c I'll never say totally) guarantees $125M...but $150M will still need a little more data to get that certain...$150M is likely, but there are paths it goes under, even just using past Marvel history...

Edited March 8, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[RealLyre]

1 minute ago, Mekanos said:

How does it miss 400M with a 150-155M weekend...? 

it's gonna be more frontloaded than usual MCU solos cus of its connection to IW/EG , legs will be close to CW imo.

 

 

[Lordmandeep]

Just now, RealLyre said:

it's gonna be more frontloaded than usual MCU solos cus of its connection to IW/EG , legs will be close to CW imo.

 

 

 

Do we as a forum forget that Infinity War actually had good legs? 

 

2.65 multiplier. 

 

 

[HouseOfTheSun]

6 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

A month ago I thought CM would have an unusually high DOM:OS ratio. Looks like it will be pretty typical after all. Very early still, but I guess aiming for around CW DOM, OS, WW.

420m domestic, 690m OS 

[Mekanos]

Just now, RealLyre said:

it's gonna be more frontloaded than usual MCU solos cus of its connection to IW/EG , legs will be close to CW imo.

 

 

It's a solo debut with a heavy female audience. There is no way it has CW-esque legs.

[TalismanRing]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

I don't know - I think the preview probably "almost" (b/c I'll never say totally) guarantees $125M...but $150M will still need a little more data to get that certain...$150M is likely, but there are paths it goes under, even just using past Marvel history...

Under $150, possible but there are no paths to a 6 multi and $125 using MCU history

[KJsooner]

3 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

Are people really seeing a 2.5 multiplier for a female centric comic book film? 

Yes would fall in line with most MCU films. Most MCU movies have a 2.5-2.8 multiplier. 

[a2k]

3 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

it's gonna be more frontloaded than usual MCU solos cus of its connection to IW/EG , legs will be close to CW imo.

 

 

imo 2.65x is the floor when it comes to legs while if reception is good can match smh's 2.86x.

2.65-2.75x gives 397.5-412.5 with 150 ow. even on that lower end a push to 400 will happen.

 

can't be more front-loaded than a mega-opener sequel like gotg2 which did 2.66x.

Edited March 8, 2019 by a2k

[terrestrial]

2 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

got us too excited

there is no 100% us on the world (not to take too seriously, but 10 people in a room? Probably 20 opinions)

(I only believe in final numbers, are happy with in between released numbers, never really care for forecasts,... only for providing a link it to ppl that actually want to read those, be happy about it)

[Mekanos]

Just now, KJsooner said:

Yes would fall in line with most MCU films. Most MCU movies have a 2.5-2.8 multiplier. 

Except you're factoring sequels into the equation.

 

I don't have a list on hand but I'm pretty sure the only solo debut to go below 2.7x is TIH.

[CJohn]

Barely did 20M with 6 PM previews? Lmao FLOP.

[ThomasNicole]

4 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

it's gonna be more frontloaded than usual MCU solos cus of its connection to IW/EG , legs will be close to CW imo.

 

 

Again, this isn’t CW.

 

Even with the IW post credit scene, CM is still a original movie, with basically no competition until EG and with great early reception (also CW have a bad WOM, which doesn’t seem the case here). There’s nothing really inflating CM OW, she doesn’t even appear in EG marketing. 

 

I agreed this isn’t touching 3x, but should perform like the others first MCU movies, so around 2.6 - 2.7

[Alli]

Just now, CJohn said:

Barely did 20M with 6 PM previews? Lmao FLOP.

i think previews started at 7