AVENGERS: ENDGAME WEEKEND THREAD l Actuals: $357.115M | $866.526M OS, $1.223B WW l Russos true box office kings l *** NO SPOILERS - Even Tagged ***| SALE NOW LIVE: 50% Off Gold Montly, 25% Off Gold Annually

[Eric is Quiet]

1 minute ago, Brainbug said:

 

Id argue that Godzilla and to a certain extent also Wick and Aladdin may benefit from a June that is very light on action blockbusters. Only Men in Black and Dark Phoenix are action competition and both seem like relative underperformers to me.

That cramped May and relatively empty June still annoys me. Pets and Toy Story are basically locked to decrease from their predecessors anyway, so they could have moved Rocketman or Wick or something.

[Valonqar]

I cna't believe that there are still Over 3 Billie Denialists. Search your gut feelings. you know it's happening. stars lined up. End of an era. Rave reviews. Fandom enthusiasm all over the word. Records broken in 199 countries out of 200 (the one where it didn't open yet). Boom. it isn't a question of if but by how much.

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, Shawn said:

It's so hard to tell right now. I think we'll get a better idea when we start seeing some dailies and the second weekend hold for Endgame. It's hard to imagine this thing not being front-loaded on some level, but it has less direct competition in mid-to-late May than Infinity War did with Deadpool 2 and Solo each aiming for similar male audiences.

 

Pikachu is the wild card as it always has been. I wouldn't underestimate a PG movie with wide appeal and the kind of lighthearted fun that people will be looking for after the relative heaviness of Endgame.

 

John Wick will be fine, I think. Target adult audience will be mostly past Endgame by the time it opens. I actually think it'll be the best performer of the three movies so far.

 

Aladdin's uphill fight just became even harder. Godzilla should be fine one month out and with schools out by then, IMO.

John Wick has been doing solid business at my theater thus far so I agree with that statement. But it'll be interesting to see what affect a movie of this magnitude has on future releases as we have never gotten a movie that's open this large obviously. Usually I don't agree that a movie can have that big of an affect on future releases in terms of box office BUT when a movie is opening over $350M (the fact that I just typed that number out holy crap!) then I think it becomes a fair question and definitely something to look at. 

 

Thanks for this info! 

[Sam]

6 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

What the hell guys, you blew it! I told you not to post anything god

 

 

I’m sorry 

[Avatree]

7 minutes ago, GirafficPark said:

EP IX isnt breaking records. It might open bigger than TFA, if the trailers get better before December and it manages to build hype, but its gross will be $770-810M. I think it will open to 230-260M, with no daily records, no preview record.

under 200. finish high 500s.

[The Panda]

9 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

If the follow-up to TFA couldn't beat TFA previews, then the follow-up to the follow-up certainly isn't going to beat a new, better number.

While I agree with you more than I don’t.

 

I think these four Avengers movies show that this line of thinking doesn’t seem to always hold true.  Based on how AoU performed there was no reason to think IW would bust the OW record until it got closer, presales were crazy and it did.

 

Based off how IW performed, there was no reason to think Endgame would increase its opening weekend by nearly 100m or so.

 

Granted, I don’t think Skywalker is going to perform much better than TLJ, I could potentially see a bump.  I could also see Skywalker taking a dip to around RO levels

[Shawn Robbins]

1 minute ago, Deep Wang said:

 

I bet he also says jif instead of gif...

You've stumbled upon one of my great pet peeves.

[Brainbug]

Just now, Shawn said:

Agreed! MIB4 gives me a Mummy '17 vibe box office-wise. Dark Phoenix... well, even as an X-Men fan and a lover of the current cast, I have a bad feeling about its performance coming off Apocalypse.

 

Sadly out of like but yeah i think so too. I didnt follow MIB4 but without the original cast ... what really is the hook? Also, the trailer that i saw before Endgame for it was kind of bad honestly.

And Dark Phoenix ... im a X-Men fan as well and i even kind of liked Apocalypse but i just feel no desire to see that film.

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, Brainbug said:

 

Id argue that Godzilla and to a certain extent also Wick and Aladdin may benefit from a June that is very light on action blockbusters. Only Men in Black and Dark Phoenix are action competition and both seem like relative underperformers to me.

Rocketman could do well but the runtime could be a factor. 

 

It's a shame Shazam dropped so hard but it wasn't a shock. WB knew it would a risk scheduling it before such an event. It'll still get a sequel nonetheless.

[XXR & Friends]

While we wait for Endgame actuals, here is my early TROS predictions....

$42m previews
$56m Friday
$63m Saturday
$53m Sunday

$214m OW

[#ED]

There won’t be a bigger opening weekend for another decade or so. This is box office history fellas. Enjoy it.

[SchumacherFTW]

3 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Agreed! MIB4 gives me a Mummy '17 vibe box office-wise. Dark Phoenix... well, even as an X-Men fan and a lover of the current cast, I have a bad feeling about its performance coming off Apocalypse.

It infuriates me that Dark Phoenix is taking IMAX away from Godzilla after a week. IMAX obviously goes where the money is, but this just feels wrong on a contextual level. 

[Deep Wang]

1 minute ago, Shawn said:

You've stumbled upon one of my great pet peeves.

 

Right?  At the time we didn't know any better, but now, it's just wrong, lol.

[doublejack]

15 minutes ago, 75Live said:

still crazy numbers for this movie.  Can't wait to see what it actually ends up at when the actuals come in.

 

I just looked at the top 20 OW dom of all time and I'm shocked I have been a part of 15 of the top 20, as in I saw those movie on OW.

 

I guess I have been part of history a bunch of times 😛

Actually if you think about it logically, there are many people who have participated in those weekends. That's why they set records, right? If a lot of people didn't come out they would not have.

 

I have contributed to 14 of the top 20 OW record holders. Some I saw more than once on OW, too.

[oMeriMombatti]

2 minutes ago, Sam said:

I’m sorry 

What a way to apologise, bouncing and all  

[Shawn Robbins]

1 minute ago, Nova said:

John Wick has been doing solid business at my theater thus far so I agree with that statement. But it'll be interesting to see what affect a movie of this magnitude has on future releases as we have never gotten a movie that's open this large obviously. Usually I don't agree that a movie can have that big of an affect on future releases in terms of box office BUT when a movie is opening over $350M (the fact that I just typed that number out holy crap!) then I think it becomes a fair question and definitely something to look at. 

 

Thanks for this info! 

You're welcome!

 

That's definitely a great point re: the effect of a major opener. Another way to look at it is Endgame is reaping the rewards of a very disappointing early 2018 market. So, in theory anyway, people still aren't spending any more money than they were by the end of May last year. It's just a matter of how appealing those movies will be to them.

 

 

Once we get past mid-June, though, I think summer kicks into high gear.

 

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, SchumacherFTW said:

It infuriates me that Dark Phoenix is taking IMAX away from Godzilla after a week. IMAX obviously goes where the money is, but this just feels wrong on a contextual level. 

 

I think that Godzilla may be getting some IMAX screens back in its 3rd week if DP really underperforms. IMAX just wants money as well after all.

[1Robert1]

14 minutes ago, AJG said:

 

What movie could open up to $300m+

 

A Harry Potter reunion? A Friends reunion?

Avengers + X-men vs Justice League with Dwayne Johnson

[TigerPaw]

2 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

Rocketman could do well but the runtime could be a factor. 

 

It's a shame Shazam dropped so hard but it wasn't a shock. WB knew it would a risk scheduling it before such an event. It'll still get a sequel nonetheless.

Hope it wakes WB up. The release date killed Shazam.

[Avatree]

1 minute ago, SchumacherFTW said:

It infuriates me that Dark Phoenix is taking IMAX away from Godzilla after a week. IMAX obviously goes where the money is, but this just feels wrong on a contextual level. 

neither film uses imax cameras or even have a bigger frame in IMAX as far as I'm aware? so who cares.