Weekend Thread: weekend #s (Actuals) Dumbo $45.99M, Us $33.23M, CM $20.66M

[Nova]

If that $45M+ number holds, that’s right about where I had it on Monday ($40-$50M range) based on how it was selling at my theater. 

[Brainbug]

2nd Update, Friday Midday: Disney’s Dumbo is flying in lower than the $50M-plus tracking expected with an estimated $46M-$49M weekend off a $15M first day, not what we typically expect from the uber event Disney live action remakes of its toon vault (meaning, the bigger branded animated classics like Maleficent, Cinderella). Critics have whipped Jumbo Jr. hard at 55% on Rotten Tomatoes. A lot can change for this $170M-budgeted pic (not counting global P&A) by tomorrow with matinees.

 

Universal’s Us is looking at $32M, a nice -55% hold, with Friday at $9M sending the Jordan Peele-directed horror pic past $100M today. By Sunday Us will stand at $126.6M. Get Out ended its domestic run at $176M.

 

Disney’s Captain Marvel, hear her roar with a fourth weekend of $20M, -42% at 3,985 locations. This would put Ms. Marvel at $353.3M by Sunday.

PureFlix’s controversial anti-abortion drama Unplanned doing better than the low single digits expected with $6.5M this weekend after an opening day of $2.5M which includes $700K in previews.

 

Bleecker Street/ShivHans’ Hotel Mumbai goes wide today from four NY/LA sites last week to 924 theaters. $900K today with $250K from last night’s shows, heading to a $2.5m second weekend.

NEON’s The Beach Bum looks to smoke $600K today, including revised previews of $175K from last night, for a $1.7M three-day. Movie has 50% Rotten Tomatoes score while Hotel Mumbai‘s is 73% fresh.

[HouseOfTheSun]

Just now, Nova said:

If that $45M+ number holds, that’s right about where I had it on Monday ($40-$50M range) based on how it was selling at my theater. 

Eyaballing it around me, looks like around 50 just based on sales. 

[TalismanRing]

8 minutes ago, The Panda said:

Then why did US open to 70m+ and seems to be having strong legs.

 

I also didn’t count Fox Searchlight or sub-studios that release the indie movies (which would further skew the ratios).

 

Dont be obtuse and actually look at ratios.

 

Im also not arguing Disney isn’t doing what’s in their best interest profit wise.  I’m showing why people are (rightfully) annoyed at Disney’s success.  Disney growing larger in market share leaves less room for original fair.

 

Even looking at remakes, I’m counting auteur remakes like Little Women and A Star is Born for Fox and WB.  Meanwhile, Disney’s remakes are certainly not creative equivalents to those

  The 8th or so version of Little Women hasn't even come out and there were two previous ASIB movies better than the latest one which took heavily from all three prior versions except it had new music

 

Pete's Dragon was "auteur" and damned lovely - how many people went to see it?

 

US opened big.  So did Halloween and The Nun. 

[Cooper Legion]

Turning to numbers for a bit, CM had a solid 2.52 Thurs. Some potentially relevant Thurs:wknd multipliers include: 

CM 2nd — 7.35-> 18.5M

CM 3rd — 8.1-> 20.4M

BatB last March week — 7.5->  18.9M

Kong last March week — 7.8->  19.65M

 

Kong had the same release schedule, pretty similar weekdays, same multi this week as the previous. Thinking 20-21ish

[terrestrial]

23 minutes ago, The Panda said:

Count over last three years releases (2017-2019)

read my post a few post above this one.

 

And again, I find it strange that people focus on this time span, why not look into what went so extremly wrong with some of the worst boms ever... by Disney the few years before said time-span?

 

29 minutes ago, Alli said:

So now that fox doesn't exist anymore, disney will continue making movies for kids. no adult movies like fox used to make? such a shame

 

12 minutes ago, The Panda said:

I agree that the difference isn’t that other studios aren’t continuing their IPs (I don’t think people are complaining that franchise movies are being made)

 

The difference is Disney is doing it at the expense of making non-franchise films.  Could you tell me with a straight face that Disney would finance a movie like Us?

 

And even within franchises WB, Fox and Univeral have taken risks I haven’t seen Disney take.  For example, Fox made Logan and Deadpool, I have 0 faith that Disney would let Marvel Make an R-rated MCU film like either of those.  If they make a Deadpool 3, it’ll only be because that’s no longer risky after the success of Deadpool 1 and 2.

Disney stands for family material, to ask for matrial they are always stated they wont do is .... not logical at best

 

3 minutes ago, The Panda said:

Except they did.

Anyone arguing that Disney hasn’t been the most reluctant studio to take creative risks are being obtuse.

And anyone who decides to ignore the big bombs and small bombs Disney had the years before th time-span ppl chose to look into is what...?

[Barnack]

28 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Look at Uni from the same year.  Of their top 10 film s 5 are remakes or sequels - only 7 movies did 100m+ B.O.

 

That was 2017 Universal released slates:

 

1	Despicable Me 3	Uni.	$264,624,300	4,535	$72,434,025	4,529	6/30	12/21
2	The Fate of the Furious	Uni.	$226,008,385	4,329	$98,786,705	4,310	4/14	8/10
3	Get Out	Uni.	$176,040,665	3,143	$33,377,060	2,781	2/24	2/15
4	Split	Uni.	$138,291,365	3,373	$40,010,975	3,038	1/20	5/11
5	Girls Trip	Uni.	$115,171,585	2,648	$31,201,920	2,591	7/21	10/19
6	Fifty Shades Darker	Uni.	$114,581,250	3,714	$46,607,250	3,710	2/10	4/6
7	Pitch Perfect 3	Uni.	$104,897,530	3,468	$19,928,525	3,447	12/22	3/8
8	The Mummy (2017)	Uni.	$80,227,895	4,035	$31,688,375	4,035	6/9	8/24
9	A Dog's Purpose	Uni.	$64,508,620	3,178	$18,222,810	3,059	1/27	5/18
10	Darkest Hour	Focus	$56,468,410	1,733	$175,006	4	11/22	4/12
11	Happy Death Day	Uni.	$55,683,845	3,535	$26,039,025	3,149	10/13	12/14
12	Atomic Blonde	Focus	$51,687,870	3,326	$18,286,420	3,304	7/28	10/5
13	American Made	Uni.	$51,342,000	3,098	$16,776,390	3,024	9/29	12/14
14	The Great Wall	Uni.	$45,540,830	3,328	$18,469,620	3,326	2/17	6/1
15	Victoria and Abdul	Focus	$22,245,070	1,060	$158,845	4	9/22	1/4
16	Phantom Thread	Focus	$21,198,205	1,186	$216,495	4	12/25	4/12
17	The Zookeeper's Wife	Focus	$17,571,660	1,057	$3,288,835	541	3/31	6/22
18	The Beguiled (2017)	Focus	$10,709,995	941	$229,292	4	6/23	8/17
19	Thank You for Your Service (2017)	Uni.	$9,536,300	2,083	$3,817,700	2,054	10/27	11/30
20	The Snowman	Uni.	$6,700,035	1,815	$3,372,565	1,812	10/20	11/23
21	The Book of Henry	Focus	$4,504,974	650	$1,424,540	579	6/16	8/17
22	Raw (2017)	FCW	$514,870	45	$24,825	2	3/10	5/4

 

 

From Phantom Thread /Beguiled to Darkest Hour to 50 shades/Fate of the Furious quite the diverse slate and yes of their top 10 it was a 50/50 split between remake/sequel and non remake/sequel.

 

7 movie about 100m dbo is the same has Disney that year.

Edited March 29, 2019 by Barnack

[TMP]

3 hours ago, TMP said:

Anyways, $45m OW. Gonna be more front loaded than Cinderella, etc;

Nostradamus 

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

Eyaballing it around me, looks like around 50 just based on sales. 

That would make sense. Deadline’s current high end projection is $49M but it’s also early Friday and Dumbo could get a nice boost on Saturday so $50Mish is probably where it’ll end up 

[Alli]

 The Beach Bum is a bomb. It's a niche movie, but still pitiful result. Someone resurrect the mccanaughesence

[Matthew]

My mind is saying US will go down to 30-31M. I know people here loved the movie but it got somewhat mixed reaction in general public. Get Out and A Quiet Place were universally loved. 

 

CM I have at 20-21 Fandango sales seemz good today. 

[TMP]

Just now, Alli said:

Someone resurrect the mccanaughesence

His next film is from Guy Ritchie, hot off the billion dollar hit Aladdin 😎

[That One Girl]

1 hour ago, TalismanRing said:

 

It's unreasonable when the same posters aren't anti AT&T, Comcast, Fox, Sony, Viacom. 

 

It's also really fucking boring to read ad nauseam especially when it has nothing to do with the individual films themselves

 

You think I’m not against those megacorps too?  The only reason they’re not criticized as heavily on the forum is because this is a box office forum, and Disney makes the most money at the box office.  I’m sure that if Sony and Paramount ruled over all then there’d be just as much anti Sony/Viacom rhetoric.

[Cooper Legion]

That 32 for Us would make me sad if Deadline early Friday was anything more than blindfolded dart throwing. 

[TMP]

Just now, Matthew said:

My mind is saying US will go down to 30-31M. I know people here loved the movie but it got somewhat mixed reaction in general public. Get Out and A Quiet Place were universally loved. 

 

I'd knock it more to a lot of burned off demand on opening weekend than mixed wom tbh

[MrPink]

2 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

read my post a few post above this one.

 

And again, I find it strange that people focus on this time span, why not look into what went so extremly wrong with some of the worst boms ever... by Disney the few years before said time-span?

 

 

Disney stands for family material, to ask for matrial they are always stated they wont do is .... not logical at best

 

And anyone who decides to ignore the big bombs and small bombs Disney had the years before th time-span ppl chose to look into is what...?

 

Isn't that why they've had other brands such as Touchstone Pictures? Remains to be seen if they'll leverage the Fox brand as the brand for those other kinds of films, but certainly there's ways to release films outside the family spectrum without tarnishing your brand.

[dxmatrixdt]

5 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

2nd Update, Friday Midday: Disney’s Dumbo is flying in lower than the $50M-plus tracking expected with an estimated $46M-$49M weekend off a $15M first day, not what we typically expect from the uber event Disney live action remakes of its toon vault (meaning, the bigger branded animated classics like Maleficent, Cinderella). Critics have whipped Jumbo Jr. hard at 55% on Rotten Tomatoes. A lot can change for this $170M-budgeted pic (not counting global P&A) by tomorrow with matinees.

 

Universal’s Us is looking at $32M, a nice -55% hold, with Friday at $9M sending the Jordan Peele-directed horror pic past $100M today. By Sunday Us will stand at $126.6M. Get Out ended its domestic run at $176M.

 

Disney’s Captain Marvel, hear her roar with a fourth weekend of $20M, -42% at 3,985 locations. This would put Ms. Marvel at $353.3M by Sunday.

PureFlix’s controversial anti-abortion drama Unplanned doing better than the low single digits expected with $6.5M this weekend after an opening day of $2.5M which includes $700K in previews.

 

Bleecker Street/ShivHans’ Hotel Mumbai goes wide today from four NY/LA sites last week to 924 theaters. $900K today with $250K from last night’s shows, heading to a $2.5m second weekend.

NEON’s The Beach Bum looks to smoke $600K today, including revised previews of $175K from last night, for a $1.7M three-day. Movie has 50% Rotten Tomatoes score while Hotel Mumbai‘s is 73% fresh.

[Alli]

1 minute ago, TMP said:

His next film is from Guy Ritchie, hot off the billion dollar hit Aladdin 😎

Actually, i can see Aladdin making 1B

[CaptainJackSparrow]

2 minutes ago, TMP said:

Nostradamus 

It’s very likely to go over 50 mil if matinees perform well. 

[The Panda]

15 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

Why look at the ratios and knock Disney for it when you can look at the bottom line of these big studios and see that their ratio is easily superior right now. This is a forum about money that movies make. And to me it’s clear which one stands above the rest. The people can be annoyed all they want to no consequence when the people are the ones responsible for purchasing a movie ticket. How can the general audience be annoyed at their own decisions? If you were to ask the people complaining about Disney to show you all of their movie ticket purchases over the last 3 years, it would likely be hilariously hypocritical 

The last five movies I saw in theaters were Us, The Favourite, Vice, Poppins Returns and Beale Street.

 

I am so hypocritical, right?