Weekend Thread: Friday Estimates: Pika pi! 20.7m, Assemble! 16.1m, Anne Hathaway! 4m, Cheerleaders: Endgame 1.5m, LotR: Origins 825k

[keysersoze123]

Looking at NYC, SF and LA, I could see Endgame has slowed quite a bit. TCL chinese theater imax(900+ seats) shows are almost empty and its just afternoon.

 

Biggest competition for Endgame is itself. Its just a humongous monster chipping away audience at an enormous rate. I dont think it will be impacted by any other movie. Let us see how next week goes. It needs a great drop to keep $900m in play. Otherwise it will end around 870-880m range. Ginormous increase from already inflated Infinity War.

 

Pokemon had a good increase on saturday but to me its sunday estimate looks way too optimistic. Its going to go down couple of million for sure.

 

Next weekend should be interesting as John Wick 3 will break out for sure. I am hoping for 60m after Deep Wang's report.

[VanillaSkies]

2 hours ago, a2k said:

she should be batwoman.

She deserves so much better than that ....

[Mulder]

40 minutes ago, Barnack said:

It will get bundled and will end up pretty much exactly like cable TV,  I imagine.

Aka defeating the purpose and strength of streaming.

[VanillaSkies]

51 minutes ago, Maxmoser3 said:

 

Captain Marvel hanging on in the top 10. Should play well in two weeks with Aladdin drive-in combos. It is also a strong note that this is a very successful film with a Female Protagonist, and it should out gross Catching Fire very soon. A total close The Dark Knight Rises is likely. 

 

 

Considering it will be in it's 5th weekend, I kind of assumed that Endgame would get the drive-in double features with Aladdin. 

Also, I've never really asked the question. How much is the average ticket price when it comes to drive in double features? There hasn't been any drive ins around these parts for decades, so I really have no clue what the range might be.

[El Gato]

Still waiting on that live action Digimon movie! A Digimon film would blow Pokemon out the water, as the anime of the former has always been superior to the latters. 

[cdsacken]

Streaming bubble is not gonna pop. I am never going to pay $200 a month for crappy awful cable channels again.

 

$45 a month for internet. Amazon prime already, Netflix paid for 2 years and Hulu/HBO/YouTube red is easy to get when I need to binge on something.

I gave up on live sports. Now I spend $120 less. No thanks.

 

Disney will be something ridiculous like $60 a year definitely will do that.

[Minnale101]

8 minutes ago, El Gato said:

Still waiting on that live action Digimon movie! A Digimon film would blow Pokemon out the water, as the anime of the former has always been superior to the latters. 

No production company would ever give up 50 million to digimon movie budget.

 

it wouldn’t come close to Pokémon box office 

[Rorschach]

Huh. The opening weekend for Pokemon: The First Movie, adjusted for inflation, is around $55 million, just $3 million shy of the estimates for DP. 

 

Food for thought.

[Minnale101]

Just now, Rorschach said:

Huh. The opening weekend for Pokemon: The First Movie, adjusted for inflation, is around $55 million, just $3 million shy of the estimates for DP. 

 

Food for thought.

I mean the movie released in 1999. Pokémon peak popularity was in 1998-1999

 

 

[JB33]

4 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Streaming bubble is not gonna pop. I am never going to pay $200 a month for crappy awful cable channels again.

 

$45 a month for internet. Amazon prime already, Netflix paid for 2 years and Hulu/HBO/YouTube red is easy to get when I need to binge on something.

I gave up on live sports. Now I spend $120 less. No thanks.

 

Disney will be something ridiculous like $60 a year definitely will do that.

This! Sports was the only thing that kept me connected with cable. It's not that I just don't like sports anymore, but that I realized my love of watching them doesn't justify the cost of cable. I just watch highlights now, and if I actually want to watch a big game I'll make it a night out and go to the bar or a restaurant with some friends or even by myself.

[cdsacken]

Amazon and Disney don't need to make money on streaming. Netflix will continue expanding to increase it's global footprint, the only way it can continue to grow.

[Rorschach]

2 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

I mean the movie released in 1999. Pokémon peak popularity was in 1998-1999

 

 

I know. Just thought it was an interesting comparison.

[Lordmandeep]

49 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Looking at NYC, SF and LA, I could see Endgame has slowed quite a bit. TCL chinese theater imax(900+ seats) shows are almost empty and its just afternoon.

 

Biggest competition for Endgame is itself. Its just a humongous monster chipping away audience at an enormous rate. I dont think it will be impacted by any other movie. Let us see how next week goes. It needs a great drop to keep $900m in play. Otherwise it will end around 870-880m range. Ginormous increase from already inflated Infinity War.

 

Pokemon had a good increase on saturday but to me its sunday estimate looks way too optimistic. Its going to go down couple of million for sure.

 

Next weekend should be interesting as John Wick 3 will break out for sure. I am hoping for 60m after Deep Wang's report.

 

 

Well look at this way...

 

IW already brought a lot of casuals already with a 680 million gross.

 

 

Now the 170-200 million increase is coming from mostly new viewers (think some increase is from repeated views too) and as you said for a comic book movie we are reaching the limits here. Like I generally find MCU films dont appeal much to the 45-50+ crowd much unlike something like SW7.

 

I personally know a lot of people who watched IW and really liked it especially the ending and wanted to see how this was gonna all end. 

 

 

So yeah it did not beat SW7 or make a billion dollars but its going to make 850 million plus and that would mean its one of the most attended films of the modern era domestically which is a level I never thought the MCU could ever achieve. 

 

 

[TwoMisfits]

36 minutes ago, JB33 said:

This! Sports was the only thing that kept me connected with cable. It's not that I just don't like sports anymore, but that I realized my love of watching them doesn't justify the cost of cable. I just watch highlights now, and if I actually want to watch a big game I'll make it a night out and go to the bar or a restaurant with some friends or even by myself.

That's how I got rid of ESPN, and dropped my cable cost $60/month (I still have cable, but only basic in a triple play, b/c it's just as cheap almost as having internet only)...I decided I could live with just the football on the main channels (which I still watch all the time)...

 

Next year, I'm gonna re-evalute cable again when I see what folks are offering for football viewing...I may drop it entirely if the right package is there...

[cdsacken]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

That's how I got rid of ESPN, and dropped my cable cost $60/month (I still have cable, but only basic in a triple play, b/c it's just as cheap almost as having internet only)...I decided I could live with just the football on the main channels (which I still watch all the time)...

 

Next year, I'm gonna re-evalute cable again when I see what folks are offering for football viewing...I may drop it entirely if the right package is there...

There might be special veteran plans bundled with your awesome TMobile plan too. $60 bundle is pretty sweet for convenience.

[JohnnyGossamer]

Gonna be honest, close to considering Netflix a shit channel. I do like mail order DVD selection.

[cax16]

 

[charlie Jatinder]

8 hours ago, cdsacken said:

Did u factor in a small bump around weekend 10-12 for FFH?

It won't have any. Infinity War had weakest hold in Ant Man and The Wasp week.

[cdsacken]

1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

It won't have any. Infinity War had weakest hold in Ant Man and The Wasp week.

Ant Man and the wasp had basically no connection at all, was a silly comedy type cheezy spinoff. 

 

FFH is much more similar in the vein of End Game with a direct link to post End Game. I disagree but who knows maybe you're right. Bump would be small because theater count will be like 1k or less.

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Ant Man and the wasp had basically no connection at all, was a silly comedy type cheezy spinoff. 

 

FFH is much more similar in the vein of End Game with a direct link to post End Game. I disagree but who knows maybe you're right. Bump would be small because theater count will be like 1k or less.

Also, bump as in double feature ain't gonna happen, as its Sony film and EG is Disney. I think that's not how things go.

 

Besides, even if it bumps, doesn't matter as EG will be done by then. IW did $4mn after AM&TW released, and EG might be doing similar number.

Edited May 12, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder