US WEEKEND THREAD: Record 70.25 OW (highest grossing OW for an original horror)

[RealLyre]

3 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

Using that preview #...

 

If it follows A Quiet Place:

6.75M

29.6M inc. previews

30M

19.2M

78.8M

I was told in the tracking thread that it was impossible for this movie to open under $80M so 78M would be a let down .

 

 

Thursday needs to be 7M-8M minimum 

[YLF]

Can we wait until we get actual numbers before being snarky? Yikes. It might underperform, it might over perform. Only time will tell. Its been trending for what 3 hours now on twitter? it rose up from trending between 5-8 to being number 1 in the US. Thats pretty good for an original movie. The WOM will only catch on. There is more positive buzz than negative for the movie. 

[Krissykins]

3 hours ago, That One Guy said:

Alright can we stop panicking now lol

You’re the one who started it. 

37 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

I was told in the tracking thread that it was impossible for this movie to open under $80M so 78M would be a let down .

 

 

Thursday needs to be 7M-8M minimum 

Don’t believe everything you read in the tracking thread. Actual tracking was $38-45m yesterday. 

8 minutes ago, YLF said:

Can we wait until we get actual numbers before being snarky? Yikes. It might underperform, it might over perform. Only time will tell. Its been trending for what 3 hours now on twitter? it rose up from trending between 5-8 to being number 1 in the US. Thats pretty good for an original movie. The WOM will only catch on. There is more positive buzz than negative for the movie. 

With $4m, it still wouldn’t be an underperformance in terms of tracking. Presale guesses on here, maybe, but that would be it. 

[RealLyre]

15 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

 

Don’t believe everything you read in the tracking thread. Actual tracking was $38-45m yesterday. 

With $4m, it still wouldn’t be an underperformance in terms of tracking. Presale guesses on here, maybe, but that would be it. 

we should start subtracting 10M-20M from the Fandango pre-sales comps  as presales in general are getting heavier every year.

 

iirc CM was outpacing BP in the last few days on Fandango and didn't open anywhere close.

 

 

 

[Boxofficerules]

Seeing this soon

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, RealLyre said:

we should start subtracting 10M-20M from the Fandango pre-sales comps  as presales in general are getting heavier every year.

 

iirc CM was outpacing BP in the last few days on Fandango and didn't open anywhere close.

 

 

 

It's going to be like that more and more. Especially for just good movies without excellent WOM. Huge spectacle type films will do awesome in the first week and crash down quickly after. 

[a2k]

...

Edited March 22, 2019 by a2k
RT score in FLUX

[Premium George]

1 hour ago, RealLyre said:

we should start subtracting 10M-20M from the Fandango pre-sales comps  as presales in general are getting heavier every year.

 

iirc CM was outpacing BP in the last few days on Fandango and didn't open anywhere close.

 

 

 

In last few days, but not in cumulative. CM opened right where fandago presells were pointing at. Going by single day of presells is wrong specially for movies that have more than 1 week of advance presells. 

US, definitely pointed towards $7-$8m previews, so $6m would be a underperformance by presells.

[Premium George]

2 hours ago, Krissykins said:

You’re the one who started it. 

Don’t believe everything you read in the tracking thread. Actual tracking was $38-45m yesterday. 

With $4m, it still wouldn’t be an underperformance in terms of tracking. Presale guesses on here, maybe, but that would be it. 

Our tracking thread has been much closer than industry tracking this year to actual openings. 

[Krissykins]

16 minutes ago, a2k said:

US starts at 62% on RT Audience . But just 44 ratings. 

It’s not worth checking anymore. Hasn’t been for about 2 years. They’ll probably just delete it soon. 

 

11 minutes ago, Premium George said:

Our tracking thread has been much closer than industry tracking this year to actual openings. 

Maybe just not for this film then. 

 

Although we don’t know what the real preview number actually is yet, and won’t for about 6 hours. 

[Avatree]

I love how every time a film comes out that appeals to the film nerds of this board, ridiculous 100M predictions get thrown around.

[Litio]

Reposting:

 

40.055k 2018-10-18 THU Halloween ($7.7m)

 

28.191k   2018-09-06 THU The Nun ($5.4m)

 

44.337k  2019-03-21 THU   Us

 

Both comparisons would lead US previews numbers close to $8.5m, but it depends on how many theaters they were played on thursday. I believe US had a lower number of theaters. $8m looks a good target.

 

Extra

 

119.526k total sales for Captain Marvel on previews (including all formats) ($20.7m)

 

That would mean $7.68m for US.

 

Very curious if these comparisons mean something.

[Deep Wang]

I have no idea why I'm surprised that some BOT members are calling $6m in previews disappointing.

 

Yes, I know you are saying its disappointing relative of presales, but it's still a non-sequel, we can't just assume all the tickets were bought for Thursday night.  

[terrestrial]

Quote

US ...... but its reviews are amazing and many critics say it demands repeat viewing. Because of this, it could have good legs, especially for a horror film. It should also get off to a fast start. Tracking and buzz suggests it will top $50 million during its opening weekend and I’m going with a prediction of $54 million. I would be disappointed if it didn’t reach $50 million, while I would only be a little surprised if it cracked $60 million.

Captain Marvel will be next, likely with close to $34 million. The film already has over $280 million domestically, so even if it misses expectations by a significant margin, it will still blow past $300 million, becoming the 13th installment in the MCU to get to that milestone. Additionally, it wouldn’t have to beat expectations by a lot to be on pace to cross $400 million domestically.

Wonder Park should hold up the best out of last week’s new releases. It is a family film and there’s no direct competition. However, its reviews will scare away some families and it only managed a B plus from CinemaScore, which is very weak for a family film. Because of that, there’s a chance it will fall more than 50%, but I think it will avoid that earning just over $9 million over the weekend, which would be a decline of barely more than 40%.

Five Feet Apart won’t hold on as well, but it should still top its $7 million opening during its second weekend of release with just over $7 million. It is on pace to hit $25 million, either late Sunday or early Monday.

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World will round out the top fice with about $6 million. The film will have no trouble getting to $150 million domestically, but it will have to wait till next week to get there

https://www.the-numbers.com/news/237720830-Weekend-Predictions-Us-will-be-Lonely-at-the-Top

[Blaze Heatnix]

Is Us getting a good CinemaScore?

 

I still have to watch it, but several friends have said the third act is weird and stupid or something like that.

[That One Girl]

4 hours ago, Krissykins said:

You’re the one who started it. 

 

If you actually read the thread, I’m the one saying that people should wait for the actual numbers lol.  If I was panicking, then I wouldn’t still be confident in it doing huge numbers this weekend

[That One Girl]

6 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

Is Us getting a good CinemaScore?

 

I still have to watch it, but several friends have said the third act is weird and stupid or something like that.

 

Hard to tell at this point.  My audience was sold out and was fully sold on the third act and clapped at the end, but there do seem to be some people that don’t have a crowd that’s as enthusiastic.  I think it’ll get somewhere around a B or a B- only because it’s a horror movie, but I doubt it has legs that indicate toxic WOM.

[4815162342]

17 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

I have no idea why I'm surprised that some BOT members are calling $6m in previews disappointing.

 

 

Especially since this movie will more than make back its production budget before the weekend is even over.

 

 

[Deep Wang]

Just now, 4815162342 said:

 

Especially since this movie will more than make back its production budget before the weekend is even over.

 

 

 

US: $60m opening weekend

 

BOT: ugh, what a terrible weekend, I can't believe it only tripled its budget!

[Legion Again]

4 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

US: $60m opening weekend

 

BOT: ugh, what a terrible weekend, I can't believe it only tripled its budget!

Feasby promised me an OW of at least 4x the budget, and anything below that is a shocking failure, no ifs, ands, or buts