Weekend Thread: Friday Estimates: Pika pi! 20.7m, Assemble! 16.1m, Anne Hathaway! 4m, Cheerleaders: Endgame 1.5m, LotR: Origins 825k

[dxmatrixdt]

21 minutes ago, Alli said:

Next week drop for Pika? around  55%

makin' fun?

[raulbalarezo]

1 minute ago, MrPink said:

 

Cinematic as they are, how do you differentiate this series from Indiana Jones on the film level.

Nathan Drake is cooler 

[MrPink]

3 minutes ago, raulbalarezo said:

Nathan Drake is cooler 

 

I love Nathan Drake, Uncharted 2 is among my favorite games of all time but....

 

Man, I don't even think ND or Nolan North would agree with you on that one.

[Alli]

Gary Oldman wasting that oscar momentum. starring in movies with jessica alba...

 

 

[Nero]

5 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

Cinematic as they are, how do you differentiate this series from Indiana Jones on the film level.

Indiana Jones movies are old and the newer generation doesn't care about it much I'm talking worldwide... Also you can add the crazy stunts like in the video games... I think it will do great.. We don't have much adventure movies after National Treasure

[JonathanLB]

38 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

What i see is that people will start to stop watching mid-size films like comedies or action films in theatres if Netflix or other streaming services are releasing such films or will have them on their services in 2-3 months. 

 

The issue is that Netflix cannot make a film like Endgame or films like the mega Disney blockbusters coming out this year.

 

That is why Disney has gone for the tentpole focused releases.

 

 

This is a really good analysis and point. I know I am a bit guilty of this as well, I see the smaller films come out and I think, eh, I’ll wait for Netflix or iTunes or in any case stay home. But there is a solution - things like AMC’s A List where I’m paying $20/month and there’s no reason for me not to go take advantage of seeing more movies. It has to be subscription based if they want me to check out the smaller movies though. I don’t want to pay $12 to see an adult drama that cost $15M to make when a $200M blockbuster also costs $12 - that’s a bad value proposition for me. It makes no sense as a customer. I don’t pay the same for gas station sunglasses and Oakley’s, so I’m not paying the same for a much cheaper movie. Just not going to happen most of the time. 

[dxmatrixdt]

1 hour ago, Alli said:

Gary Oldman wasting that oscar momentum. starring in movies with jessica alba...

 

is there enough movies released in 2018 and 2019 to keep Ally busy and in the house this year?

Spoiler

maybe the white supremacist fam is/was too busy training to tour Iraq???😼🧚‍♂️

 

Edited May 12, 2019 by Clubs Are Trash

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, JonathanLB said:

This is a really good analysis and point. I know I am a bit guilty of this as well, I see the smaller films come out and I think, eh, I’ll wait for Netflix or iTunes or in any case stay home. But there is a solution - things like AMC’s A List where I’m paying $20/month and there’s no reason for me not to go take advantage of seeing more movies. It has to be subscription based if they want me to check out the smaller movies though. I don’t want to pay $12 to see an adult drama that cost $15M to make when a $200M blockbuster also costs $12 - that’s a bad value proposition for me. It makes no sense as a customer. I don’t pay the same for gas station sunglasses and Oakley’s, so I’m not paying the same for a much cheaper movie. Just not going to happen most of the time. 

In the "premier animated" family realm, I think this really hits home...

 

Missing Link and UglyDolls tried to release at full prices...and absolutely sunk...

 

Wonder Park, with awful reviews (akin to Ugly Dolls), touted a very public "reduced price" strategy...

 

When final DOM box office comes in, Wonder Park will make more than double either of the other 2 releases...even though one is supposedly much higher quality, and the other had star talent aplenty (even if it wasn't good)...

 

And why?  B/c folks like me, not planning to see any of the 3, was willing to give Wonder Park a chance for $5.  I'd have actually given all 3 a chance at that price, but only one ever touted it...so only 1 got it...

[Barnack]

30 minutes ago, baumer said:

sorry buddy but when he says the floor is a certain number and it hits that number then he was correct. And there's no other way to argue that. The floor means the worst case scenario.

Has you said floor mean worst case scenario, what a movie end up doing is not necessarily the worst case scenario.

 

Someone last year saying that End Game floor was 350m does not become correct if the movie does it.

[ZeeSoh]

Is it just me or the recently browsing section broken on mobile website?

 

Ever since the forum update it only shows me under that section and no one else. 

[cookie]

3 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Is it just me or the recently browsing section broken on mobile website?

 

Ever since the forum update it only shows me under that section and no one else. 

It's broken on desktop as well.

[JonathanLB]

5 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

In the "premier animated" family realm, I think this really hits home...

 

Missing Link and UglyDolls tried to release at full prices...and absolutely sunk...

 

Wonder Park, with awful reviews (akin to Ugly Dolls), touted a very public "reduced price" strategy...

 

When final DOM box office comes in, Wonder Park will make more than double either of the other 2 releases...even though one is supposedly much higher quality, and the other had star talent aplenty (even if it wasn't good)...

 

And why?  B/c folks like me, not planning to see any of the 3, was willing to give Wonder Park a chance for $5.  I'd have actually given all 3 a chance at that price, but only one ever touted it...so only 1 got it...

Another thing nobody really talks about for some reason is that in the last 20 years, movies at home have either gotten cheaper or not increased at all in price but have massively increased quality while movies in theaters have outpaced inflation in many cases.

 

I paid $20/movie for DVDs in the late 90s when they first came out. I routinely get deals on 4K and 4K digital movies for $10-15, and never pay above $20, so they’re still the same price at worst as they were 20 years ago. But 20 years ago I saw movies in theaters for $6-7 for night showings of any film. Now I’m paying $12. That’s creeping awful close to the actual price to OWN the movie.

 

Now combine that with the fact 20 years ago we waited 6-9 months to get a movie on standard definition DVD, now we wait 3-4 months for a movie on 4K. That’s a pretty enormous series of motivators to just stay home unless it’s a huge movie. That’s 3 separate factors driving home viewing - pricing, quality, and timing.

[expensiveho]

I think it's pretty amazing how 3/5 of the DOM Top5 is MCU.

 

And none of them are The Avengers, I remember people talking about how SH movies in general would never reach those heights again (especially in the BvS and CW times)

[MCKillswitch123]

People were talking about video game movies? Well, Mortal Kombat is one of the best bad movies ever made (and by that I mean that it's a bad movie, BUT it's genuinely entertaining - and that's not just ironically - and has plenty of legit good things about it) and one could even argue that it's good, the 2018 Tomb Raider is alright, Ratchet & Clank is a passable enough kids film, and the rest are either fun trash or straight up trash. Have not seen Detective Pikachu yet, which will likely outgross Shazam! (as did Us, DOM, and as will Godzilla for sure), so it's not like the field is literally CBM, Star Wars, remakes and death to all else.

 

I think that every single game franchise can be a movie, in some way or another. You just need the smart minds to realize how to successfully adapt a media known for gameplay and personal experiences above narrative. Plain and simple.

 

Oh, and someone call me when they finally greenlight the fucking Mass Effect TV series (or movie series, but it should be a TV series for better development's sake).

Edited May 12, 2019 by MCKillswitch123

[Nero]

3 minutes ago, expensiveho said:

I think it's pretty amazing how 3/5 of the DOM Top5 is MCU.

 

And none of them are The Avengers, I remember people talking about how SH movies in general would never reach those heights again (especially in the BvS and CW times)

None of them are Avengers? Only Black Panther is there... The remaining two are IW and Endgame so

[expensiveho]

2 minutes ago, Nero said:

None of them are Avengers? Only Black Panther is there... The remaining two are IW and Endgame so

The Avengers as in the 2012 film, obviously. 

[Boxofficerules]

Shouldn’t it be Cheerleaders: Oldgame?

[doublejack]

5 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

Another thing nobody really talks about for some reason is that in the last 20 years, movies at home have either gotten cheaper or not increased at all in price but have massively increased quality while movies in theaters have outpaced inflation in many cases.

 

I paid $20/movie for DVDs in the late 90s when they first came out. I routinely get deals on 4K and 4K digital movies for $10-15, and never pay above $20, so they’re still the same price at worst as they were 20 years ago. But 20 years ago I saw movies in theaters for $6-7 for night showings of any film. Now I’m paying $12. That’s creeping awful close to the actual price to OWN the movie.

 

Now combine that with the fact 20 years ago we waited 6-9 months to get a movie on standard definition DVD, now we wait 3-4 months for a movie on 4K. That’s a pretty enormous series of motivators to just stay home unless it’s a huge movie. That’s 3 separate factors driving home viewing - pricing, quality, and timing.

 

The price point to have a good home theater has come way, way down as well. It used to be $2-3K for a midrange TV or projector and another $1-2K for a good sound system. High end setups were $10K+ for the projector and a several more thousand for the rest of the equipment.

 

Now, you can get a pretty big 4K TV with HDR, OLED even, for less than $2K. Projectors are much less expensive and better quality. You can get a THX certified 7.1 system for $500.

 

I don't presently have a TV (the five year old threw a butter knife in a fit of rage and broke the screen) but I did have a 55" Samsung 4K unit that I got for less than $300, and it blew away the $1,500 42" plasma set it replaced.

 

College and pro sports in the US are suffering attendance issues for the same reason. The viewing experience is so good at home, and the beer and snacks so much cheaper, it doesn't make a lot of sense to go out.

[SLAM!]

So, I suspect that the big battle, box office wise, was between Endgame and Detective Pikachu. Safe to say, Endgame won that battle. And that's okay. Disney will be able to fund originals with the money they're making from Endgame, and, for Detective Pikachu, $58M on Opening Weekend is nothing to sneeze at. Detectice Pikachu will have the honor of being one of the highest grossing films that never hit #1, and it already has the honor of breaking the video game movie curse. So it's a success.

 

In other news, The Hustle was lucky to get even as much as it did. It might have a chance at a total above $30M if it's able to maneuver around its competition.

 

I'll let you in on something: I'm rooting for Sony to have their 2019 grosses reach past one billion (as it did last year with the aid of films like Jumanji, Venom, and Hotel Transylvania 3). So while The Intruder isn't the best film, I'm really happy that it's doubling its budget and making as much as it is. Sony's small films have as much of an affect on the yearly gross as their bigger films, so I'm happy about this. Here's hoping Brightburn is a bit of a sleeper hit.

 

Speaking of films with less than a 40% decrease, there's Long Shot. Word Of Mouth seems to be kicking in. That's excellent for a deserving film such as this! Here's hoping theaters decide to keep it.

 

I hope Breakthrough can leg its way to $42M. Its relevance is waning so I'm willing to imagine theaters will want to get rid of it, though, in its favor, it seems to have more staying power than La Llorona.

 

Us has a chance to reach $175M DOM!

 

Anyways, onto the specialty box office; while I'm not sure if they are good expansions, let alone exemplary ones, I do find the expansions of The White Crow and Shadow to be encouraging. Shadow, especially; many of Well Go USA's films that they distribute domestically have barely any marketing, and therefore fail to even reach over one million in the specialty market--even last year's South Korean thriller Burning couldn't get over that number--so I really want to see Shadow reach that number.

 

The Mustang is confirmed to be able to reach five million domestically, which is notable. It'll have outgrossed both The Rider and Lean on Pete. The niche grows!

 

And Neon's documentary Biggest Little Farm had a great debut! Over $100K in five theaters. Not too shabby. Neon placed this trailer in front of films like HtTYD: The Hidden World, so they're definitely trying to position it as the Next Big Documentary, and a debut like this bears creedence to the plausibility!

Edited May 12, 2019 by Slambros

[thedast]

1 hour ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

What i see is that people will start to stop watching mid-size films like comedies or action films in theatres if Netflix or other streaming services are releasing such films or will have them on their services in 2-3 months. 

 

The issue is that Netflix cannot make a film like Endgame or films like the mega Disney blockbusters coming out this year.

 

That is why Disney has gone for the tentpole focused releases.

 

 

Was writing something similar. I think over time theatres will become more of a prestige thing. Like only the super big productions will get a cinema release because they're only ones with enough spectacle and budget to get butts in seats.   Maybe 2 a month. Everything else gets some fanfare release on streaming. The age of the movie star carrying multiple blockbusters is already dead. After all at one point people used to watch a lot of plays, now it's a once in a while (if ever) thing on Broadway. Not sure how that would work for actual theatre revenues though. And in it's own way it's kinda sad because this is the least 'social' iteration of consuming entertainment. Sure 50,000 people are livetweeting your Netflix release on it's premiere day, but all the interactions are happening through a screen.