Avengers: Endgame Monday Thread (4/29): 36.87M (3rd best Monday ever)

[blackspider]

Been following box offfice since SM1 in ‘02. Been posting in BO forums since ‘05. Nothing and I mean nothing has been more jaw-dropping than this and we’re not even 4 days in yet. What is happening!

[MrPink]

5 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

I remember SW7 MON was not a legal holiday but many people didn't have to go to work or school?

 

From a percentage standpoint I can't say, but I imagine most kids would have had their school holidays start on that Monday. By Wednesday I'd imagine everyone is done with school for the holidays.

 

I still imagine most people were working however with the exception of those who took extended holidays

Edited April 30, 2019 by MrPink

[Nova]

15 minutes ago, Porthos said:

We don't even need to retroactively analyze it, is my point.  What studio scheduler in their right mind would have forecasted the possibility of a 180-200m second weekend for EG when WB set the schedule for Pikachu?

Even a best case scenario of $300M with IW drops would have gotten End Game to around $70M. Pretty sure a studio would think they’d be able to compete with that. But no studio (and no one in general) thought End Game was doing $357M it’s OW. And thus you can’t go back and think “what if,” because that $357M wasn’t anyone’s mind even just last week. 

 

On that note: is it too late to refund people their Pikachu tickets, cancel the rest of the press tour and just move the release date to anywhere where else. Literally any other date 

[Cmasterclay]

Avengers is doing pretty good, seems like a hit.

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

I remember SW7 MON was not a legal holiday but many people didn't have to go to work or school?

It was Christmas week so yeah. TFA's first set of weekdays was ~142 million, I don't think Endgame can beat that but whatever ground it loses (which shouldn't be too much) will be made up in weekend 2.

[acetabulum]

32 minutes ago, Porthos said:

It's OW is EG's third weekend.  Even if they thought EG would do 20% more than IW's 3rd weekend when they were setting the schedule, that would be thinking that it would be competing against around a 75m weekend.

 

They probably figured that they could compete against that.

Exactly, and if they move it down, they're competing against Aladdin, Secret Life of Pets sequel, Spider-Man, Lion King, Dora, etc. all kids movies.  An Endgame $75 mil weekend (as probably initially projected) wouldn't be the worst competition.

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, acetabulum said:

Exactly, and if they move it down, they're competing against Aladdin, Secret Life of Pets sequel, Spider-Man, Lion King, Dora, etc. all kids movies.  An Endgame $75 mil weekend (as probably initially projected) wouldn't be the worst competition.

Dora got a place on this list but not Toy Story. Damn. That’s rough. 

[Lordmandeep]

I would say Black Panther and IW really got a lot of new casuals or a lot of people sold on the MCU really.

 

BP was a super hit and a cultural zeitgeist moment.

 

 

IW had the most talked about finales in years and an iconic villain. 

[JB33]

47 minutes ago, CloneWars said:

So, if this hits $200M second weekend, I think Pikachu will be very overshadowed. All the media attention will be on EG, and I think lots of people who don't typically go to movies will opt to see EG over Pikachu. At this point, I am a bit worried about it. I think WB made a bad decision with their release date.

It's just like when they scheduled King Arthur: Legend of the Sword the weekend after Guardians 2 in 2017. Now that was always going to bomb anyway but the point is they considered it one of their tentpoles and potential franchise starters, given the budget. Why put it right up against a yearly MCU mega-release? Who knows, maybe they're actually trying to do what many people here beg studios to do and that's to have the balls to go mano a mano with Disney when when one of their mega-openers releases (people say this about Star Wars anyway).

 

What's Pika's budget? WB was surely expecting the hype, right? Or is the amount of hype catching them by surprise and they never meant for this to be a potential big hit? If they didn't expect it to be that big in the first place then maybe that's why. Doubtful though.

 

WB would be better off putting a comedy there like they did with Hot Pursuit in 2015 the week after Avengers: Age of Ultron (even though Hot Pursuit failed). Comedies and horrors work well as low-risk high-reward counter-programming.

Edited April 30, 2019 by JB33

[Brinatico]

BP and FA have already make 40M on Monday each. 

If this one going to get all the attention need to get 41 at least 

[Darth Lehnsherr]

5 minutes ago, Nova said:

Dora got a place on this list but not Toy Story. Damn. That’s rough. 

Toy Story 4 is about a existential crisis a being has over their purpose in this earth. Not a kids movie 

[Nova]

In WB defense, they’re not the ones who actually scheduled Pikachu for May 10th. It was scheduled there when they acquired it. They just never moved it though. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, JB33 said:

It's just like when they scheduled King Arthur: Legend of the Sword the weekend after Guardians 2 in 2017. Now that was always going to bomb anyway but the point is they considered it one of their tentpoles and potential franchise starters, given the budget. Why put it right up against a yearly MCU mega-release? Who knows, maybe they're actually trying to do what many hear beg studios to do and that's to have the balls to go mano a mano with Disney when when one of their mega-openers releases (people say this about Star Wars anyway).

 

What's Pika's budget? WB was surely expecting the hype, right? Or is the amount of hype catching them by surprise and they never meant for this to be a potential big hit? If they didn't expect it to be that big in the first place then maybe that's why. Doubtful though.

 

WB would be better off putting a comedy there like they did with Hot Pursuit in 2015 the week after Avengers: Age of Ultron (even though Hot Pursuit failed). Comedies and horrors work well as low-risk high-reward counter-programming.

Pika hype was big with the first trailer but I feel like there isn't any room for any movie to gain hype or buzz for the next couple of weeks at least. More than whatever the actual third weekend gross of Endgame will be, that's gonna be the biggest issue.

[The Futurist]

BP and FA's Monday were holidays, no ?

[Darth Lehnsherr]

No one was really questioning the Pika Pika release date until a couple of weeks ago when the possibility of Endgame making $300M OW started to become a reality. Sometimes you're just unfortunate with the competition being bigger than expected and there's nothing you can do about it. 

[Rthmessiah]

2 hours ago, RtheEnd said:

few hours ago i was going with 36-38 trying stay conservative(over weekend conservative generally got me high end range  ), but I could see how 40 or more could be achievable. It's just with presales so high, see how evening goes.

37-38

[JB33]

2 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

No one was really questioning the Pika Pika release date until a couple of weeks ago when the possibility of Endgame making $300M OW started to become a reality. Sometimes you're just unfortunate with the competition being bigger than expected and there's nothing you can do about it. 

True enough. 

[Eric Duncan]

8 minutes ago, JB33 said:

It's just like when they scheduled King Arthur: Legend of the Sword the weekend after Guardians 2 in 2017. Now that was always going to bomb anyway but the point is they considered it one of their tentpoles and potential franchise starters, given the budget. Why put it right up against a yearly MCU mega-release? Who knows, maybe they're actually trying to do what many people here beg studios to do and that's to have the balls to go mano a mano with Disney when when one of their mega-openers releases (people say this about Star Wars anyway).

It was probably a case where WB wanted to clean their hands of it (there's a reason it was delayed so much), and put it in a position where it would quietly bomb where nobody would pay attention to it.

[XXR vs XXR]

1 hour ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

38-39 seems the number.

 

1 minute ago, RtheEnd said:

37-38

 

I guess we got a battle to see who’s the true king of Asgard! 😎

[doublejack]

59 minutes ago, acetabulum said:

So when will this beat Force Awakens?

357M OW

120M weekdays

180M 2nd weekend

 

That would leave 280M to go just 10 days into the run, and put Endgame 204M up on IW to that point. I could project out some dailies to come up with a rough date estimate, but it is bed time. I'm going to ballpark it at the 5th weekend, or maybe into the 5th week. So near the end of May.