AVENGERS: ENDGAME WEEKEND THREAD l Actuals: $357.115M | $866.526M OS, $1.223B WW l Russos true box office kings l *** NO SPOILERS - Even Tagged ***| SALE NOW LIVE: 50% Off Gold Montly, 25% Off Gold Annually

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

Endgame weekend #2's drop will again solely be determined by how many screens/showings theaters give it.  This weekend, theaters made the decision at the highest corporate level to protect nothing and to open everything up to Endgame.  And that opened up the spigots to an AMAZING figure:).

 

Next weekend, they will have two choices - how many new wide movies do they book, and do they give back any showings to any holdovers (or do they keep the Endgame sets rolling).  One thing they won't do is the overnight showings and early morning showings, so all those sellouts go away.  But do they give 75-80% of their "regular time" screens/showings still to Endgame or do they back off to 40-50%.  

 

As for now, I look at Endgame at 50% of true FSS as the "goal number" for DOM weekend #2 and anything else as gravy.  If we see $370M this weekend, then $155M (or 50% off the true FSS number of $310M) would be what a "good hold in my mind" would be...and anything higher would keep this train rolling and be fantastic:)...

I don't think UglyDolls and The Intruder will be given too many screenings honestly.

[Birdo Mandingo]

8 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Yeah, I randomly decided I wanted to go see Endgame again today. Not going to happen. I'll check and see if I can get a decent seat for a later showing tomorrow. 

same. My local theater is completely sold out for today (I checked yesterday). 

 

and tomorrow over 50% of the showtimes are sold out and the ones that are not only have a few seats left.

 

 

[HeadShot]

155m second weekend would be disappointing. 200m is the goalpost. 

[Deep Wang]

3 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

Going to watch Endgame tonight.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

gave my money to US (horror film)

 

 

There's so much salt in this post, it's delicious. 

 

I love that you made sure to include the genre as if we didn't know what Us is, lol.

[Ledmonkey96]

Just now, Deep Wang said:

 

There's so much salt in this post, it's delicious. 

 

I love that you made sure to include the genre as if we didn't know what Us is, lol.

ehhh it's not his fault Endgame was sold out.

[TMP]

22 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Dumbo was tracking at $ 50 - 60M, never $ 75M.

 

And just to clear my point quickly about the buzz:

Dumbo teaser have 13M views [183k likes] / Aladdin teaser have 27M views [390k likes]

Dumbo full trailer have 16M views [235k likes] / Aladdin full trailer have 50M views [1.04M likes]

Pikachu also has bigger trailer views than both, but that's gonna open at around $50m too

[Cappoedameron]

6 minutes ago, HeadShot said:

155m second weekend would be disappointing. 200m is the goalpost. 

If the opening is 310 then 155m is in line for the average drop off rate for a marvel film.

 

Quote

Pikachu also has bigger trailer views than both, but that's gonna open at around $50m too

Dude Pikachu is not gonna open at only 50m.

Edited April 27, 2019 by Cappoedameron

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, TMP said:

Pikachu also has bigger trailer views than both, but that's gonna open at around $50m too

it won't, they're both is coming to +80M, but anyway... let's find out soon

 

 

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, TMP said:

Pikachu also has bigger trailer views than both, but that's gonna open at around $50m too

Oh come on man. 😄 You literally can not say that as it is right now, stop it.

[HeadShot]

1 minute ago, Cappoedameron said:

If the opening is 310 then 155m is in line for the average drop off rate for a marvel film.

I was basing this on a 370m opening. 

[The Futurist]

1 hour ago, AJG said:

Iger MOCKS his competitors

 

 

BRUTAL

[Mulder]

Lowest Endgame OW is going is 350 at this point. Not going to do under that imo.

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, HeadShot said:

155m second weekend would be disappointing. 200m is the goalpost. 

See, I don't see that as disappointing, since I see a 3rd weekend drop (if we got that number-ish) of only 30%ish with Mother's Day weekend...even with a Pika opening...so, I see over $100M 3rd weekend (if we get $370M:), even with a largish 2nd weekend drop...b/c I think it's supply, not demand, that's gonna limit the 1st few weekends:)...

[JB33]

3 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

If the opening is 310 then 155m is in line for the average drop off rate for a marvel film.

The opening will be well over $310M.

[MCKillswitch123]

Internal multiplier cases following the remaining MCU:

 

COMPARABLE	PREVIEWS	TRUE FRIDAY	SATURDAY	SUNDAY	OPENING WEEKEND
Black Panther	60	96.7	125.9 (+30.16%)	114.6 (-9%)	398.1
Thor: Ragnarok	60	96.7	133.6 (+38.14%)	97 (-27.4%)	387.3
Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2	60	96.7	126.9 (+31.21%)	96.8 (-23.7%)	380.4
Doctor Strange	60	96.7	130.7 (+35.21%)	88 (-32.7%)	375.4
Avengers: Infinity War	60	96.7	118 (+22.04%)	99.5 (-15.7%)	374.2
Captain Marvel	60	96.7	124.7 (+28.96%)	91.7 (-26.5%)	373.1
Captain America: The Winter Soldier	60	96.7	125.5 (+29.83%)	84.8 (-32.4%)	370
Thor: The Dark World	60	96.7	125.1 (+29.35%)	84.8 (-32.2%)	366.6
Ant-Man	60	96.7	116.2 (+20.15%)	90.2 (-22.4%)	363.1
Guardians Of The Galaxy	60	96.7	112.7 (+16.5%)	92.6 (-17.8%)	362
Captain America: Civil War	60	96.7	117.2 (+21.21%)	81.2 (-30.7%)	355.1
The Avengers	60	96.7	108.3 (+12.01%)	88.8 (-18%)	353.8
Iron Man 3	60	96.7	113 (+16.84%)	78.1 (-30.9%)	347.8
Ant-Man And The Wasp	60	96.7	102.6 (+6.1%)	80.7 (-21.3%)	340
Spider-Man: Homecoming	60	96.7	101.1 (+4.6%)	79.7 (-21.2%)	337.5
Captain America: The First Avenger	60	96.7	97.8 (+1.12%)	77.7 (-20.6%)	332.2
Thor	60	96.7	101.7 (+5.14%)	73.6 (-27.6%)	332
Avengers: Age Of Ultron	60	96.7	92.1 (-0.5%)	82 (-11%)	330.8
Iron Man	60	96.7	102.5 (+6%)	71.4 (-30.3%)	330.6
Iron Man 2	60	96.7	101.3 (+4.75%)	68.9 (-32%)	326.9
The Incredible Hulk	60	96.7	82.8 (-14.4%)	70.1 (-15.3%)	309.6

 

I know that a lot of these comparables have extremes to them, due to the varied times of the year they came out and all..... but this is Endgame, so we're throwing out logic out the window and applying every comparable here. Soooooo basically it needs to perform better than Black Panther, a President's Day 4-day frame opener, to get to 400, so it's time to get off that horse  However, should it follow just about half of the MCU (including even a lot of the bigger openers, including Infinity War), it's likelier than not to beat the previous OW record by 100M. Insane.

Edited April 27, 2019 by MCKillswitch123

[The Futurist]

57 minutes ago, Sam said:

When will Iger get his Kevin Feige’s tattoo?

Who is saying Sir to who in the  Iger/Feige relationship ?

[Cappoedameron]

8 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

See, I don't see that as disappointing, since I see a 3rd weekend drop (if we got that number-ish) of only 30%ish with Mother's Day weekend...even with a Pika opening...so, I see over $100M 3rd weekend (if we get $370M:), even with a largish 2nd weekend drop...b/c I think it's supply, not demand, that's gonna limit the 1st few weekends:)...

No offense but this is unrealistic, a -30% hold against Pikachu? If movies like Battleship, Life of the Party, and Breaking In were able to put Avengers and Infinity War at only -45% holds what the heck makes you think Pokemon is gonna only do -30% for Endgame when it's a freaking monster in and of itself? Do you not understand how big the Pokemon brand is?

 

This is competition for Endgame, none of those movies were competition for those Avengers movies.

Edited April 27, 2019 by Cappoedameron

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Internal multiplier cases following the remaining MCU:

 

COMPARABLE	PREVIEWS	TRUE FRIDAY	SATURDAY	SUNDAY	OPENING WEEKEND
Black Panther	60	96.7	125.9 (+30.16%)	114.6 (-9%)	398.1
Thor: Ragnarok	60	96.7	133.6 (+38.14%)	97 (-27.4%)	387.3
Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2	60	96.7	126.9 (+31.21%)	96.8 (-23.7%)	380.4
Doctor Strange	60	96.7	130.7 (+35.21%)	88 (-32.7%)	375.4
Avengers: Infinity War	60	96.7	118 (+22.04%)	99.5 (-15.7%)	374.2
Captain Marvel	60	96.7	124.7 (+28.96%)	91.7 (-26.5%)	373.1
Captain America: The Winter Soldier	60	96.7	125.5 (+29.83%)	84.8 (-32.4%)	370
Thor: The Dark World	60	96.7	125.1 (+29.35%)	84.8 (-32.2%)	366.6
Ant-Man	60	96.7	116.2 (+20.15%)	90.2 (-22.4%)	363.1
Guardians Of The Galaxy	60	96.7	112.7 (+16.5%)	92.6 (-17.8%)	362
Captain America: Civil War	60	96.7	117.2 (+21.21%)	81.2 (-30.7%)	355.1
The Avengers	60	96.7	108.3 (+12.01%)	88.8 (-18%)	353.8
Iron Man 3	60	96.7	113 (+16.84%)	78.1 (-30.9%)	347.8
Ant-Man And The Wasp	60	96.7	102.6 (+6.1%)	80.7 (-21.3%)	340
Spider-Man: Homecoming	60	96.7	101.1 (+4.6%)	79.7 (-21.2%)	337.5
Captain America: The First Avenger	60	96.7	97.8 (+1.12%)	77.7 (-20.6%)	332.2
Thor	60	96.7	101.7 (+5.14%)	73.6 (-27.6%)	332
Avengers: Age Of Ultron	60	96.7	92.1 (-0.5%)	82 (-11%)	330.8
Iron Man	60	96.7	102.5 (+6%)	71.4 (-30.3%)	330.6
Iron Man 2	60	96.7	101.3 (+4.75%)	68.9 (-32%)	326.9
The Incredible Hulk	60	96.7	82.8 (-14.4%)	70.1 (-15.3%)	309.6

 

I know that a lot of these comparables have extremes to them, due to the varied times of the year they came out and all..... but this is Endgame, so we're throwing out logic out the window and applying every comparable here. Soooooo basically it needs to perform better than Black Panther, a President's Day 4-day frame opener, to get to 400, so it's time to get off that horse  However, should it follow the majority of the MCU (including even a lot of the bigger openers, including Infinity War), it's likelier than not to beat the previous OW record by 100M. Insane.

I feel like the IW comp is where it'll land if I had to guess right now.

[Deep Wang]

45 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Legendary @Tele Dondarrion posted this on my 300M OW club. If only he was here to know how right he was...

 

Let's see how he's taking it:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aw, that's a shame.

 

[Cappoedameron]

6 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

it won't, they're both is coming to +80M, but anyway... let's find out soon

 

 

Pika is likely gonna be between 85/90M OW. Aladdin will probably hit around 80M.